Maryland Basketball: Wake Up Call

Maryland Terrapins (17-11, 7-6) at
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (16-9, 6-6)
Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum - Winston-Salem, NC

I’m not even going to spend any time on the loss to Miami. It was a thorough beating, one of the more one-sided losses Maryland’s had all season. And that’s saying something.

We turn our attention to the much discussed bubble. The Terps find themselves squarely on it. Most projections will tell you that Maryland would still be in the tournament today. I have to agree, although I can’t imagine Maryland as anything other than one of the final two or three teams to get an at large bid.

Earlier this season, I talked about how Maryland, despite all their problems, had one thing going for them. The ACC was supposed to be weak this season, so even though Maryland may not be great, they could still manage to find a way to win 8-10 conference games. Turns out that Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech were all much better than expected. So the ACC might not be as weak as I, or anyone else, thought it was in the middle of January (although I did say that any “bracketologist” giving the ACC only three tournament bids was insane…and I was right on that one).

While the state of the ACC may be better than previously thought, the state of the national “bubble” is weaker than usual. Thus, Maryland has found themselves another potential backdoor. At 17-11 and 7-6 in the conference, with an RPI in the mid-60’s, Maryland would normally be staring at three must win games and then at least one must win game in the ACC tournament. However, that clearly isn’t the case this season. Maryland must beat Virginia on the road. That’s an absolute must. If the Terps can’t win that game they don’t deserve to go to any postseason tournament. But the next two games at Wake Forest and then home against Clemson just warrant a split. Two wins in the next two games would pretty much seal a bid and make the ACC tournament irrelevant. So Maryland is still in very good shape.

Why is this? Well, take a look at the national picture. The ACC has only three teams that are pretty much assured of going (I’m counting Clemson despite the Oliver Purnell factor). Two of Maryland, Miami and Wake will make it as well. Counting Miami, that’s four for the ACC. The Big East has seven schools that are firmly entrenched in the NCAA’s (some may argue about the WVU Mountain-queers, but their closing schedule is very soft). The Big Ten has a solid four. The SEC has five. The Big XII has six (again, for argument’s sake, I’m counting Baylor). The Pac-10 has six. That’s a total of 32 teams from the power conferences. Subtract the six conference winners that get automatic bids, that’s only 26 at large teams. Conference USA will probably get one at large to go with Memphis. The Atlantic-10 will get at least one, if not two at large bids. The Mountain West and WCC will probably get one at large bid a piece. That leaves about 30 teams that have clinched, or are very close to clinching, at large bids.

So there are probably four bids completely up for grabs. Here are some of the teams Maryland is competing with for those four spots: Wake Forest, Ohio State, Syracuse, Villanova, the Atlantic-10 mess (other than Xavier, a team that’s getting in one way or the other, the Terps have to worry about Dayton, UMass, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph’s), New Mexico and Alabama-Birmingham. Maybe Western Kentucky. Maybe the actual Kentucky. Looking at those teams, other than Ohio State (a team that may not win again with their extremely tough closing slate), which team is more deserving of a bid than Maryland right now? I can’t make a logical argument for any of the others except New Mexico. And the Lobos just lost at home to BYU. Plus, this is all assuming that teams like Miami, Baylor, Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Houston all get bids. None of those teams are assured of anything yet. So there could be more than four spots available. The only thing that could sink Maryland, other than losing to Virginia, is if teams like Kent State and VCU lose their conference tournaments.

I could talk about the bubble all day, but I’m not going to. Maryland has a huge “bubble game” against Wake Forest to deal with first. The Demon Deacons have been playing much better basketball than anyone will give them credit for. And that was before they embarrassed the mighty Dookies. Playing for the memory of a dead man (see Redskins, 2007-08 season for precedent) has proven to be the spark that Wake needed after two years of scraping at the bottom of the conference. It’s hard to root against these guys just like it was hard to root against the Redskins in December.

For the last two seasons, we were all told that the late Skip Prosser was restocking the fridge at Wake, but the results weren’t showing that. What they did show was a team that had wasted the senior seasons of Justin Gray and Eric Williams and a team that was getting younger and younger each season. However, this year appears to be the turning point for the Deacs. Whether they make the tournament or not, this year has been a success in Winston-Salem. James Johnson has been a real find, contributing 15 points and 8 rebounds per. Jeff Teague, another one of the many freshmen, has also chipped in 13 points a game. L.D. Williams and Ishmael Smith have both improved. Chas McFarland is probably a year and 20 pounds away from being a dominant center in the ACC. He’s well on his way. Quick around the basket. He also looks comfortable around the basket for a big man. There’s a lot to like about this Wake team in the next couple of years.

The one major problem is experience. There are no seniors on this roster, which means no player on Wake Forest has ever played in the NCAA tournament. In fact, of the juniors, only Harvey Hale ever sees the court for substantial periods of time. So the Deacs are .500 in the ACC with freshmen and sophomores. How long can this team keep their heads about them? Especially with a rookie coach on the sideline.

After tonight’s game, Wake Forest has a relatively easy closing stretch. I hope that Wake wins three of their final four, grabs a game in the ACC tournament, and makes a shocking NCAA bid. It would be an incredible story. I just hope that they don’t get this one.

Maryland 77
Wake Forest 73

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/25/08

The latest Top 25

1. Tennessee (25-2), LW-2: They earned it with a win at Memphis, but despite dominating the boards in that game, the Vols have struggled inside at times this season. That’s a concern going into next month.
2. North Carolina (26-2), LW-3: Two easy wins and a Memphis loss leads to a one spot bump in the poll.
3. Memphis (26-1), LW-1: The two spot drop is a combination of their loss to Tennessee, and two close calls in the weak CUSA.
4. UCLA (24-3), LW-5: I’ll say it again, the healthier this team gets, the more invincible they look. And the more dangerous they become. The Bruins may be the country’s most complete team.
5. Kansas (25-3), LW-4: Loss to Oklahoma State was their first bad loss of the season. Even though they lost to Texas (on the road in the two teams only meeting), I still think they’re better than the Longhorns.
6. Texas (23-4), LW-6: However, after months of playing mediocre basketball, Texas has really proved they are a team worth watching over the last two weeks.
7. Vanderbilt (23-4), LW-8: I smell an upset on Tuesday when the Vols come to town. You heard it here first.
8. Stanford (22-4), LW-9: Now that Robin Lopez is playing as well as his twin, the Cardinal have what amounts to the best front court in the nation.
9. Duke (23-3), LW-7: Yeah, that out-of-conference win against St. John’s (RPI 142) really impressed me. Lucky I didn’t drop the Dookies further down because that game should never have been played in the first place.
10. Xavier (24-4), LW-10: They are playing in an awful lot of close games for a team that’s in the Top 10. I know URI, UMass and Dayton are all supposedly good, but somewhere along the line, the Musketeers have to blow one of these teams out.
11. Louisville (22-6), LW-14: Continue to be the best team in the Big East…even though that’s like saying they’re the smartest kid on the short bus.
12. Indiana (23-4), LW-19: I may have been too harsh on the Hoosiers last week. Now that Kelvin Sampson is gone, I can’t put them a little higher.
13. Georgetown (22-4), LW-15: We’ve already seen how bad the Hoyas are against good competition. So how much money did Big John pay to have a closing stretch that contains Providence, Cincinnati and St. John’s?
14. Connecticut (21-6), LW-13: Slip up against desperate Villanova is just a bump in the road I believe. One loss can’t erase a 10-game winning streak.
15. Wisconsin (23-4), LW-18: Still don’t like the Badgers (since we all know they won’t win more than one tournament game). But, they’ve recently beaten Indiana and Ohio State on the road.
16. Drake (24-3), LW-21: Big movers in the Top 25 this week. I know they lost to Bradley (by a point), but the man-handling of Butler on the road outweighed that loss.
17. Washington State (21-6), LW-12: The Cougars continue to have no bad losses, but they keep losing at home. The loss to Arizona was their fourth defeat in the Palouse.
18. Butler (25-3), LW-11: Final score was not indicative of how soundly Drake beat them on Bracket Buster weekend. That game should be preview of what’s to come in the NCAA tournament for both Bulldogs
19. Purdue (21-6), LW-17: Guess I can’t fault them too much for a loss at Indiana.
20. Notre Dame (21-5), LW-23: Beating the teams they should, but since beating Marquette a few weeks ago, they haven’t played anyone of significance.
21. St. Mary’s (23-4), LW-20: Played well for 35 minutes against Kent State. Must have forgotten about the last five.
22. Michigan State (22-5), LW-NR: Back in with two easy wins and a bunch of teams ahead of them losing.
23. Miami (19-7), LW-NR: Pretty good week for the Hurricanes. They have a huge game Wednesday with Clemson.
24. Texas A&M (20-7), LW-16: The loss to Texas doesn’t worry me. The loss to Nebraska does.
25. BYU (21-6), LW-25: The Cougars are still (but only by a very small amount) the best team in a very competitive Mountain West.

