2008 NCAA Tournament: Midwest/South Regional Finals

No big suprises last night, so the record goes to a cool 45-13. If I were a betting man today, I would put everything on Kansas. No way the NCAA allows Davidson to spoil a potential Kansas-North Carolina semifinal with Roy Williams facing his old team. Just call that a hunch.

MIDWEST REGION



#10 Davidson Wildcats (29-6) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (34-3)
Ford Field – Detroit, MI

I actually watched the entire UCLA-Xavier game despite the fact it was a blowout from start to finish. And if your wondering why I couldn’t find anything better to do early on a Saturday night (don’t worry, I’m wondering too), it was because I was spellbound listening to another edition of Bill Raftery. I have said many times, that Raft is by far the best color analyst in the business. First of all, the man knows what he’s talking about. Secondly, he delivers his knowledge in a way only he can. To call it unique would be an understatement. I always have the sound up when he’s calling a game, and I’ll basically watch whatever game it is. I always root for a close game because you never know when you’ll get a call like this (Listen to the whole clip…by the way, why Raftery and Gus Johnson don’t pair up more is beyond me). Raftery has fun calling the games, and the enjoyment he has at center court is relayed to the casual viewer. That’s what a color man should do. Dissecting the X’s and O’s is great, but adding excitement to the game is even better. I would love it if he could call my life. I even wondered what it would be like if he were here breaking down this game…

"You know Verne, the Predictor wanted to pull a Karl Malone and mail one today, so like the Four Tops, we’re off to Motown. On parchment Verne, it looks like a M&Mer. Maybe not the case. Davidson isn’t in Kansas anymore, but they’ve pulled a few surprises already and are salivating over the opportunity to do it again. When you talk about Davidson, you gotta talk about the little guy with THE BIG TICKER! Stephen Curry has been incredible Verne. He’s great off the dribble-drive. He can go with the blow-by, takes it to the tin and leaves a little lingerie on the deck as well. And he knows how to finish too…with the kiss, oh, the little SMOOCHER off glass! But Verne, when in doubt, just stroke it…and Stephen strokes it with the best of ‘em. This is a kid who has delivered Davidson from the cathouse to the penthouse, and with a little divine intervention, can do it again. "


Oh Verne, it's a visit from the BIG FELLA!

"But don’t be in a Rush to judgement. Davidson better bring their lunch. The Jayhawks are a team that can make you ask for your Mommy! Start with Brandon Rush, the all-around catalyst for the Kansas attack. He can do it all…might as well let him in the band. His partner in crime in the back is Super Mario. Mario Chalmers is a scrapper…does a lot of things that are unattractive but highly beneficial. Solid defender too. He’ll have the pleasure of guarding Mr. Curry, so when Stephen attacks…Mario better get in front of him and get those puppies set, Verne! And let’s not forget about THE BIGFELLA, Darrell Arthur. A force to be reckoned with inside…isn’t he a large edifice! Plays above the rim. He catches the ball in the post, and knows exactly what to do with it. Oh, send it in BIGFELLA!"

"The matchup to watch will be Curry and Chalmers. A lot of pressure on Mario to step up, fill the lane when Stephen takes it to the tin, and provide the defensive lift for his team. But I’m not sure you can contain the little guy with just one man. In fact Verne, I’d like to see Kansas open up in a 3-2 zone with mantoman principles. Bill Self could throw a wrench into Davidson’s plan. Take the pressure off of Chalmers…let his team carry him."

"Either way Verne, hide the women and children! Should be a good one. Kansas just has to remember to get it to the big fella inside. When the time comes let Brandon rush you off to the Final Four with some major…ONIONS! Look for the swingman to deliver the tear drops that will make Davidson cry. Brandon’s got to bring some early onions, and some second helpings later on. Oh Verne, I hope the Jayhawks like Tex-Mex. SEND IT IN, WITH THE KISS!"
Pick: Kansas 85, Davidson 76

SOUTH REGION



#2 Texas Longhorns (31-6) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (36-1)
Reliant Stadium – Houston, TX

Now that I’ve destroyed what little credibility I had, let’ move on. Here it is, the game that should be a red flag to the committee that’s something wrong with placing a team an hour or two away from their campus for a “neutral” game. Hopefully Louisville getting a virtual home game in Lexington last year against Texas A&M and Carolina getting four home games in Raleigh and Charlotte, combined with this odd bit of scheduling will get some changes made. Texas is the #2 seed, the lesser seed of the two, and will wear their burnt orange road uniforms. They won’t be the only ones wearing that color. In fact, most of the 50,000 on hand will be clad in it. So even though Memphis was only four points away from being perfect this season, in the process supposedly earning themselves whatever advantage the pre-arranged sites afford, they’ll have to play a road game just to make it to the Final Four. Doesn’t seem all that fair.

After watching D.J. Augustin play against Stanford, I doubt a team like Memphis can hold down the Horns. Augustin and A.J. Abrams terrorized the overmatched Stanford guards all game long. Despite Brook Lopez dominating the glass and almost single-handedly winning the game for the Cardinal, the Augustin-Abrams combination were too much.

