2007 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 1

Through the first two rounds I’m 35-13. So far, 11 of my 16 teams made it, 7 of my final 8 are alive as well (thanks a lot Rick Barnes) and all the Final Four picks are still intact. And I feel like I should get extra credit for being right about Wisconsin only being average all season long. I should also get credit for nailing the exact Kansas-Kentucky score on Sunday. You know what…I’m giving myself an extra win for that. Make that record 36-12. My game, my site, my rules.

Now we get to the games that are nearly impossible to pick because of the near equality of the two teams playing. I’ll put the ol’ record on the line and try to pick them anyway.

San Antonio Region
Alamo Dome

*The Predictor Game of the Day*
#3 Texas A&M Aggies (27-6) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (32-3)
Memphis still hasn’t played a power conference team since December. That is an incredibly long time. Still, their win over Nevada was impressive in two ways. One, the Tigers proved they could play defense, especially on the perimeter. Marcelus Kemp and Ramon Sessions were non-factors. Two, their offense was able to execute their secondary break numerous times against big man Nick Fazekas. This was the first time Memphis was able to dunk and layup their way through a game against a decent opponent since the early months of the season. In wins against Gonzaga (in February) and North Texas, Memphis’ offense looked herky-jerky. But if any of you were able to see the game last weekend against the Wolf Pack, you saw the very fluid and exciting offense that John Calipari’s teams have been known for. That is a great omen for Memphis.

Now Memphis gets their toughest test, by far, in quite awhile. The Aggies are the best team that Memphis has played since last year’s regional final game against UCLA. The backcourt of Acie Law IV and Dominique Kirk will easily handle the Willie Kemp Antonio Anderson combination. Josh Carter and Chris Douglas-Roberts should neutralize each other. They are two completely different players. Carter is more of a perimeter shooter, while Douglas-Roberts goes inside. It is unlikely that either one of them will be able to stop the other on the offensive end. The key matchup for Memphis is on the inside. If Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier use their athletic advantage and are able to break down the slower big men of A&M with the secondary break, then this game becomes very interesting.

If Memphis becomes undisciplined (the reason they lose most of the games they do), forced to play a perimeter game, and gets frustrated if A&M decides to slow it down, this game won’t be close. Conversely, if Joseph Jones gets into early foul trouble, the Aggies don’t have the talent inside to stop the dunk and layup show that Memphis can put on. And Jones has fouled out something like one in every four games during his college career.

The pick here is A&M. They are a chameleon of a team. They can win shootouts. They can win slow down, rugby-scrum games. They can win by pressing. They can win by playing straight up man-to-man. The only place they’ll be at an obvious disadvantage is if Jones is forced to sit and Dozier has his way at power forward. Other than that, the Aggies should be able to handle anything the Tigers throw at them.
Pick: Texas A&M 78, Memphis 71

#5 Tennessee Volunteers (24-10) vs.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (32-3)
After watching Tennessee’s first two games, I can’t remember why I picked them to lose to Ohio State. True, they have no answer for Greg Oden. Then again, what team does? Oden isn’t going to score more than 20-25 points. This game should come down to perimeter play and perimeter shooting, and in that regard, it will be difficult for the Buckeyes to keep up.

So will I change the pick I made in my locked bracket? Um, no. Ohio State does have height advantages at four of the five starting positions and on the bench. That has to count for something, right? Plus Ohio State, like all these miserable Big Ten teams, is able to get the game played at their pace. And pacing is everything for Tennessee. Virginia was able to slow Tennessee down at times with a constant changing of defenses. This is when the Vols struggled and allowed Virginia to get an eight point lead. When Virginia started pressing, playing man-to-man, and started speeding the game up, Tennessee went on a run that the Hoos never caught up from. I’m assuming that Thad Matta won’t make the same mistakes that Dave Leitao did. Look for Ohio State to shoot their way to a lead, then grind their way to a second half victory.
Pick: Ohio State 81, Tennessee 76

San Jose Region
HP Pavilion

#4 Southern Illinois Salukis (29-6) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-4)
The Salukis haven’t scored 80 points in a game all season. That is bad news when facing a team that scores 80 points with some regularity. That should give you some sense of how much of a disadvantage SIU is looking at in this game.

Now I hear of you yelling at me that I don’t know anything about SIU. “They’re one of the best man-to-man team defensive teams in the country. Ain’t no way anyone going to score 80 points on them. What is this nut job talking about? I bet he hasn’t watched one of their games this season.”

Look, I know all about SIU. They do play defense. I will even go as far as saying that they are one of the three best defensive teams in the country. The way that they play team defense with pride should be shown by every coach, on every team, in the country. However, SIU is doomed to die the same death that Wisconsin did. If you can’t score, you can’t win. Eventually a team is going to put up 70 (or more) against SIU and I don’t think they’ll have an answer. Their three biggest wins came twice against Virginia Tech and on the road at Butler. Neither of those teams has anywhere close to the ability that Kansas does.

Now, will Kansas have an easy time scoring 80 in this game? No, they probably won’t. Nor will they have to. Kansas plays excellent defense as well, as Bill Self’s Big 10 influence is finally starting to take effect. As long as Kansas puts 70 on the board, they’ll win this game going away.
Pick: Kansas 72, Southern Illinois 58

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers (29-7) vs.
#2 UCLA Bruins (28-5)
Speaking of defense…how about this game. The inventor of this ridiculous basketball theory of “overwhelming defense will win us any game no matter who we are playing because they can’t score 60 points or more against us” takes on the one person he directly taught that ridiculous theory to. Ben Howland spent several years building Pittsburgh on defense, defense, defense, the occasional jump shot and more defense. After bolting to UCLA, Howland left Jamie Dixon in charge at Pitt. Dixon has taken great defense and terrible to non-existent offense to a new level. Meanwhile, this defense only style of play has sprung up at places like Wisconsin, Southern Illinois, Washington State, Butler and elsewhere. Sure these teams all made the tournament. Sure, most of these teams will be repeat tournament visitors. And if just making the NCAA tournament is your goal, than this defense only style can get you to the tournament in a rather boring manner. On the other hand, none of these teams are ever going win six games in a row because THEY CAN’T SCORE.

So while this boring basketball keeps springing up around the country, Howland has ironically changed his modus operandi. While still sticking with his defense first idea, Howland finally figured out that he needed a couple of scorers to win games in the postseason. The result has been a trip to the finals last season and, if you look at my picks, another trip to the finals this year as well.

I have no problem with winning based on defense. I have no problem with coaches making that the staple and main trait of their team. But you have to be able to put up 70 points a game to win and go very deep in this tournament. Wisconsin couldn’t do that. SIU won’t be able to do it. Pittsburgh won’t be able to do it either. Other than Aaron Gray, who is completely dependant on others to get him the ball, Pittsburgh has no consistent threat to score at will and take over a game. UCLA has an outstanding trio of guards. They focus on and play defense first. But if they need to score, they can and they will. Howland finally understands that you must be able to put points on the board to win in March. Sounds simple, right? That is why UCLA will win this game. It looks as if the teacher still has something to show the student.
Pick: UCLA 65, Pittsburgh 56