Next Up: Marquette, Arizona, UNLV, Clemson, Kansas State


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina
Big East (7): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Miami replaces Wake Forest, but other than that, no changes for the power conferences this week. The Maryland-Wake game on Thursday may be a de facto play-in game (more on that later this week). Syracuse is still on the outside. California and Oregon have played their way out. Mississippi State, Florida and Baylor continue to hang on by a thin thread.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (3): Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Houston, Memphis
Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Notes: Saint Joseph’s had a terrible loss to La Salle last week. At this point of the season, a loss to a team with a sub-200 RPI is the kiss of death. UMass jumps into the tournament as a replacement. The rest of the majors stay the same. Still think Houston and New Mexico find ways to sneak in.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Sun Belt: South Alabama
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Boise State

Notes: I see a theme here. No changes other than South Alabama replacing Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt. Let me say this one more time…the Sun Belt will only have one team in the tournament. Any bracket expert telling you otherwise is sorely mistaken.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Niagara
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Lamar
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: Oral Roberts

Maryland Basketball: On The Road Again

Maryland Terrapins (17-10, 7-5) at
Miami Hurricanes (18-7, 5-6)
BankUnited Center - Coral Gables, FL

The loss to Virginia Tech is right along the lines of Maryland’s home loss to Clemson in 2005. That season, the Terps were up and down most of the way, but were starting to get hot down the stretch (with a win against Dook as the premier victory), and really only needed two wins over the course of the final five games to seal a tournament spot. The Terps had a stern home test with North Carolina and tough road game against NC State. So getting those two wins wouldn’t be easy. But the one game that everyone was counting on was a home game against lowly Clemson.

In that game, Maryland came out emotionless. They fooled around with an inferior Clemson team and gave them chance after chance to win the game. Eventually, Clemson took them up on one of those chances. The Terps couldn’t grab a rebound down the stretch, Clemson shot lights out in the final 10 minutes and Maryland lost by four. Sound familiar?

The loss to Clemson led to three more losses to end the regular season before losing to Clemson again in the first round of the ACC Tournament. As a Maryland fan, and as a senior, the home loss to Clemson was probably the toughest to take. As hard as all the losses to Dook in 2001 were, and as tough as some of the early tournament exits back in the mid-90’s were, the home loss to Clemson sunk Maryland’s season and was the number one reason they missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in 12 seasons. And it was a game that Maryland should have won going away. It was an odd feeling watching that Clemson game. You could tell that Maryland didn’t come to play. You could feel the season slipping away despite several games left to go. It was a sense of hopelessness, depression and anger all wrapped into one. I don’t think I’d ever had that feeling watching a sporting event before, and I hadn’t felt it since. Until Wednesday.

The loss to Virginia Tech was almost identical. The way Maryland played. The way they allowed a bad opponent to hang around until that opponent took advantage of one too many mistakes. The timing of the loss (Maryland lost that home game to Clemson on February 22). The amount of games left in the season. The way the rest of the schedule sets up. Maryland’s record then and now are almost the same. It’s frighteningly parallel.

Obviously I’m getting ahead of myself, but I couldn’t shake the feeling that this was the beginning of the end for Maryland’s season. I say that as a person who never gets too worked up after losses or too excited after wins. One game is just that. It’s one game and it means very little in the big picture. But all the problems Maryland’s had throughout the course of the season (and they’ve had quite a few) all reared their heads at some point during this game. Inability of anyone other than Greivis Vasquez and James Gist to score? Check. Long spells without scoring at all? 1 field goal in 22 possessions qualifies. Stretches where Vasquez feels the need to take every shot and force every pass? Yep, 7 turnovers from the point guard. Bad perimeter defense? Just in the last five minutes, but it was crucial. Lack of bench production? Zero – count them – zero points from the entire bench.

I’ve been saying this the entire season. As James Gist goes, so go the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps are 0-6 when he doesn’t score 10 points or more. 7 points against UCLA, 9 against VCU, 8 against Ohio, only 3 against American, 9 at Dook and only 7 points on Wednesday. All of those games ended in losses (most of them not close). That shows how important Gist is to the offense and how completely dependant upon him Maryland is. Vasquez is going to score his 20 points. That’s great. But if Gist struggles, no one else steps up. You can’t rely on one player to carry the team. Look at Virginia. Sean Singletary can go nuts and Virginia will still lose by 15. Opponents are more than happy to let Vasquez score 20. As long as he forces shots and as long as Eric Hayes continues in his funk and as long as someone from the bench doesn’t step up, it doesn’t matter what Vasquez does. But if Vasquez and Gist are scoring, not only does it make Maryland nearly impossible to defend, it makes everyone else on the team better. The best defenders are reserved for those two, and if they are drawing the attention, that means more open shots for Hayes, Milbourne and Osby. Right now, defenses are willing to let Vasquez score 20 points, let him turn the ball over on bad passes and they’re not letting Maryland’s limited supporting cast beat them. Why worry about Gist if Vasquez and Hayes can’t get him the ball? Gist has to put at least 15 points on the board if Maryland expects to win. When Maryland won 11 of 13 games, Gist averaged over 18 points a game. In their 10 losses, Gist averages 11. When Gist is in the game, Maryland’s offense is tough to stop, and the Terps are tough to beat. Otherwise, it’s the Vasquez Show, and teams have been willing to let that show occur.

Alright, enough. On to Miami. Maryland faces one of the teams that habitually gives them trouble for the only time all season. After three straight losses to Wake, Dook and FSU, it appeared that the Canes were going to fold up tent and call it a year. But they’ve won three straight games by a combined five points to storm right back into the NCAA tournament discussion. Five combined points in three games doesn’t sound great. However, considering those games were at both Techs, and then a thriller against Dook at home, those wins are rather impressive for a team that hasn’t gotten a big win since entering the conference a few seasons ago. Miami will be a motivated team, since their conference record of 5-6 is still not good enough to compliment the overall record of 18-7.

One thing is working in Maryland’s favor. Miami played probably their best game of the season on Wednesday against the Dorks. Whereas Maryland faced a Virginia Tech coming off a 39-point loss to UNC and couldn’t possibly play worse, the Terps face a Miami team that scored 96 points and at one point led the vaunted Dookies by 20 (before the refs tried their hardest to help Ratface). The Hurricanes couldn’t possibly play much better than they did Wednesday. They are primed for a letdown. The closest they came to 96 points in a conference game before their contest against the Nerds was an 82-point effort in a lopsided loss to UNC. The Canes average 74 points a game in conference, but if you take away their outburst on Wednesday, the point production is right around 70. I don’t think we’ll see another effort like that today.

However, the Hurricanes don’t need a 96 point effort if Maryland’s offense continues to struggle. And I think they will. Miami has a lot of big bodies inside. They are a very physical team, exactly the type of team Maryland has struggled with in years past. When Maryland was losing to Clemson in 2005, that Tigers team was almost identical to this Miami team. A bunch of big men inside with limited skill, but terrific rebounders, combined with one or two decent shooters. Anthony King, Dwayne Collins, Jimmy Graham and Brian Asbury, players that have given Maryland problems in the past, are all still in Coral Gables and are all still filling the rebound category on the stat sheet. Combine four physical power forwards with two decent shooters in Jack McClinton and Jamie Dews, and Maryland could be in for trouble. You beat Miami with speed and depth. Maryland possesses the first, but certainly not the latter.

I’m going to pick the Terps because I have faith in this team bouncing back. I’m not basing this on what I saw Wednesday night, or what I’ve seen the past three games, but on what I’ve seen overall the past two months. Get James Gist going early, which will be tough against all the wide bodies, and then finish Miami off with threes in the second half (which they have trouble defending). Hopefully the loss to Virginia Tech was a fluke, and not a case of history repeating itself.

Maryland 74
Miami 71

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY
Boston College at Florida State
The Eagles are still playing? I feel like they just take the court once every few weeks to lose to Virginia. Let’s go with the home team that has more than one capable scorer.
Pick: Florida State 83, Boston College 71

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
While the Techsters of Georgia may be far better engineers, the Techsters of Virginia still have something to play for on the basketball court. And their arena doesn’t have a major leak. Pretty embarrassing and ironic for one of the better Technological Institutes, don’t you think?
Pick: Virginia Tech 80, Georgia Tech 66

SUNDAY
NC State at Virginia
The Wolfpack put up a pretty good fight against UNC, but even though the effort was commendable, the result was not. That loss effectively ended any chance they had left at making the NCAA tournament. But, since Virginia isn’t playing Boston College, I’ll take the Pack.
Pick: NC State 75, Virginia 73

Wake Forest at North Carolina
The Deacons are playing with a lot of confidence and are a young team that doesn’t know any better and doesn’t know they should lose this game by 25 points or more. I have a feeling they’ll keep it close, but they’ve had seven days off between this game and their banner win against the Dookies, and that’s too long of a layoff.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Wake Forest 81

Maryland Basketball: Winner's Mentality

Virginia Tech Hokies (14-11, 5-6) at
Maryland Terrapins (17-9, 7-4)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

You have to be careful what you wish for. The last Maryland post was a long diatribe on wanting to see more from the freshmen on the bench. Well, because of severe foul trouble on Saturday afternoon, that wish was granted. And they didn’t look all that good. I was hoping that Gary would give some of the reserves chances to play on the road in the next couple of weeks, but I didn’t want to see a lineup of Bowie-McAlpin-Milbourne-Neal-Dupree on the court with a few minutes to go in the first half and Maryland trailing Florida State at home by a few possessions. Not what I had in mind.