Memphis does have Derrick Rose and Chris Douglass-Roberts. Both are just as quick as Augustin and Abrams, but neither of them play much defense. Against the quick guards of Tennessee, neither of them did much guarding. Tennessee’s guards also did a good job of crashing the boards in that game, and neither Rose or Douglass Roberts seemed intent on boxing any of them out. Second-chance points was the difference in that loss to the Volunteers. Augustin and Abrams may only be 6-feet, but they play much bigger. They love to go inside on drives and they also have qualms about going among the trees and grabbing boards. Again, I think second-chance points are going to be crucial in this game, and the guards of Texas just seem to want it more.

We’ve seen what smaller Texas can do against a team with two big men. They couldn’t stop Brook Lopez, who did whatever, whenever he wanted to. But they were able to contain and frustrate the enigmatic Robin Lopez. They held the lesser twin to six points. If Robin was able to put up similar numbers to Brook, that game probably goes Stanford’s way. The same problem presents itself in the game against Memphis. Robert Dozier is going to bring his “A-game” almost any time he steps onto the court. There is no one on Texas that is big enough and strong enough to stop him. The other forward, Joey Dorsey, isn’t invincible. He is easy to frustrate and easy to get into foul trouble…just like Robin Lopez. If Texas is able to do this, they only have to worry about Dozier and they have a good chance to compete with Memphis inside.

Other than eliminating the Joey Dorsey threat, two other things will be key. Firstly, Texas has become a team that’s nine-deep. This wasn’t the case last year when they stretched to play seven guys and they were known as the Texas Durants. The Horns are now deep and revolve around more than one player. Memphis has suddenly become a team that’s only seven-deep. John Calipari’s rotation, that looked pretty good in February, has suddenly disappeared in the tournament. That depth, especially since this will be both teams’ second game in 48 hours, will be crucial. Advantage Texas.

The second factor, and this was the dark cloud hanging over Memphis all season, is free-throw shooting. When the Tigers are blowing out Michigan State by 30 points, free throw shooting doesn’t make much of a difference. But, when you’re in a close game with guard-oriented Texas, free throw shooting is huge. Like most experts, I’ve been saying all season that free throw shooting would eventually doom the Tigers. They shoot a shade under 60% from the line, which was 339th out of 341 Division 1 teams. Poor shooting almost jumped up to bite them in a second round win over Mississippi State. In the final minute of that game, a 12-point Memphis lead became a 3-point advantage, and the Bulldogs had a last-second three go just a bit long. The Mississippi State game was just a little bit of foreshadowing for this one. Texas pulls this one out late when they hit their free throws and the Tigers don’t.
Pick: Texas 78, Memphis 73


This is actually a free throw attempt. Doesn't look good.

2008 NCAA Tournament: East/West Regional Finals

3-1 yesterday, but the team I really needed to win did not. With Stanford's loss, I'm offically sunk in my pool. That's what happens when you join in with 50 other people who actually know sports. Everyone basically had the same picks. I had a chance if Stanford made the Final Four and UCLA won it all...but it's not to be. I'm now 43-13 overall.

EAST REGION



#3 Louisville Cardinals (27-8) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (35-2)
Charlotte Bobcats Arena - Charlotte, NC
Hard to figure out if both of these teams are as good as they’re playing. I tend to believe Louisville is a bad shooting night away from going down in flames. As I said two days ago, they’re very streaky. Aside from a five minute stretch against Tennessee, they’ve played very well. But their track record indicates that they can’t keep beating teams by 20 points without having at least one bad game wedged in there.

I think Carolina is really as good as they’re playing right now. The first half of the Washington State game proved it to me. The Cougars double and triple teamed Tyler Hansbrough for the entire half. Wazzau completely shut him down, they had the game slowed all the way down, and they were forcing turnovers. It didn’t make a difference. Washington State played as well as they possibly could have in the first half and they still were down 14 at the break. That’s incredible. If you had told Tony Bennett that Hansbrough would have two points at the half, and Carolina would have eight turnovers, he probably would have assumed that his team would at least be within one possession of the Heels. Instead, the game was already over.

Carolina continues to prove they are more than just Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. The forgotten Wayne Ellington contributed 13 points, and Danny Green continued his hot shooting with 15 off the bench. This team can beat you so many ways. They have three legitimate three-point shooters, and a huge force inside. The WSU games showed that if you overcompensate guarding Hansbrough, that Carolina can just pass the ball outside and shoot their way to a win. Plus, Carolina has long been dogged as a team with no or little defense. I know Washington State isn’t exactly 1990 UNLV, but Carolina held them to only 47 points. I don’t care who you are or who you are playing…by the time we get to this point in the season, a 47-point defensive effort is phenomenal in my book.

Earl Clark and David Padgett are solid players. They can do what Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill managed to do to Hansbrough on Thursday. They can probably do it for two halves. I don’t think it matters. There’s a reason people keep saying Carolina is the best team in the tournament. It’s because they are. I just wish I had known that earlier last week.
Pick: North Carolina 83, Louisville 70

WEST REGION



#3 Xavier Musketeers (30-6) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (34-3)
U.S. Airways Center - Phoenix, AZ
The reason I wish I’d known Carolina was really the best team in the tournament is because the squad I thought earned that moniker hasn’t lived up to it yet. There was a point in their game with Western Kentucky on Thursday, that UCLA appeared on their way out. The Hilltoppers cut a 21-point deficit to three and had just forced Darren Collison to foul out. The Bruins were without their only real point guard, without any momentum and were 6 minutes away from being the victim in the biggest upset in the tourney thus far. WKU did all they could – they wisely pressed a point guard-less UCLA, they didn’t rush possessions, took open shots – but they simply had no physical answer for Kevin Love and Josh Shipp. Few teams do. Love and Shipp rallied the troops and helped the Bruins escape late.

The real question is, why did it take so long to finish off Western Kentucky in the first place? Most of Toppers comeback came with Collison in the game. This is UCLA. This is a team that ran through the Pac-10. Dominated a conference that had three teams make the Sweet 16, and three others had very tough first round draws. And they almost lost to WKU because Tyrone Brazelton had a good game. Really? A team that has three All-American talent players and at least two NBA draft picks on it almost blows a 21-point lead to Western Kentucky. What happened in the last two weeks?

Now they get Xavier. Again, here’s a team that the Bruins either have a size or speed advantage (or both) against at every single position on the court. Xavier possesses a whole lot of talented players. Josh Duncan has had himself a great tournament. Drew Lavender, who must be in his seventh year of eligibility, can still take games over like he did with Oklahoma. The Muskies have quality role players. But this isn’t a team that should be within 15 points of UCLA. At least the UCLA that played in the Pac-10 Tournament.

I like the Bruins in this game because Josh Shipp has finally arrived to the party. The only positive thing (other than a win) that UCLA can take from their last game is the performance of Shipp. After disappearing for most of the Pac-10 tourney and the first two games of the NCAA, Shipp almost single-handedly put the Hilltoppers away late in that game. We all know that Love and Collison are the two best players on UCLA. But Shipp is the most important. Not many teams have players that can guard a 6-7 swingman that is willing and able to drive inside and also shoot the lights out. Shipp needs to be aggressive and needs to exploit the mismatch that he’ll have against C.J. Anderson and B.J. Raymond.

The Bruins also need to establish Love down low. While Love has had a good tournament, he’s had to create a lot of points off second chance rebounds and jump shots. UCLA needs to feed him like Stanford feeds the Lopez twins and UNC feeds Hansbrough. When you have a wide 6-10 power forward, especially against mid-majors like WKU and Xavier, YOU HAVE TO USE HIM INSIDE.

Call it a hunch, but I think Ben Howland had a wakeup call watching his team in the second half against WKU. I think he sees the same things I’m seeing. Too much dribbling around the perimeter offensively has led to way too many turnovers, failed possessions and close games. I bet Howland gets his act together and UCLA pulls out another close one.
Pick: UCLA 76, Xavier 71

2008 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

A 4-0 night yesterday moved the record to 40-12. Now, we’re talking. Let’s see if I can go perfect for the regional semifinals.

MIDWEST REGION

Ford Field
Detroit, MI
#12 Villanova Wildcats (22-12) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-3)
Villanova beat #5 Clemson, #13 Siena
Kansas beat #16 Portland St., #8 UNLV
Unlike Davidson and Western Kentucky, Villanova is not a great story. This is a power conference team that was seeded way too low, finished in eighth place in a mediocre conference, shouldn’t have been let into the tournament in the first place, and has had a rather easy and undeserved trip to the Sweet 16. They beat Clemson, a team that had no previous tournament experience and showed as much in the closing minutes of their loss. Then they beat Siena, a team that was ridiculously hot in a first round upset of Vanderbilt, which meant there was no way they’d play like that two games in a row, and the Cats walked all over them. Sorry, not impressed. Please vacate the NCAA tournament i mmediately. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

Scottie Reynolds is a heck of a player. He is fun to watch. The rest of the squad is a typical Big East team, limited in the skill department, but abundant in size and strength. Better teams can beat them. Heck, teams like Davidson can beat them. Kansas is much, much better than Davidson, and Villanova is not as good as Georgetown. Their luck has run out, they’ll finally have to face a complete team.

Haven’t talked much about the individual matchups in regards to Kansas as of yet. That’s because I expected them to breeze to wins in their first two games. That won’t change here. No need to mention guys like Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. That analysis can wait until Sunday…or even next weekend. I like Kansas. I like them big. No spread in the world is big enough.
Pick: Kansas 92, Villanova 74

#10 Davidson Wildcats (28-6) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (31-4)
Davidson beat #10 Gonzaga, #2 G’town
Wisconsin beat #14 Cal St.-Full, #11 KSU
Boy, this region has two stinkers. The only way this game is remotely entertaining is if Stephen Curry goes off again. And that could easily happen. When Wisconsin played Kansas State, I said that Michael Beasley had a good chance of outscoring the Badgers by himself. The same applies for Curry. He could outscore Wisconsin if he gets hot enough and the Badgers go into one of their patented funks.