Fortunately, Maryland put on another stellar second half, righted the ship, and won by an uncomfortable 10 points. I kind of saw this average performance coming. Heck, my predicted score was only one-point away from the actual score. Florida State had too many players that could get hot from the outside. In this case, it was time for Ralph Mims to have a career game. Put Mims on the rather long and continually growing list of “ACC players who do nothing all season until they play Maryland and then have an once-in-a-lifetime game”. Or APWDNASUTPMATHAOIALG for short.

Anyway, Maryland survived a stern test from a game Seminoles team and lived to tell about it. So I guess no harm, no foul (known to ACC officials as no harm, but there’s a foul whenever I feel like calling one in the second half or whenever Dook is on the court). Hopefully the Terps stopped reading all the glowing press clippings from media outlets and started focusing on the task at hand. Maryland is in prime position to nab a tournament spot, but they have a long ways to go. I think it’s safe to say that if the Terps win four of their final five, they’re in the Dance no matter what happens at the ACC tournament. However, a 9-7 or 10-6 conference mark, combined with a first round exit in Charlotte, should make all Terps fans nervous on Selection Sunday. The Atlantic 10 is trying to finesse Xavier and four mediocre teams into the NCAA’s. And they’re awfully close to doing it. The Mountain West could grab three bids. The WCC is going to be a two-bid league for the first time in awhile. The Sun Belt may be as well. Teams like Oklahoma, California, Oregon and Mississippi State are going to get unexpected bids from the power conferences. So there are fewer available spots than you might think.

Aiming for three wins in the final five games is, as Greivis Vasquez said, “a loser’s mentality”. The Terps have the ability, should they choose, to win at least four of the last five, do a little damage in Charlotte, and earn themselves a 5 or 6 seed. Or they could aim for three of five with a quick exit from the ACC tourney, and earn themselves a 9 seed or worse. Up to them.

Right now, it appears that Maryland will be either the 3 or 4 seed in Charlotte, which means potential games with Georgia Tech, Wake Forest or Virginia Tech after a first round bye. Which brings me to tonight’s game. I’m not going to spend too much time talking about this tilt. We’re going to try and keep this post short. Virginia Tech beat Maryland at home by a single point way back on January 12th. The only team that the Terps of lost to since are those rejects from Durham. So a lot has changed in the past 5 weeks.

Initially, Virginia Tech looked like a team that would be able to overcome the losses of Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell and make a run for a NCAA bid. Since January 12th, the Hokies have fallen back to the pack with losses to Georgia Tech, NC State and Miami. Last weekend, the Hokies suffered a 39-point loss to North Carolina without Ty Lawson playing a single minute. The lack of adequate backcourt play and the lack of talented depth have drained Tech of almost any chance at a NCAA bid. Now all Maryland had to do is land the knockout punch.

While Tech doesn’t have a lot on the bench, they’ll throw nine or ten guys on the court every night. The only three players that the Terps have to watch out for are resident thug Deron Washington (whose Mom is threatening to overtake Eric Williams’ mother for most annoying ACC parent), A.D. Vassallo and Jeff Allen. Washington can be handled pretty easily. Don’t let him catch the ball inside, and he’s useless. Vassallo, as he did in the last meeting in Blacksburg, is going to shoot a whole bunch of threes. Which means he’ll probably be somewhere around the perimeter all game. Someone find him. Allen, when not busy shoving refs, is a major threat inside on the offensive and defensive end. He’s got a lot of talent, but it appears that Allen also enjoys a lot of Big Macs. I have a feeling one of two things are going to happen with Jeff Allen as his career progresses. He’ll either play his way into the NBA, or he’ll eat his way out of the ACC. Right now, it appears the latter has a much better chance of happening. Gary, this game would be the prime opportunity to allow Shane Walker and Braxton Dupree to get some minutes inside facing an equally inexperienced power forward for Tech. Use Boom for about 26-28 minutes or so, and let the other two rotate in as necessary. I would love to see this. Please make this happen.

The Maryland team that lost to Virginia Tech was completely different from the one the Hokies will face tonight. The home court advantage will be at least a 6-8 point swing. Maryland’s improvement will also be another 6-8 point swing. There should be no problems here.

Maryland 75
Virginia Tech 62

Elsewhere in the ACC…

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina at NC State
This is the last stand for Sidney Lowe and company before we officially declare the Wolfpack one of the major disappointments of the 2007-08 campaign. Like I said they’d be.
Pick: North Carolina 82, NC State 64

Duke at Miami
Here’s a brief recap of Ratface during the second half of the Wake Forest game:

Dook goes up 5: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench.
Wake Forest goes up 1: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench with finger over mouth.
Wake Forest goes up 8: Cut-away, Ratface scratches his toupee, says five words to Johnny Dawkins
Wake Forest pulls away: Cut-away, Ratface sitting on bench with finger over mouth.

Great coaching there buddy.
Pick: Duke 78, Miami 71

THURSDAY
Virginia at Georgia Tech
The Cavaliers possess two ACC wins. They’ve both come against Boston College. Poor Al Skinner. He misses Craig Smith.
Pick: Georgia Tech 74, Virginia 69

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/18/08

Here’s the weekly Top 25, complete with the tournament bids below.

1. Memphis (25-0), LW – 1: Very close win against UAB almost caused them to fall. Poised to fall with a loss at home to Tennessee.
2. Tennessee (23-2), LW – 2: For the first time in awhile, my top 2 are the same as the major polls. Vols are also poised to fall depending on Saturday’s result.
3. North Carolina (24-2), LW – 5: Remember, they’re doing this with their two point guards out of the lineup and with several other guys playing hurt.
4. Kansas (24-2), LW – 2: Hard to blame them for a loss at Texas. Probably won’t lose more than four times before the NCAA’s.
5. UCLA (22-3), LW – 6: Got revenge for their earlier loss to USC. This team is starting to get healthy and starting to look dangerous.
6. Texas (21-4), LW – 15: Now I believe in the Longhorns. An impressive week for Texas that came complete with a home win against Kansas and a tough road win at Baylor.
7. Duke (22-2), LW – 4: Overdue for a loss considering that that they’ve still yet to play well for an entire 40 minutes. Not all that surprised that it happened at Wake.
8. Vanderbilt (22-4), LW – 10: Only four losses (all on the road) and a historic blowout of Kentucky (the ‘Cats had 11 points at halftime). They are talented scoring inside and out. The Commodores defense is far above average. So why are they as low as 20 in the AP polls?
9. Stanford (21-4), LW – 7: Grinding out a win at Arizona is more important to me than losing a close trap game at Arizona State. NO ONE wants to face the Lopez twins next month.
10. Xavier (21-4), LW – 13: Hesitant to put Butler in the top 10, so the Musketeers jump them instead. I know, not the best of reasons.
11. Butler (24-2), LW – 12: Of all people, I should be sold on the Bulldogs (considering what they did to Maryland last season). However, I have a hard time putting them this high despite their gaudy record.
12. Washington State (20-5), LW – 14: Two easy wins against the Oregon schools. Considering one of those “easy w’s” came at MacArthur Court, they get a bump in the rankings.
13. Connecticut (20-5), LW – 17: Now comes the “Big East Conglomerate”. These three teams are interchangeable at the time being. I’m ranking them now based on how they’ve played lately, not what their overall profile is.
14. Louisville (20-6), LW – NR: The team that I picked to win the Big East is finally playing like it. Even though they are a full game worse than Georgetown, they just beat the Hoyas so they go ahead.
15. Georgetown (20-4), LW – 11: Starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. If it wasn’t for Bob Donoto and Karl Hess, they would have lost twice last week.
16. Texas A&M (21-5), LW – 8: As soon as I put A&M in the top 10, they fall at home to Oklahoma State. That would be their second bad loss of the season, so even though I like the Aggies, they have to fall hard.
17. Purdue (21-5), LW – 22: Now it’s time for the “Big 10 Conglomerate”. It’s basically a lesser version of the one above it from the Big East. Purdue has only lost once in conference play, they’re ranked on top.
18. Wisconsin (21-4), LW – 25: This feels right for the Badgers. It was a good week for them with a win at Indiana.
19. Indiana (21-4), LW – 9: Falling in the rankings for what’s taking place on the court (home loss to Wisconsin) as much as what’s taking place off the court.
20. St. Mary’s (22-3), LW – 20: The Gaels hang out at #20 for the third straight week.
21. Drake (23-2), LW – 18: Finally have the opportunity to drop Drake behind St. Mary’s since the Gaels beat them a few months ago. But, congrats to the Bulldogs on clinching their conference crown.
22. Kansas State (18-6), LW – 16: Puzzling loss to Texas Tech followed by an equaling puzzling win (a 37-point win) over Missouri.
23. Notre Dame (19-5), LW – 21: I’m really indifferent to this team. They have a good record, but they’re not in the top tier of Big East schools.
24. Clemson (19-6), LW – NR: Road win at NC State proves to me that this Clemson team won’t fade completely down the stretch. You hear that Ollie?
25. BYU (20-5), LW – NR: Starting to pull away from UNLV and New Mexico in the wild Mountain West.

Next Up: Houston, Marquette, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Mississippi State


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until before Selection Sunday. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 10 (5): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Notes: Wake Forest makes an appearance because they now have a quality win to go along with their decent record. Their RPI is catching up too. If they hold serve at home and win an ACC tournament game, they should get in. The Big East, Big 10 and Big XII are pretty self-explanatory at this point. If Syracuse has a big week, they may jump in next Monday. USC and Arizona State are going in for the Pac-10 at the moment, but Oregon is not. Likewise, Florida is in for the SEC while Ole Miss is not.