It’s worth mentioning that Curry has scored 70 points in two games so far. And those 70 points came against two very good defensive teams. Georgetown is a taller, slightly more athletic, but much dumber version of Wisconsin. So if Curry can score 30 against the Hoyas, he can do it against the Badgers. Michael Flowers is one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the country, but I’m not betting against Curry right now. Again, if he can score 30 on less than two days rest against a good defensive club, he can do it against Wisconsin.

Other than Curry’s 30, the most important thing to come out of Davidson’s win against Georgetown was the emergence of Andrew Lovedale inside. Those in the know were already aware of Curry and his backcourt mate Jason Richards. The concern of mine heading into the tournament was the complete lack of inside game from the Wildcats. That’s why I picked against them in the opening round. But Lovedale has come alive. Here’s a guy who only averaged six points and five boards during the season. Lovedale had 12 and 13 against Gonzaga and 11 and 7 against Georgetown. If he keeps up his play, and Richards and Curry keep their games up, that gives Davidson three legitimate threats to score. Anything Thomas Sander and Boris Meno give the ‘Cats is a bonus. Davidson can now be a balanced offense.

Wisconsin is the same team they’ve been for the last few seasons. Bo Ryan, who does deserve props for maximizing the talent he has in Madison, is coaching the most mind-numbingly dull team in the country. Like Dick and Tony Bennett at Washington State, Ryan will eventually learn that his team must score more than 60 points with some sort of consistency to every be considered a real threat to win a national title (although the Bennett’s resorted back to their old ways in their 47-point effort against defense-deficient Carolina).


This is what Billy Donovan will look like in 25 years.

When I see Wisconsin in the bracket, I immediately look for the first team that I think is capable of putting up around 70 points on them, and that’s where I usually have the Badgers leaving. Last year I thought it would be UNLV, and I was right. This year, I thought the USC/KSU winner would do it. Wisconsin proved me wrong. But they still have to go through a Davidson team that can score in bunches, dangerous Kansas and even more dangerous UNC just to get to the championship game. Do you really think they’ll be able to keep all three of those teams below 60 points? A team that is completely reliant on defense to win games can not win six games in the NCAA tournament. A team that can’t be counted on to put up 60 a game cannot and will not win a national championship. IT CAN NOT HAPPEN.

I picked Davidson to beat Georgetown, and I think Georgetown was slightly better than Wisconsin. As great as it was to see West Virginia send home Ratface, it was even better to see the Wildcats storm back from a big deficit and knock out Little Racist III. I will reward Davidson by picking them again. They made me look great on Sunday because I said they’d win 74-70 and Curry would score 32 (as I already established, he had 30 and the final score was 74-69). So hopefully they make it two games in a row.
Pick: Davidson 68, Wisconsin 61


Sorry you had to see Bo Ryan. Here's something to make it up to you.

SOUTH REGION

Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX
#5 Michigan State Spartans (27-8) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (35-1)
MSU beat #12 Temple, #4 Pittsburgh
Memphis beat #16 TX-Arlington, #8 Miss St.
Since the Spartans are still playing, let me finish my rant on great defense-bad offense teams. Look back at the last 10 to 15 years of national champions. Which of those teams was ever known for its defense? The answer would be none of them. Sure, most of the teams that have recently won the title played solid defense. But all of them could score. The last team to win it all with a famous defense was Arkansas’ “40 Minutes of Hell” in 1994, but that defense was set up to provide non-stop pressure to force turnovers and get instant offense. The Razorbacks were still a high-scoring team that season. Even Michigan State, who won the title in 2000, had guys like obnoxious Mateen Cleaves who could take over a game offensively.

These Big 10 and Big East teams that think they can get away with minimal talent because they hustle on the defensive end usually get tripped up by teams that score in the high-70’s or even low-80’s. Since the Big 10 and Big East have so few teams that can do this, this strategy works in the regular season. However, MSU no longer gets to face the Temples and Pittsburghs of the world. This is Memphis, a team that has five scorers on the court at all-times. The Tigers will be done in by their free-throw shooting, but it will take a close game for that to happen. Memphis won’t find that close game here. We’ll talk more about that on Sunday.
Pick: Memphis 76, Michigan State 64

***The Predictor Game of the Day***
#3 Stanford Cardinal (28-7) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (30-6)
Stanford beat #14 Cornell, #6 Marquette
Texas beat #15 Austin Peay, #7 Miami
Finally, a very interesting game. This may be the best game the entire tournament has to offer. I’m looking forward to this game so much, that the local CBS affiliate decided to show Davidson-Wisconsin instead. Ugh, looks like another night watching MMOD on the ol’ computer.

When it comes to seeding the NCAA tournament, and determining the last couple of teams that get in the field, I usually don’t care all that much. I find seeding irrelevant because if you somehow win six games in a row, you’re usually beating 3 to 5 really good basketball teams. No one gets an easy walk to the final game. And the last teams in the field rarely, if ever, make serious charges to the Final Four.

The problem that I usually have with the committee is the way they handle who plays where. If South Alabama is a 10 seed, they shouldn’t be playing down the road in Birmingham against a team that the committee thinks is better than them. How much sense does that make? Davidson should not be playing games in Charlotte. And Texas should definitely not be playing regional games in Houston. I understand rewarding top seeds like Carolina “home court advantage”, but other than the top seeds, the rest of the teams should be at some slight disadvantage. Let’s say you’re John Calipari. Would you rather be the #1 seed in Detroit, which is much further away from your campus…or the #1 seed in Houston, a city much closer to Memphis, but have to face #2 seed Texas in what is basically a true road game? I think Calipari would welcome a trip to Detroit, making him one of the few people in the entire country that would actually want to go to that city.


Just picture this stadium filled with burnt orange. How is this fair?

I know the sites are determined ahead of time, and that every once and awhile, situations like this can happen. But this happens three to four times every tournament. The easy solution would have been to take the #1 Kansas-#2 Georgetown combination, and move them to the Houston region, while taking Memphis-Texas to the Detroit region. There, problem solved. Neutral court for every team. You can not give teams with lesser seeds chances to play at home. It was possible, had Arizona beaten WVU and Dook, for the Wildcats to play their regionals down the road in Phoenix. The 15-loss Wildcats could have been playing virtual home games for the right to go to the Final Four. That can’t keep happening.

Stanford is the first team to have to deal with the burnt orange. After a great season in the tough Pac-10, the Cardinal deserve a little better than this. The crowd probably won’t be a big deal for the Cardinal, considering they have to play at places like Oregon, Arizona and UCLA every season. They should be well prepared. Teams like Memphis, that don’t see boisterous crowds all that often in CUSA, will be the ones that pay.

Let’s move on to the game. It should be a real good one. Like their game against Marquette, Stanford finds itself battling a team with much better guard play, but not a whole lot in the middle. The Cardinal had their way inside with the Eagles, as the Lopez twins combined for 48 points. Robin Lopez put most of his points up in the first stanza, while his better half struggled (while Robin may be the lesser of the two on the court, he’s apparently dating Michelle Wie off of it…so he’s one up on his brother in that category). Brook came to life in the second, and all the way into overtime, as he tallied the game winning field goal with 1.3 seconds left in the game. Both Lopez’s did whatever they wanted in the middle, as Marquette’s big men couldn’t even post them up without committing a foul. Along with Curry, the Lopez’s have had the best tournament to date.

The problem for Stanford isn’t so much the offensive play of their guards. In fact, their much maligned backcourt of Mitch Johnson, Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill held their own. Johnson had 16 assists in the win over Marquette (most of those going to Lopez 1 and Lopez 2), which was a second round NCAA tournament record. The problem for Stanford is the defensive play of their guards. As easy as the Lopez twins had it inside, Marquette’s three-guard rotation had it just as easy outside. No one in the Stanford backcourt could stop Jerel McNeal or Dominic James from driving or shooting the three. It was real exciting to see strength verses strength, and it took a last second shot for the Cardinal to win the most thrilling game of the tournament.

Texas poses a similar threat. As most fans know by now, the initial-twins of D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams are probably the best guard tandem in the entire country. The two combine for 36 points and 8 assists per game. Augustin is the most complete guard remaining in the tournament and is sure to be a lottery pick. He does it all. He’s a solid defender who can create his own shot outside or on the drive and he can pass the ball better than almost everyone else in Division 1. He has carried this team since the beginning of the season

Augustin is the reason Texas is here, but he’s also the reason they’re vulnerable. He has no true backup. So when he’s sitting, or when he gets in foul trouble, the Longhorns get lost on the court. When he’s having a bad game, Texas had no chance. As good as Abrams is, he cannot carry this team the way Augustin can. Even with Augustin in the lineup, Texas has been weak against physical teams. They’ve lost to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Texas A&M and Kansas (along with two curious losses to Texas Tech and Missouri). All four of those teams are good to great perimeter defenders, and all have an overwhelming advantage inside.

Stanford possesses that advantage inside, but not the great outside defense. Which makes this game, at least in my mind, a virtual tossup. The home advantage for Texas may actually put more pressure on the young Horns like Gary Johnson, Damion James and Justin Mason, all of whom play supporting roles to Augustin and all of whom have little to no tournament experience. Or it may completely overwhelm Stanford. I like what I’ve seen from the Lopez twins, and call me crazy, but I think that the Stanford guards can at least hold their own. If they hold Augustin and Adams to slightly under their usual 36 per game, Stanford wins. I think the Lopez twins have another big game (somewhere in the 40 point vicinity) and the Cardinal eeks out another close win.
Pick: Stanford 80, Texas 79


Imagine 14-feet of Lopez coming at you...not pleasant.

2008 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 1

While the first two days were not kind to me, the second round was. I finished the first weekend with a 36-12 record. 7 of my final 8 are still alive, as is my entire Final Four. Overall, in pretty good shape.

EAST REGION

Charlotte Bobcats Arena
Charlotte, NC
***The Predictor Game of the Day***
#4 Washington State Cougars (26-8) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (34-2)
WSU beat #13 Winthrop, #5 Notre Dame
UNC beat #16 Mt. St. Mary’s, #8 Arkansas
Along with the Stanford-Texas game, this is by far the most intriguing game of the regional semifinals. North Carolina has been the most dominant offensive team of the tournament to date. They put 113 on overwhelmed Mount St. Mary’s and 108 on Arkansas. Now I know that Arkansas isn’t in Carolina’s weight class, but there is no way a tournament team from the SEC should surrender 108 points and lose by 31 (and it could have been much worse).