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (3): Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Xavier
Conference USA (2): Houston, Memphis
Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

Notes: I keep seeing Dayton and UMass from the A-10 getting bids. Both are 5-6 in their conference, and there is no way a team from a non-BCS conference is getting bid with sub-.500 conference record. Houston has done enough outside and inside of CUSA to earn a spot at this point. New Mexico is knocking at the door, but they’ll need to make a run in the conference tournament to get a bid.

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Kent State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Boise State

Notes: These are usually the most competitive conferences because no one is sure how many bids they’re going to get. You could make a case for South Alabama in the Sun Belt. You could make a case for George Mason in the CAA. You could make a case for Creighton in the MVC and Utah State in the WAC. However, because the A-10, CUSA and MWC are all getting multiple bids (when in past years, they didn’t), the true mid-major conferences are going to get squeezed. Because of this, I only see the WCC as a two-bid league at this level of conference at this point and time.

SMALL
America East: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: Oral Roberts

Maryland Basketball: Fool In The Rotation

Florida State Seminoles (14-11, 3-7) at
Maryland Terrapins (16-9, 6-4)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

It’s only been twice, and Maryland has had the slight edge in the series recently, but I’m already sick of losing to those bunch of scrubs. Great time for the Terps to play their worst game in a month. Dook really didn’t do anything special. In fact, they really didn’t win the game. Maryland just handed it to them. Gee, maybe after the 20th time White Stiff spots up from the top of the key, someone should go guard him. May want to look into doing that next time. For every off-balance shot Greivis Vasquez made, he missed two others. I don’t care if had 20-plus points. He cost Maryland several key possessions. And how in the world does Dave Neal manage to outscore both Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne? Dook didn’t force Maryland into playing badly. Maryland forced Maryland into playing badly. Way too many wild shots, missed open looks and failure to guard the perimeter. Any ACC team would have beaten Maryland on Wednesday. Well, maybe not Virginia.

Ok, that’s off my chest. Other than the recent poor performance, which I will overlook considering the overall play of the past five weeks, there is a disturbing that’s starting to emerge. The lack of bench production is starting to catch up to Maryland. There are plenty of guys who come off the bench. It’s not like Gary has really shortened his rotation any. It’s just that most of the freshmen have gone from giving 10-12 solid minutes to giving 10-12 minutes. The freshmen have just become bodies that Gary can use when the starters need a blow.

The bench scored 11 points against Dook, which is actually better than they had been doing the last several games. The Terps reserves scored 4 points against Virginia, 12 against Georgia Tech, 5 against Boston College and 5 against NC State. That’s an average of 7.4 points from the bench over the course of the last 5 games. Not good.

It’s great to see most of Maryland’s starters scoring double-digits game after game. Obviously you’d rather have your starters have great games than the players on the bench. But ultimately, Maryland is going to need 12-17 points of production from their bench if they are going to succeed down the stretch. It’s great to see that Neal, Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie are still getting a decent amount of playing time in the conference schedule. They just have to do something with it. Otherwise, Vasquez and Gist are going to continue playing at least 35 minutes a game. And we’ve seen what happens when teams go into March with a seven-man rotation (just ask the Dookies). I think we saw some of that fatigue from the Terps in the last game. Maryland had their opportunities after they cut the Nerds’ lead to two in the second half. But the players were tired, their legs were dead and the open jump shots didn’t fall.

The problem for Maryland is they can’t fool around in the next six games if they hope to go the NCAA tournament. The Terps finish with two home games against FSU and Virginia Tech, two road games against Miami and Wake, a home game against Clemson and road contest at dismal Virginia. Normally, over a weak stretch like the one Maryland has, this would be the perfect time to experiment with some of the guys on the bench to see if they have what it takes come March. But this is where the Ohio and American losses really hurt Maryland. Those losses no longer damage Maryland’s RPI (Ohio is comfortably in the Top 100 and American is in first place in the Patriot League). However, those two losses have already rung Maryland’s total up to nine and we’re only midway through February. Maryland, at least in my mind, needs to win four of the next six games and an ACC tournament game to make the real tournament. That would put Maryland at 21-12, and with the Terps’ RPI and strength of schedule, that should be good enough. But Gary can’t afford to fool around the rotation at this point because he’s facing a bunch of must win games.

That brings us to Florida State for the first time this season (Again, I will point out how much I hate the expansion era schedule. Maryland has yet to play FSU, Miami and Clemson, and they’re more than halfway through their conference slate. Bring back the round-robin please). Leonard Hamilton has once again taken a team with some talent and molded them into a team that ranks in the bottom third of just about every statistical category, and in the bottom third of the ACC standings. FSU has lost to Cleveland State (not as horrible as they usually are) and two pathetic Big East schools in Providence and South Florida. No one should lose to South Florida (tough break Boeheim, your season is over). Their three ACC wins came at Georgia Tech (by two), at Miami and home against Virginia (also by two). Meanwhile, they’ve had double-digit losses to Carolina, Dook (in a game that was very close for about 38 minutes) and Clemson as you might expect. But they also have lopsided losses against Virginia Tech and TWICE against Wake. Eeesh (By the way, I just noticed I used a ton of parentheses in that last paragraph. Here’s another one for you).

FSU will be playing shorthanded on Saturday since our old friend from Isaiah Swann from Germantown tore his ACL last week and is done for his college career. They should also be playing further shorthanded, but the ACC decided not to suspend Ryan Reid for the punch he threw against Chas McFarland of Wake Forest on Thursday. While his five points and four rebounds probably would not have been missed, he does play 22 minutes a game and is a big body on a team filled with shooting guards and small forwards. That leaves three other players of note: Toney Douglass, Jason Rich and Uche Echefu. Echefu is a decent rebounder and gets most of his 10 points off putbacks. But he is foul prone and will have a tough time stopping both Gist and Boom inside even with the presence of Reid. Toney Douglass is a terrific scorer who can create his own shot on the perimeter or on the blowby. Douglass is one of those guys who is “going to get his”, so Maryland shouldn’t try anything fancy by doubling him. He is also one of those guys who lights up Maryland every season. Let him have his 20 points and contain the rest of the team. The X-factor is Rich. If he gets going, and he does shoot 44%, then the Seminoles have two guys who can score, and that may open up other opportunities for guys like Ralph Mims. That’s when FSU becomes dangerous. Rich and Douglass scored 53 of the Noles’ 70 points against Wake. But Wake stopped everyone else and won. So guard Douglass straight up, don’t risk doubling up and allowing Rich to get hot.

If there was ever a game to press, this is the one. FSU averages 16 turnovers a game and even though Douglass and Rich are both scorers, neither of them are real comfortable taking the ball up court and getting the offense set. The press worked wonders against a similar NC State team in the second half. I’d try it again.

This is the most important game for Maryland so far. Bigger than the NC State game which they had to win before traveling to the foul depths of Durham. The Terps cannot afford to lose these next two home games and cannot afford to have a losing streak at this point of the season. This is still a young team with only one true senior. Momentum is a tricky thing to hold on to, especially with a young team. They managed to recover nicely from the first Dook loss, and they’re going to have to do it again. This is a very beatable team that is playing on the road and basically playing out of the string of their schedule. The Terps need to show that the loss to Dook was only a bump in the road and not the end of it.

Maryland 81
Florida State 72

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Will any healthy player on UNC please stand up. If you can. Assuming you don’t have a leg injury. Other than Tyler Hansbrough, the rest of their starting lineup is playing on a game-to-game basis. It shouldn’t matter here, but until Carolina gets healthy, they’re going to be in a lot of close games.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Virginia Tech 76

Clemson at NC State
Even though I picked Clemson to beat Georgia Tech the other night, I was kind of hoping we’d start seeing that patented Tigers collapse. Clemson disappointed. They handled Tech pretty easily. Look, if you gander at the rest of Clemson’s schedule, there is absolutely no way they should lose more than three games until the beginning of the NCAA tournament. Which they should be a part of. This one, however, reeks of a close loss.
Pick: NC State 74, Clemson 71

SUNDAY
Virginia at Boston College
For two teams playing out the string, I guess I’ll stay clear of Virginia on the road. In fact, I’ll stay clear of Virginia anywhere at this point.
Pick: Boston College 78, Virginia 64

Miami at Georgia Tech
I keep hearing that Miami has a good chance to make the tournament. How exactly? Yes, the 16-7 record looks good on paper. Yes, the RPI in the top 50 is good too. However, they’re 3-6 in the conference and currently reside in 10th place. And I would bet on them not moving too much higher in the standings. No way does a 10th place team from any conference make the tournament.
Pick: Georgia Tech 80, Miami 68

Duke at Wake Forest
Wait, Duke has to play a road game? I don’t believe it. I know they have to travel to Maryland and UNC every year, but other than that they get to stay at home, right? Wake has been a good story so far. 15-8 far exceeds expectations considering what the program went through in the offseason. I still don’t think they’ll make the tournament with their remaining schedule. But I’m rooting for them.
Pick: Duke 85, Wake Forest 78

Maryland Basketball: Yea, Though I Walk Through The Valley Of The Shadow of Dorks, I Will Fear No Cheer Sheet

Maryland Terrapins (16-8, 6-3) at
#2/2 Duke Blue Devils (21-1, 9-0)
Juan Dixon Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC

Welcome back. Nice to see you could pull yourselves away from the “riveting” Congressional hearing today to check in with me. Oh, you didn’t watch any? Well, join the club that consists of 350 million Americans, all of whom could care less about any of it. I really believe the only people who are paying attention are members of ESPN. Did Roger Clemens take steroids? I don’t know. I do know the guy is a greedy asshole who thinks only of himself and could care less about any of his former teammates. And that was before the whole steroid issue came into light. So if he’s truly guilty, then he got what was coming to him.