Washington State has been the most dominant defensive team in the tournament. They allowed only 40 against high-scoring Winthrop and 41 against even higher-scoring Notre Dame. So they’ve only given up 81 points in two games (technically, UCLA has only given up 78 points in two games, but one of those was against Mississippi Valley State…it’s hard to compare). In contrast, there have been 16 teams to score 81 or more points in a single game in this tournament, including two games where both teams did (Drake-WKU and Stanford-Marquette). So to only surrender 81 points to a good mid-major and the highest scoring team from the Big East is very impressive.

I will go out on a limb and say that North Carolina probably won’t score close to 100 points in this game and Washington State probably won’t hold UNC in the 40’s. Most likely somewhere in between. Wazzu is a guard dominated team, which doesn’t bode well against North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough. The Cougs have a pair of 6-10 players who see playing time, but neither one of them are a real threat to score or to stop a player of Hansbrough’s talent. Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill are decent players against the Washington’s and the California’s of the Pac-10. But this is a real big man they’re facing here.

Against Pac-10 teams with good post players, the Cougars were 0-5. They lost twice to Kevin Love and UCLA and three times against the Lopez Twins of Stanford. Love had 27 and 16 in his two games against WSU. Brook Lopez had 18, 25 and 30 in his three games against the Cougars, including the game-winning shot in overtime in the meeting up at the Palouse. Even in their 61-41 win over Notre Dame, the Cougars still surrendered 10 points and 22 rebounds to Luke Harangody. Against good big men, the Cougars defense doesn’t have an answer. They have no problem beating good guard teams, like Arizona, Oregon and USC (against whom they went a combined 6-1), but they couldn’t stop Love, Lopez or Harangody.

The one thing Washington State has going for them is the fact that UNC hasn’t been in many close games lately. The Tar Heels ACC semifinal win against Virginia Tech was their only close game in the past month. If Washington State is somehow effective against Hansbrough and keeps it close, they have a chance. Kyle Weaver and Derrick Lowe are one of the few guard tandems that can shut down Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson. There’s just no answer inside.
Pick: North Carolina 78, Washington State 65


Aron Baynes couldn't stop Brook Lopez, and he won't be able to stop Tyler Hansbrough.

#3 Louisville Cardinals (26-8) vs.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (31-4)
L’ville beat #14 Boise St., #6 Oklahoma
Tenn beat #15 American, #2 Butler
I had both of these teams reaching this point. In fact, I had all four teams in the East reaching this point (please don’t look at my predicted Midwest Region…please). The way both of them reached this point is a bit surprising. One has struggled while the other has breezed through two rounds. Before the tournament, if you were to tell me that both teams would reach this point, with one doing it easily and one doing it the hard way, I would have guessed that Louisville had problems and Tennessee had it easy. I would have been wrong.

All season, Louisville has been a tough team to figure out. I thought all season that they were the best of a mediocre Big East (and with Georgetown losing, my opinion is looks a lot stronger). When the Cardinals were playing well, they were having no problems putting way conference competition. They won nine straight Big East games at one point, including victories over Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pittsburgh during that span. But this was still the same team that got blown at home by Dayton, put up no fight in a loss to Purdue, lost ugly at Seton Hall and mailed in their performance in the Big East tournament. So, while I picked Louisville to make it to this point, and advance from this game, I did so with some trepidation. I knew this was a streaky team that could lay an egg at any time. But the Cardinals beat Boise State, and beat down Oklahoma and have had no problems so far.

Tennessee on the other hand, had none of that streakiness in them. They had four losses all season, all to NCAA tournament teams. They lost at Texas, at Kentucky by 6, at Vanderbilt by 3 and in the Tornado Tournament to Arkansas by 1. They didn’t lose consecutive games all season. They didn’t even have back-to-back bad performances all season. So, when the Vols struggled against American, I thought they would have a fairly easy time with Butler. But Butler did what Butler does best: annoy the heck out of power conference teams by slowing down the pace of the game and setting basketball back 30 years. The Bulldogs gave Tennessee a scare and nearly knocked them out of the tournament.

I picked Louisville to win this game at the beginning of the tournament, and I see no reason to change it. The Cardinals appear to be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and they appear to be on one of those streaks of good play. As I discussed last week, Rick Pitino’s defense is finally rounding into form. Even when they don’t score 70-80 points (they’re one of only two Big East teams that can do that routinely), their defense is good enough to win them games. That hybrid zone frustrated the Sooners, and it should do the same today. Tennessee has the gaudy record, but I think experts are realizing what I’ve been saying all along. The Volunteers marched through an extremely weak conference, where even the better teams (like Vandy and Arkansas) didn’t play much “D”. So while the Vols were putting up 80 a night, their points per game stat should have been accompanied by an asterisk. Louisville clamps down again, Chris Lofton is the only one who can shoot over the Cards’ zone, and Pitino’s bunch pulls away in the early second half.
Pick: Louisville 76, Tennessee 65

WEST REGION

U.S. Airways Center
Phoenix, AZ
#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (29-6) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (33-3)
WKU beat #5 Drake, #13 San Diego
UCLA beat #16 MVST, #9 Texas A&M
Not going to spend a whole lot of time on this game. The Bruins have clear mismatches at 4 of the 5 positions. Only Courtney Lee against Russell Westbrook appears to favor WKU. I continue not to be impressed with Lee’s efforts. He disappeared in the 2nd half and overtime against Drake. He played well against San Diego, but that’s not surprising since every player that guarded him was at least 2-3 inches shorter. For the so-called Sun Belt Player of the Year, I expected more. However, Westbrook almost single-handedly cost UCLA the game with his poor performance against Texas A&M.

Lee could score 30, and I don’t think it will matter. Also, he won’t score 30. UCLA’s defense is too good. There is no one on Western Kentucky that can slow down Love. I don’t see any player that can deal with the inside-outside threat of Josh Shipp. As impressive as Tyrone Brazelton has been in both tournament games, he won’t be able to matchup one-on-one with Darren Collison.


Darren Collison and Josh Shipp will both have big games against the Hilltoppers.

UCLA did struggle against Texas A&M. But you know what, A&M is pretty damn good. They were just a bit inconsistent because of some sketchy point guard play. In terms of talent on paper, the Aggies were probably in the 5 to 6 seed range. The Bruins faced a heck of 9-seed, and it wasn’t surprising to see them pushed to the brink. If the Toppers can do the same, it would be one of the biggest shocks in the NCAA tournament in recent memory.
Pick: UCLA 74, Western Kentucky 57

#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (26-10) vs.
#3 Xavier Musketeers (29-6)
WVU beat #10 Arizona, #2 Duke
Xavier beat #14 Georgia, #6 Purdue
Confession: I went down to the MCI-AT&T-Verizon Center this past Saturday to check out the 2nd round games. I went dressed in a navy blue shirt. Now I could lie and said I put on that color for the Muskies in the 2nd game, but it was clearly meant for West Virginia in the afternoon contest. To be fair, it was an UnderArmor shirt with no WVU markings on it. But I definitely fit in with the Mountaineer fans. I certainly rooted along with Mountaineer fans during the game.

Considering the opponent, I didn’t feel like I was betraying my alma mater. This isn’t football. I can only remember one recent basketball game between the ‘Queers and Terps (BB&T Tournament from 2004). I have no regrets. While I’ve seen the Dookies lose in person plenty of times while matriculating at Maryland, I’ve never seen their season end in person. So that was fun!

While I appreciate the win over Dook, I will now revert back to my usual ways of rooting against WVU. 1st of all, I don’t like them. 2nd of all, Bob Huggins is a douche bag. 3rd of all, I had Xavier in my Elite 8 and I would like to see them get there. There are plenty of reasons to pull for the Muskies.

West Virginia, in a typical game, is dependant on two players: Joe Alexander and Alex Ruoff. Alexander is problem for any team. He’s got size, he’ll go inside and bang around, but he’s also comfortable on the perimeter. Ruoff, on the other hand, is stoppable. He’ll be out near the three-point line. Put a shutdown defender on him and you’ll be fine. Allow Alexander to get his 20 and 10. His effort should be enough to keep the game close, but not enough to win it on his own.

As for Xavier, they have six proven scorers. None of those six are go-to-guys, which will be Xavier’s undoing before the tournament ends. But in this game it will be the reason they win. The Fightin’ Hicks don’t have enough defensively to stop Josh Duncan, Drew Lavender, Derrick Brown, C.J. Anderson, B.J. Raymond and Stanley Burrell. At least two of those players will get hot and carry the Muskies into the next round.
Pick: Xavier 83, West Virginia 80

2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 2

6-2 yesterday to get to 29-11 on the tournament thus far. And of course, it wouldn't be a first weekend of the NCAA touranment if we didn't bid farwell to the Duke Blue Devils and Ratface. It's called a power forward. Look into it. I think the best thing about Dook losing is they're going to basically return the exact same team next season. There is no dominant big man heading to the slum of Durham this summer. I don't think Ratface will be able to pull of 28 wins next year. It's also time to bid Jamie "The Joker" Dixon goodbye. Now you know why you don't need the letter "O" to spell Pittsburgh Panthers. Why should the name have an "O" if the team doesn't?

EAST REGION

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#9 Arkansas Razorbacks (23-11) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (33-2)
The more I look at this Arkansas team, the more I’m confused on how they were able to win 23 games. They have a bunch of scrappers, but they don’t do anything particularly well. Their 3-point shooting is below 35%. Their free throw shooting is well below the 70% water mark. They only score 74 points a game, and they surrender almost as much. They have a negative assist-turnover ratio. They’re strictly average in terms of rebounding. How did they win 23 games against real competition?

The win against Indiana was less than impressive. Indiana mailed – or texted – in their season a month ago, and they were a first round exit waiting to happen. Arkansas just put them out of their misery. The Hoosiers only contended for about 10 to 15 minutes in that game and never appeared that interested. Hope the new coach has fun handling a .500 team next season without D.J. White and Eric Gordon.