Speaking of getting some comeuppance, how about Kelvin Sampson. I’ll admit that when I started this page several years ago, I was a big Sampson fan. I believe I even stated as much when I talked about Sampson and Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament. I’ll be the first to tell you that I was completely wrong on this guy. He got busted at OU for more than 500 illegal calls and contacts with recruits. Over 500! Then, as the program is about to go under, he bolts for Indiana and leaves OU to their own devises. Less than two years later, it comes to light that Sampson, during his short time at Indiana, has made another 100 illegal calls to several players. At what point should an athletic director come up to Sampson’s office and unplug the phone? A couple of questionable phone calls I can understand. It’s impossible to sift through the mammoth legislation of the NCAA and know exactly what’s legal and illegal. But more than 600 illegal calls over the course of a 5-6 year span? That’s inexcusable. The good news is that it appears Sampson will be taken down this time. There will be nowhere for him to hide, no other job for him to bounce to. He either goes down with the ship at Indiana, or disappears and goes down by himself. Either way, I think Sampson is on his last legs as a NCAA coach.

Speaking of slimeballs, Maryland pays their yearly visit to Juan Dixon Owns This Indoor Stadium and drops in on one of the dirtiest coaches in the game. From Chris Carrawell to Corey Maggette to abandoning his team during the 1995 season, Ratface has seen it all and done it all. But this guy is bulletproof. His reputation remains intact. Even the bizarre lacrosse/stripper incident last year that prompted the NCAA to investigate the lacrosse program, and the athletic department as a whole, didn’t hurt Ratface. Mostly because the NCAA investigated every Dook sport but one. You guessed it. The NCAA didn’t spend one second looking into the Dook men’s basketball program. Can’t imagine why. Is that because they already know what they would find and want to avoid the headache of one of the most famous coaches getting his reputation thrown through the mud? Congress should have a hearing on this.

Conspiracy theories aside, there is a basketball game to talk about. The Dorks, despite being a team with two obvious and glaring flaws, continue to win. It is so frustrating to see these weaknesses and then watch as teams refuse to exploit them. No team is more guilty of doing so than Maryland. After pounding the Dookies inside for the entire first half of the January 27th meeting (with great success I might add), the Terps abandoned this approach and fell in love with the three. Not surprisingly, the Terps went cold. Even though Maryland shot 54% for the entire game, the shooting percentage in the 2nd half was decisively lower than the shooting percentage in the first. The long shots away from the basket led to easy rebounds for the Dookies, and despite being much smaller and less physical, the Blow Devils out-rebounded Maryland 22-15 in the second half. The easy rebounds led to transition points for Dook and helped the Nerds shoot 53% in the second half on way to a 93-84 win that Maryland could have easily prevented.

So, considering that Maryland has already lost to these fucks once at home, what chance do they have on the road? Valid question. Have the Terps suddenly become 10 points better or the Dookies 10 points worse? Not likely. But you have to remember that as much as Dook outplayed the Terps in the second half, Maryland just as easily outplayed the Dorks in the first half. The potential to outplay Dook is there. Maryland just has to put it together for two halves.

The first half of that game was a dunk and layup show for the Terps. If Maryland goes inside early AND often, they should win this game. Dook didn’t have an answer for James Gist and Boom Osby in the first game, and I guarantee you they haven’t found an answer on their roster in the past 17 days. Freshman White Stiff is 6’8”, but he hates playing inside. Gerald HenderScum and his Elbow don’t mind getting dirty (as he’s show repeatedly over the last couple of seasons), but he’s only 6’4”. So is Half Nelson. Even though the Dookies out-rebounded the Terps 22-15 in the second half, Maryland held the rebounding edge 20-6 at halftime. That’s right, the Dookies had a grand total of six rebounds at halftime in the last game. The only reason the numbers switched around was because Maryland’s inside first strategy disappeared.

Gist has been on a monster tear, and there’s no reason to think he can’t duplicate his 26-point performance from last game. Greivis Vasquez has also been red hot, so look for his modest numbers in the first game to go up. Eric Hayes only had eight points and Landon Milbourne only contributed seven. Both players are finally healthy and have scored in double digits several times in that last few games. Conversely, there is no way that HenderScum is going to score 23 again. Nelson can score, but I don’t think he’s good for another 27 point effort. 16 points and five rebounds seems more likely. There is no way Nolan Smith is going to score 14 off the bench. While I would expect Ugly-Ass Scheyer to score more than four points on two-for-seven shooting, and maybe Freshman White Stiff will score more than seven (or maybe not, since Gist absolutely shut him down in the last contest), I don’t think Dook’s good for another 93 point outburst. Somewhere in the high 70’s/low 80’s is more like it (and now that I’ve said that, expect the Dookies to put up 100...me and my jinxes).

Maryland, if they go inside, should be able to keep up with the Dookies. I’m sure there will be times that Ratface’s Floor-Slappers will go on a mini-run, the Caffeinated Geeks in the seats will get all riled up and Maryland will feel compelled to shoot threes to keep up or quiet the crowd. If they fall into that trap they are going to lose. If they worry more about what’s on the cheer sheets than who’s covering Screamin’ Scheyer, they are going to lose. If Vasquez feels more compelled to taunt the Nerds in attendance than causing Greg The Human Turnover Machine to do what he normally does in big games, than the Terps are going to lose.

We know Maryland can establish their game. We know Maryland can play their game. They have to do it for 40 minutes. Not 20, not 30…40. If they do so, the Dookies do not have the talent to stop them inside. No forced passes. No three-pointers with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. Shut down the perimeter, but not at the expense of guarding the paint and exploiting one of Maryland’s greatest strengths and one of the Dookies greatest weaknesses. If New White Stiff and company start hitting three’s, it’s OK. Maryland should know exactly where to go to counter and get easy points (Unless, of course, the refs give Dook the Dook treatment. I'm sure that Karl Hess, fresh off handing Georgetown a win on Monday and UNC a win yesterday, will be looking to complete the weekly trifecta. If Hess isn't there, than regular Dook backer Ted Valentine will surely be on hand. I guarantee one of those morons, if not both, will be doing the game).

No visiting team plays better in this arena than Maryland. The virgins in the stands are not a factor to Gary Williams and company. They have no effect. Maryland plays better in hostile crowds against better teams. All the players have to do is trust Gary and his newfound inside game plan. All things being equal, this game is going to come down to the coaches. While Ratface may be able to out-recruit Williams, on the actual court, I’d take Gary 10 times out of 10. No active coach has won more big games against highly ranked teams than Gary. With the exception of last month’s second half, Gary has overwhelmingly out-coached Ratface over the course of the past decade. He’s ruined Dook’s senior days, he’s ruined winning streaks, he’s proven to the world that better Dook teams were not as great as all the analysts said they were. It would be fantastic, in the Chinese Year of the Rat, if Gary could hand the King Rat himself a loss and ruin his birthday party.

Maryland 84
Duke 80

Elsewhere in the ACC (just the scores version)…

NC State 68, Boston College 57
Florida State 76, Wake Forest 68
Clemson 88, Georgia Tech 75

The Predictor Top 25: 2/11/08

Third Top 25 of the year, and I even managed to do it before Monday’s games. Ah laziness...

1. Memphis (23-0), LW: 1 – Ho hum. Two beatdowns of SMU and UCF. Here until they lose.
2. Kansas (23-1), LW: 3 – Solid win over Mizzou and a better win against Baylor. In the game against the Bears, Kansas scored 100 points without making a three.
3. Tennessee (21-2), LW: 5 – Despite the escape against a motivated LSU team, the Vols move up because some other teams moved down.
4. Duke (21-2), LW: 6 – It would be nice if someone could beat these bums, because they’ve still yet to play a complete a game. They stay high until some team decides to play two halves against them (a team that plays them Wednesday, perhaps).
5. North Carolina (22-2), LW: 2 – Last week I said I’d be gentle towards Carolina until Ty Lawson comes back. But if they keep playing like they did in the first 35 minutes against Clemson, my leniency won’t last long.
6. UCLA (21-3), LW: 4 – Suffered their first bad loss of the season at Washington on Sunday. They didn’t look interested most of the way through. Still, this is an extremely talented team that won’t fall far, because you can convince me that there are more than six to seven teams better than the Bruins.
7. Stanford (20-3), LW: 7 – Blew out both Oregon teams this past week. While OSU is awful, Oregon has underachieved but still has talent. No way the Cardinal should have beaten the Ducks by 30.
8. Texas A&M (20-4), LW: 10 – Moved the Aggies up quickly. Not necessarily because they easily won both of their games this week. Not necessarily because other teams around them fell. I do it because they’ve seemed to fix their point guard issues. As long as their backcourt plays respectably, there’s no doubt A&M is a top 10 team.
9. Indiana (20-3), LW: 9 – Their escape in Champaign was much worse than Tennessee’s escape at LSU. There is no way Illinois should have been in that game. I don’t care how tough it is to play there.
10. Vanderbilt (20-4), LW: 14 – I know the 5-4 conference record isn’t great. However, six of Vandy’s last eight have come on the road. Now the tables turn and the Commodores get four straight home games. I expect four straight wins or this team will drop to where the other two polls have them located.
11. Georgetown (19-3), LW: 8 – The only good teams they’ve faced have beaten the Hoyas soundly. Just waiting for the losses to mount so they can drop out of the rankings completely.
12. Butler (21-2), LW: 12 – They trailed Valparaiso for the entire game before pulling out a last second win. Not impressive considering Bryce Drew no longer plays for Valpo.
13. Xavier (20-4), LW: 13 – Would have moved past Butler if it wasn’t for an awful performance and near loss to Saint Louis.
14. Washington State (18-5), LW: 11 – Loss to UCLA showed me that they’re not ready to be in the top 10. Convincing win against USC shows me that they should be in the top 20 somewhere.
15. Texas (19-4), LW: 15 – Sweated out a win at Iowa State, but I kinda saw that one coming. I’ve still seen nothing impressive or disparaging about the Longhorns so far.
16. Kansas State (17-5), LW: 18 – Finally, a team that took care of business this past week with two huge wins. Good to see that someone other than Memphis still does that.
17. Connecticut (18-5), LW: 23 – Nice win on the road at Syracuse and then a good out-of-conference win against pesky Georgia Tech. I’ll keep saying it, UConn is for real. Time to stop overlooking them.
18. Drake (22-1), LW: 17 – 22-1 in the Missouri Valley this season is not the same as 22-1 in the Missouri Valley two years ago. Sure they’re winning, but they have squeaked out an awful lot of close victories.
19. Michigan State (19-3), LW: 16 – MSU moves down because teams like UConn and Kansas State did enough to jump the Spartans. A win over Northwestern doesn’t get it done for me.
20. St. Mary’s (20-3), LW: 20 – I had the Gaels this high on Tuesday and that included the win over Gonzaga. Since then they’ve only played San Francisco, who they beat handedly. I know they handed Drake their only loss, but I can’t put them over the Bulldogs because of the two game difference in record.
21. Notre Dame (18-4), LW: 22 – Not exactly a convincing win over Marquette, but it got the job done. Road game at UConn this week will tell us a little more about the Irish.
22. Purdue (19-5), LW: NR – Just embarrassed Wisconsin on their home floor. That and a nine-game winning streak gets the Boilers in the rankings.
23. Arkansas (17-5), LW: NR – The Razorbacks are biding their time in the SEC. They have a nice little winning streak of their own, but they aren’t getting the attention that Tennessee and Vandy are receiving.
24. Baylor (17-5), LW: 19 – Predictable and necessary split against Texas Tech and Kansas. Played the Jayhawks tough on the road so they stay in the poll. Now the Bears have a bunch of winnable games in front of them.
25. Wisconsin (19-4), LW: 21 – I can’t get rid of the Badgers yet. Wish I could, but that 19-4 overall record is too good to ignore. A loss this week to Indiana might do the trick.

Next Up: BYU, Houston, Florida, Clemson, Rhode Island

Maryland Basketball: Hungry Like A Wolf...For A Home Win

NC State Wolfpack (15-7, 4-4) at
Maryland Terrapins (15-8, 5-3)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

First off, congrats to Gary on win #600. Another milestone for one of the best coaches in the game. How he isn't in the Basketball Hall of Fame by now is beyond me. Here's a coach who has won everywhere he's been, brought his alma mater back from the brink, won a National Championship, won an ACC Championship and now has plenty of wins to go with all the accolades. If that cheater Calhoun can make the Hall, how is Gary not in? Hopefully it will happen very soon (You can see how much I miss complaining about Art Monk not being in the Hall of Fame...I'm now resorting to whining about a Hall of Fame few care about). But congrats anyway coach. Here's to another and rapid 100 wins.

It hasn’t been pretty, but the wins are starting to pile up. Maryland continues to put tallies in the “W” column and continue marching up the conference standings. Another ugly second half and another double-digit lead nearly surrendered still added up to another victory. See no evil, hear no evil, write no evil.

I talked about it in my last game post. The inability to run away and hide in second halves against inferior opponents has yet to really cost Maryland a win. They blew the lead to Dook, but the Dookies are a notch better than Virginia, Georgia Tech and Boston College. As the Redskins proved many times this past season, if you play with fire enough, you are going to get burned. And with a team that is teetering on the fringe of the NCAA tournament, every single game and every single half counts at this point.

Currently, the Terps RPI sits in the high-50’s or low-60’s depending upon what source you go by. The losses to VCU and Ohio, which were once bad losses, can no longer be considered as much. Both teams are hovering right around Maryland in the RPI rankings (In fact, according to realtimerpi.com, Maryland is 60, VCU is 62 and Ohio is 63). So that three week stretch in December, once looked upon as a death knell for the Terps’ season, can now be upgraded to “early season struggles”. The only bad loss as far as the committee is concerned is obviously the loss to American. That loss too is starting to lose some sting. American is in the 140 range of the RPI (certainly not good, but still in the top half in terms of Division 1), and if they keep beating the best teams in the Patriot League, they may climb close to 100 by the time the season ends. Maryland really has to aim for the top 50 in RPI to have some confidence in an at large bid. And that 5-7 record against the RPI top 100 is not pretty. However, considering the hole the Terps dug themselves into at the end of December, they’ve done a pretty decent job of almost climbing all the way out of it.

The Terps seem to have several things working towards their advantage. We’ve talked about how bad the conference is on many occasions. And I really believe the ACC is very down this season. However, and I couldn’t believe it until I went through the numbers myself, the ACC is still the number one conference in terms of RPI. I have no idea how. Every single team except Virginia is in the top-100. Boston College and Wake are starting to slip, but every other team is comfortably in the top third of Division 1 schools. Dook and UNC are in the top 5. Clemson is 26, NC State is 40, Miami is 48, Georgia Tech is 68, FSU is 69 and Virginia Tech is 72. So every time Maryland beats one of those teams, and every time one of the teams Maryland has beaten beats one of those teams, the Terps’ RPI climbs even higher and they get another “quality win”.

Another thing Maryland has going for them is strength of schedule, which is another big factor in terms of tournament berths and tournament seeding. Just ask Jim Boeheim what happens if you team is highly ranked in the RPI but low in schedule strength. Maryland has currently played the 24th hardest schedule in the country and third toughest among ACC teams. In terms of the committee, it doesn’t necessarily matter that Maryland lost to Dook, it only matters that Maryland played Dook.

Furthermore, and probably most important, are all the corrections the Terps have made in the last three weeks. Most of the problems Maryland had in December have been corrected. Turnovers are way down. James Gist is playing inside. Boom Osby is staying out of foul trouble. The offense no longer revolves around Greivis Vasquez. If Vasquez needs to take over, he will. But if he’s having an off night (and he’s had a few), the rest of this team can pick up the slack. And I really don’t mind the fact that Maryland can’t put teams away and are playing close games. That at least means that Maryland has a lead to blow. That wasn’t the case a couple of months ago. The only weaknesses that haven’t been addressed are the inconsistent bench rotation, the occasional lapse in rebounding and, apparently, guarding John Oates (8-8 from the field…really?).

Now it’s time for another one of those fringe tournament teams to visit Comcast Center. Sidney Lowe brings his red blazer and underachieving Wolfpack to College Park in a biiiiiiiiiiiiigggg game for both teams. In fact, both teams resemble one another quite a bit.

After several years of making the tournament and getting bounced early under Little Herb Sendek, State decided to get rid of the Great Bald One and replaced him with former player Sidney Lowe. Lowe was quickly named the “NC State Savior” and then immediately proceeded to turn a team that annually made the NCAA tournament into a sub-.500 squad, but not before the Pack created trouble in the ACC tournament last season. For four-and-a-half months, State was dreadful. But on the second weekend in March, the Wolfpack won three games against higher seeded teams and almost won the whole damn tournament. They lost a close one to UNC in the finals.

Those four days were enough for national writers to overlook four months of futility and allowed them to anoint NC State as a Top 25 team entering the season. The Pack certainly fooled a lot of people, but not me. Here’s what I said about them back in November:

“Yes, this team is improving. But to pick this squad 2nd or 3rd in the ACC, which I’ve seen a lot of publications doing, is absurd. The Wolfpack went 5-11 in the conference last season. Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley are a solid tandem inside, but the backcourt without Engin Atsur is very unproven. Too much youth on this team. Give them at least another year, maybe more.”

And lo and behold, as quickly as the Wolfpack entered the Top 25, they exited a couple of weeks later. Two bad losses to New Orleans and East Carolina made sure of that. A lot has happened since then. State is improving. They're above .500 in non-conference play and they basically became the 28th member of the Big East (with narrow wins over Villanova, Seton Hall and Cincinnati). But there were too many close wins over far inferior opponents coupled with the two losses to terrible teams. Combine that with a slow start in conference play, and my prediction in November couldn’t be more correct. NC State is a team that is on the move up, but they are way too young to be considered serious contenders on a national or conference level. Plus, the move to fire Sendek and hire the unproven Lowe is still, in my opinion, a bad move. Sendek probably should have been let go. But NC State shouldn’t have botched the search for a new coach like they did (Before the Redskins went through every available candidate in the Western Hemisphere, the Wolfpack did the same a couple of years ago before settling on Lowe).

State’s profile is similar to Maryland’s. A couple of decent out-of-conference wins along with a couple of ugly losses. Both teams started poorly in conference play. Both teams have recovered. Maryland has won 9 of their last 11. State has won 3 of their last 4 and managed to climb back to a position where one can make the argument for them getting an at large bid.

The one surprise about NC State is that they’ve reached 15-7 with Brandon Costner playing poorly. Last season Costner averaged 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 2 apg. He shot 47% from the floor and 38% from outside. This season, his numbers aren’t just down. They’ve fallen faster than Amy Winehouse. He’s down to 9.4 ppg, 5 rpg and he’s shooting worse from the field (37%) this year than he shot from outside last year. He’s gone through a major sophomore slump. Costner is also injured and is 50-50 for the game. According to some NC State fans, that may be better for the team. Ben McCauley’s numbers have also plummeted. He went from 14 ppg to 6 ppg and from 7 rpg to 4 rpg. His shooting percentage has dropped 15%.

While J.J. Hickson and Gavin Grant have picked up some of the slack, State’s real problem comes from their lack of point guard. After eight seasons (or there abouts), Engin Atsur finally exhausted his eligibility. Lowe has yet to find a suitable replacement. Newcomer Javier Gonzalez and Marques Johnson have split point guard duties, but their numbers combined are below average. Together they barely average three assists per game.

The Wolfpack are improving and they are going to be desperate for a win. If they slow the game down and play typical NC State ugly-ball, they could win this game early. Then again, the Terps have to be desperate to protect home court. They’ve done a great job stealing road games, but they have to start winning at home. I love the thought of a trademark Gary Williams press harrassing a team that has no true point guard. Maryland has to get out in front early and force a team that’s only averaging 68 points a game to try and catch up. The Terps seem to have no trouble getting out to large leads. I don’t think NC State is a team that can comeback.

Maryland 77
NC State 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY

Boston College at Duke
Like Maryland, I think the entire conference has figured out BC. Limit Tyrese Rice and this is a very beatable team. Sure John Oates can occasionally put in 21 (ugh) and Shamari Spears will have some decent games, but if Rice is stopped, BC usually has no chance. That’s exactly what Vasquez did in the 2nd half, and the Terps held on for a win
Pick: Duke 82, Boston College 68

Miami at Virginia Tech
If the Canes want to rescue their season, now would be the time. The overall record is good. The RPI is good. The 2-6 mark in conference is not. Miami will have to finish .500 in conference to get a bid. Don’t think it will happen.
Pick: Virginia Tech 64, Miami 59

Virginia at Wake Forest
The Cavaliers are near a players’ revolt on Dave Leitao. Some of the comments the freshmen were making after their second loss to VTech were stunning. Accusing Leitao of benching them after one mistake, and openly praising Seth Greenberg in several major papers isn’t good for a coach who was living large after last season. Pretty clear now how important J.R. Reynolds was to this team.
Pick: Wake Forest 71, Virginia 67

Georgia Tech at Connecticut
Usually don’t dive into the non-conference games, but this is a big one for Tech and the conference. Tech needs a quality victory against one of the better Big East teams to keep their NCAA bid hopes alive and it would be another big victory out-of-conference for the ACC. UConn is a young team that has tons of momentum and confidence. Tons of young talent too.
Pick: Connecticut 85, Georgia Tech 70

SUNDAY

Clemson at North Carolina
0-52. Make that 0-53.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Clemson 81

Maryland Basketball: It's Like Deja Vu All Over Again

Maryland Terrapins (14-8, 4-3) at
Boston College Eagles (12-8, 3-4)
Conte Forum - Chestnut Hill, MA

So, it looks like Maryland is a team that’s going to get out to strong starts, fool around in the middle of the game, allow opponents to hang around, then either hold on for dear life for a win or collapse and lose. This sounds familiar. Where I have I heard of a team like this? Maybe it’s my imagination.

You moron! You’re talking about the Redskins. Stop being a smart ass.

Right! I’m sorry if I sound a little bitter here, but the Terps (for the past three weeks anyway) are acting just like the Redskins. I can’t take any more of this. I suffered through last football season with almost every single game being close. I would like it if just one of my teams could manage to take a big lead, and hold on to it the entire game. That would be really nice.

Why the Redskins were falling into that trap was pretty obvious. There is no need to go over it here because I went over it about five or six times over the course of football season. As for Maryland, the answer is a little trickier. First, we should probably remember that Maryland, for all intents and purposes, is still an average basketball team. Just because they run out to double-digit leads over Virginia and Georgia Tech doesn’t mean they are 10 or more points better than those teams. The recent second halves could just be Maryland and their opponent’s talent balancing themselves out.

However, the style Maryland plays lends itself to a strong finish to a game. Gary Williams uses a deep rotation and nine guys see significant playing time. With the up tempo style and a bench that sees plenty of minutes, Maryland should be stronger than most of their opponents in the second half. For whatever reason, and I can’t put my finger on it yet, Maryland recently seems like the team that’s getting gassed in the second half. Georgia Tech also plays 9-10 guys, so maybe Maryland’s pace didn’t effect them as much. But against Virginia and the Dookies, both teams that usually stick with the same seven players, this shouldn’t be happening.

Boom Osby, for as well as he’s played recently, can’t go more than 30 minutes. He is clearly getting tired out there. His 16-point first half against the Jackets was complimented (or not) by a 2-point second half in which his only points came on a pair of late free throws. Eric Hayes seems healthy, but he too has disappeared in the second half of games. The group of freshmen also seem to struggle second halves. Maybe that’s due to inexperience and nerves, or maybe it’s due to a lack of proper conditioning. I don’t know. Maybe this recent stretch is just a bunch of coincidences and not a long term theme for the season. We’ll have to see.

Meanwhile, despite the second half problems, the Terps continue to lurk around the top of the conference. If you haven’t noticed, Maryland is in a third place tie with Olie Purnell and the Tigers. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the ACC will get at least four teams into the tournament. I don’t care what Lunardi and company are saying (by the way, several “experts” have said the ACC would be lucky to get three), there is no way the powerhouse ACC is going to get less than four. Even in a down year, the conference’s reputation alone with garner four bids. Which means that there’s two bids out there for the taking.

This next five game stretch will be crucial. Maryland is at Boston College, followed by a home game against the suddenly dangerous Wolfpack, then a road trip to Juan Dixon Indoor to play our friends again, and then two home games against awful Florida State and Virginia Tech (a team that is starting to get exposed). With only one home game in their final four ACC contests, Maryland must win four of these next five games. That would put them at 8-4 going into that final quarter of the conference season. You have to figure that 10 ACC wins and one in the tournament would be enough to erase the losses to Ohio and American. You would figure. That would put Maryland at 21 wins. Hopefully that would be enough.

First things first…Boston College. We last saw the Eagles in early December in College Park. Maryland, due in part to a stupid technical foul on Greivis Vasquez, choked away a second half lead and allowed BC to leave Comcast Center with an 81-78 win. That’s a game that would look pretty good in the win column right about now.

Since then, BC has struggled in conference play. They started out 3-0, but have lost their last four. That includes giving Virginia their only conference win so far. That includes an ugly home loss to Virginia Tech. It includes two blowout losses at UNC and at Clemson. The Eagles inexperience and lack of a proven inside player (Oh, where have you gone Craig Smith and Jared Dudley, Chestnut Hill turns its lonely eyes to you.) have finally caught up to them. Tyrese Rice is a terrific point guard. Shamari Spears is a good inside-outside threat. But after those two players, there is a significant drop-off in talent.

Maryland has played well on the road so far this season. They knocked off a decent Charlotte team. They beat Georgia Tech. Heck, they beat UNC. Their only true road loss was a one-point screw up to Virginia Tech. As poorly as the Eagles have been playing recently, I’m forced to take Maryland again on the road.

Maryland 79
Boston College 72

Elsewhere around the ACC…

I know, I’ve gotten lazy and haven’t talked about the rest of the conference yet. My bad, I’ll try to do better the rest of the way.

Wednesday
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
Eventually, Wake Forest is going to start slipping down the conference standings. The Deacs are not a .500 ACC team yet. That may have to wait until next season.
Pick: Georgia Tech 82, Wake Forest 74

Florida State at Miami
How does Leonard Hamilton still have a job? The Seminoles started out the 07-08 campaign with a couple of quality victories. They’ve been followed with some absolute lay downs against poor competition. Miami is going the same direction that FSU is. So I guess I’ll stick with the home team.
Pick: Miami 67, Florida State 63

Duke at North Carolina
Without Ty Lawson, it will be a challenge for the Heels. However, I think Wayne Ellington will be just good enough running the point for UNC to win this one. Remember, the Dookies are one of the weakest inside teams in the country. All Ellington has to do is get it inside to Tyler Hansbrough enough and let him go for 25 and 15.
Pick: North Carolina 84, Duke 79

Thursday
Clemson at Virginia
This is a game that every ACC follower expects Clemson to win. Purnell appears that’s he has righted the ship after a couple of weeks of bad basketball. Virginia can’t buy a win and the players are starting to revolt on Dave Leitao. So this is the exact type of game that Purnell has made a career of blowing.
Pick: Virginia 78, Clemson 75

The Predictor Top 25: 2/05/08

The latest Top 25…sorry for the lateness, I’m going to try and do these on Monday’s from now on.

1. Memphis (21-0), LW: 2 – Here by default. It’s certainly not because of that last second win against UTEP
2. North Carolina (21-1), LW: 3 – Probably won’t beat Duke without the country’s best point guard. However, I’ll take notice of that injury and will judge UNC accordingly.
3. Kansas (21-1), LW: 1 – Loss at Kansas State not surprising in the least, nor is it in any way a bad loss.
4. UCLA (20-2), LW: 4 – Again, this is a team that will be even more dangerous than they are now when they actually get healthy.
5. Tennessee (19-2), LW: 7 – Big game against Florida coming up today. Since it’s at home, I like their chances. Their two road wins from last week vault them over the Dookies.
6. Duke (19-1), LW: 6 – Yet to play a complete game, but they’re playing at least one good half.
7. Stanford (18-3), LW: 11 – Nice win against Washington State on the road. Temporarily steal title of 2nd best team in the Pac-10 away from the Cougars.
8. Georgetown (18-2), LW: 10 – Move up because everyone else around them is losing. This team isn’t worthy of a ranking this high…if only someone in the Big East could play 40 solid minutes and knock them off.
9. Indiana (18-3), LW: 8 – Not all that worried about the loss to Wisconsin in Madison. It will be a different story if they lose to the Badgers again in two weeks.
10. Texas A&M (18-4), LW: 18 – Same on me for dropping to them to 18th last week. A huge blowout win over Texas shows how much talent this team has.
11. Washington State (17-4), LW: 5 – Here because of two straight losses. On the other hand, one bad week does not deserve a fall to 17th (which is where they are in the other polls).
12. Butler (19-2), LW: 13 – 1st mid-major on the list because they aren’t winning close games against inferior opponents. They’re just blowing them out.
13. Xavier (18-4), LW: 14 – Mid-major madness! Xavier moves here because I honestly don’t know what to do with them. I’d like to think they’d be better than Butler in the long run, but they haven’t shown it yet.
14. Vanderbilt (18-4), LW: 9 – Ok, so maybe I went a little crazy with Vanderbilt at the 9th spot last week. Just remember they’ve had a very tough starting schedule in the SEC. All of their remaining big games are at Memorial Gym, where they’re almost impossible to beat.
15. Texas (17-4), LW: 12 – Blowout loss at Texas A&M was followed by a less than stellar performance at home against Baylor. Despite the talent, I’m still not impressed with what I’ve seen from the Horns so far.
16. Michigan State (18-3), LW: 14 – That loss to Penn State is not as bad as it seems. PSU is better than they have been in recent seasons. They ugly loss to Iowa a few weeks ago was much, much worse.
17. Drake (20-1), LW: 19 – Lots of close wins, but in the Missouri Valley, that’s pretty much par for the course.
18. Kansas State (15-5), LW: 20 – Win over Kansas is more important to me than the loss at Missouri. However, at 15-5, KSU can’t suffer many more setbacks and get away with it.
19. Baylor (16-4), LW: 16 – Held their own at Texas and faded down the stretch. Some of that may have to do with the effects of their 5-OT game against A&M.
20. St. Mary’s (19-3), LW: 24 – One benefit of doing this on Tuesday is I’m able to account for the Gaels win over Gonzaga last night. And Marquette’s ugly loss as well.
21. Wisconsin (18-3), LW: 23 – If they didn’t play in such a lousy conference, I’d have them higher. But I refuse to rank a team too high that we all know will be bounced early in March.
22. Notre Dame (16-4), LW: NR – Starting to emerge from the mess that is the middle of the pack in the Big East.
23. Connecticut (16-5), LW: 25 – I really think the Huskies are a team that can make a deep run. All they are missing is experience. Which means next year’s team will be even better.
24. UNLV (17-4), LW: NR – Starting to emerge as the best team in the Mountain West. Again.
25. Clemson (16-5), LW: NR – On the list because I felt I had to include a third ACC team. Yeah, I’m biased.

Next up: Florida, Purdue, Arkansas, BYU, Houston

Maryland Basketball: A Conference With No Buzz

Maryland Terrapins (13-8, 3-3) at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-9, 3-3)
Alexander Memorial Coliseum - Atlanta, GA

For all those wondering, and I’m assuming that means all four of you, there will be no Super Bowl preview. I can’t stand either team. I can’t stand talking about either team. I’m sure that if you do frequent this page, then you’ve already seen ESPN’s non-stop coverage over the past two weeks (and in the Patriots case, the past four months) and there is nothing else I can add. The Giants are a flawed team that ran through a weak conference. The Patriots are a dirty franchise that don’t deserve to go 19-0 and get mentioned among the greats. I was about ready to let the whole Spygate thing go, but recent accounts has this cheating streak by New England going all the way back to 2000 and beyond. It’s incredible that they’ve been allowed to get away with this for almost a decade. The punishment handed down in September, which at the time seemed acceptable, now seems trivial when compared to the advantage the Patriots have received over the past eight seasons. So excuse me if I’m not excited about the game. For my personal record purposes, I have the Patriots winning 37-17. I think with all the hype the past two weeks, we’ve all forgotten how lousy the Giants really are when compared to the team they’re facing.

Anyway, to Maryland basketball. I don’t want to be the typical fan that analyzes Maryland’s chances to make the NCAA tournament after each and every game. To really believe that one win or one loss gets you in or out of the tournament is not the way a real fan should act. The overall body of work for Maryland is not good. They had a heck of a win over Carolina. They played well against Duke, save for the last ten minutes. The win against Virginia was nice too. Wins over Illinois, Charlotte and Holy Cross give them something to grasp on to in the out-of-conference action. But overall, the Terps are a 13-8 team, with a .500 conference record and losses to Ohio and American. The RPI of 80 is not bad, but it’s not good either. A win over Virginia is not going to change all the issues Maryland has on their resume. A win over Georgia Tech won’t do it. A win over Boston College next week won’t do it. If you want Maryland’s NCAA tournament chances to improve, then you’ll have to hope for a sustained run over the course of the next six weeks. And I’m not sure this team can do it.

Case in point: the game against UVA. The Terps get out of the gates red hot. Before Sean Singletary and his backup singers can settle in, they’re down double digits. The Terps couldn’t miss in the first eight minutes of the game. The problem is Maryland played inconsistently the rest of the way, and allowed Virginia to hang around in a game that should have been over by halftime. Some of those second half possessions were atrocious. At the ten minute mark of the second half, Maryland had a 12-point lead. So why in the world are Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes forcing shots 10 seconds into a possession? If you are up double digits in the second half, you better be eating up the shot clock. It was mind-blowing. That’s just some of the inconsistency I’m talking about. How can a team play so well for long stretches, then so poorly in the exact same game? Maryland possesses the talent to be better than 13-8, and they possess the ability to become the third team in the ACC to separate themselves from the pack. But it just seems like the team has mental lapses that prevent them from winning easily or winning at all.

However, like I’ve said all season, the Terps have one major thing working in their favor. This conference continues to be run by North Carolina, and the Heels are followed at a distance by the Dookies. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Every other team already has at least five losses and at least three losses in conference. Virginia Tech currently sits in third place, and they have a profile that’s worse than Maryland’s. Clemson and Miami are each 15-5 and have the best overall record of the rest of the conference, but Miami is an ugly 2-4 in the ACC and Clemson is in typical Oliver Purnell-induced conference swoon mode. The rest of the conference teams aren’t even worth mentioning. Maryland could be in third place if things bounce right around the ACC today. That’s incredible considering all the problems the Terps have had. And I don’t care what any “expert” or bracketologist says, the ACC is going to get at least four teams in the NCAA tournament. So there have to be at least two teams out there that can step up.

The Terps have two very winnable ROAD games against Tech and Boston College, and then get NC State (the same Wolfpack that were vastly overrated in November) at home. One team that could step up could easily be Maryland if this recent run of good play becomes consistent. During Maryland’s 7-game win streak late last season, they played a tougher schedule than the schedule they’re staring at this year. They only thing standing in their way are themselves.

Tech, for their part, has the same conference record and same problems outside of the conference. With losses to Georgia, Winthrop and UNC-Greensboro, it will take a hefty run for the Jackets to make up enough ground by mid-March. But they, like Maryland, have been playing a lot better recently. They took the Heels to the brink at home before falling on a last second shot in overtime. They also own three straight conference wins, two of those coming on the road. The Jackets are deep, with nine players seeing over 15 minutes of playing time. They score 78 points a game, a number that’s even higher in conference play. Anthony Morrow has turned into the team’s go to guy, with 15 points a game and a nice three-point shooting percentage of 45%. Jeremis Smith adds 11 and 7 a game. Lewis Clinch has hit several big shots. Just like the Terps, this team has talent. They just need to find a way to stop tripping over themselves.

Maryland has won the last five against Tech, but they’ve traditionally played poorly at the Thriller Dome. The noon start helps Maryland because the crowd won’t be in to it, or even in the arena. But again, Maryland traditionally plays poorly and shoots worse in early afternoon games. I’ll give this one to the Terps because James Gist is finally playing like a man possessed, Boom Osby is coming around and Hayes seems to be close to 100% healthy.

Maryland 81
Georgia Tech 76