Anyway, as for this game, I like Carolina, and I like ‘em big. They’re going to create problems at nearly every position for the smaller and slower Hogs. Arkansas hasn’t faced a team in the SEC even remotely similar to UNC. While I like the senior leadership of the Razorbacks, Steven Hill and Darian Townes are no answer for Tyler Hansbrough. Gary Ervin is no answer for Ty Lawson. There is no one on the Arkansas roster that can matchup with the lightning quick Wayne Ellington. This game should not be close.
Pick: North Carolina 92, Arkansas 77

BJCC Arena
Birmingham, AL
#6 Oklahoma Sooners (23-11) vs.
#3 Louisville Cardinals (25-8)
It will be a good game inside as a lot of big bodies will bang down low in a contest featuring two teams that had easy times with overmatched opponents in the first round. Louisville will throw Scott Padgett (who’s finally healthy) and Terrance Williams at the three-headed monster of Longar Longar, Blake Griffin and the newly discovered David Godbold. Apparently, Godbold was a late addition to the lineup in the first round game against St. Joe’s, and completely confused the Hawks who were too busy trying to stop Longar and Griffin.

So both teams are solid inside, but Louisville’s backcourt is much better than Oklahoma’s. Earl Clark, Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa are going to put up more points than whatever combination the Sooners throw on the court. And while a lot of experts love to point to Oklahoma’s defense, which surrenders only 64 points a game, Louisville’s defense only allows 61. Rick Pitino has thrown a hybrid 2-3 zone into the mix, and it might be the best defensive scheme remaining in the entire tournament. The Cardinals can go from man-to-man to this bizarre zone from possession to possession and can really confuse any offense. It will be a slugfest, but superior guard play and defense will be the difference. Advantage Louisville.
Pick: Louisville 67, Oklahoma 59


Since when did Rick Pitino become a defensive genius?

#7 Butler Bulldogs (30-3) vs.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (30-4)
For the first time in NCAA history, two teams with 30 wins will meet in the second round of the tournament. You think Bruce Pearl is happy to see Butler as his opponent? Unlikely. And on the other side, Brad Stevens is probably upset that the Bulldogs are a 7-seed after cruising through the Horizon and their mildly-challenging out of conference schedule. So complaining and unhappiness all around.

Butler is the same team that found a way to beat Maryland last year. They win ugly. They only score 68 points a game, but you’ll win a bunch if you hold opponents to only 57 a game on the other end. This is a team that would fit right in with their Big 10 neighbors. That means Butler is never going to be out of a game because their defense will always keep them in it. It also means that Butler will never be able to put a good team away because their offense simply isn’t good enough.

The Volunteers are the complete opposite. They run and gun. They shoot first and worry about the consequences later. They are loose with the ball and they are below average from the free throw line. There is no commitment to defense. When they have bad shooting nights, as they did against American, they are very vulnerable.

I worry about the Volunteers in this one because opponents are often able to exert their pace on the game against the Vols. Tennessee was forced into a slow down game against a much weaker American team. Even though American didn’t win, they gave themselves a chance for about 35 minutes. Comparatively, Georgetown and Texas were able to run away and hide from their 15-seed opponents (Dook, on the other hand, proved they shouldn’t have been a 2 seed at all). Butler will have their way pace wise, but I’m not sure they win. Tennessee had a poor shooting game against American, and I can’t see them having two bad games in a row. Why? Because they didn’t have back-to-back bad games the entire season.
Pick: Tennessee 65, Butler 55

MIDWEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
#13 Siena Saints (23-10) vs.
#12 Villanova Wildcats (21-12)
So who said that a small MAAC team had no chance beating the Vanderbilt Commodores? I guess I said that. Eesh. Well, Siena dominated from opening tap to closing whistle. Vanderbilt never really made a single run. Granted, the Saints shot the lights out, and playing their second game in less than three days is unlikely to help them keep that shooting percentage up. But they certainly didn’t look like a 13-seed in that game. Still, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once and awhile, and I’m looking for the Saints to come back down to Earth quite a bit. The odds of them beating two BCS teams in three days is slim.
Pick: Villanova 78, Siena 64

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#10 Davidson Wildcats (27-6) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (28-5)
This just in: Stephen Curry is pretty good. I went over this in the Gonzaga-Davidson game preview, but I also said that there was no way Curry could single-handedly carry his team to a win in the NCAA tournament against good competition. Turns out I was wrong about that too. Curry’s 40 point performance was even more impressive than Gerry McNamara’s 43-points against BYU in Denver four years ago (a game I was courtside for). Davidson needed every single one of those points, and every time they needed a big shot, they went to Curry. And he hit every big shot he took.

Georgetown put away UMBC pretty easily in the second half after struggling for awhile. But it was amazing to see how well the much smaller Retrievers were rebounding against Georgetown. Plus, Roy Hibbert seemed to be lost on the defensive end guarding much smaller and faster players. Once again, the Hoyas are going against a much smaller, but quicker team. Against smaller teams, and this includes games against smaller Big East teams, the Hoyas seem to forget that they have height advantages and settle for outside shots. That was the case against UMBC until Little Racist the Third woke them up. That is bound to happen when your 7-1 center playes like a 6-5 guard who can’t shoot and can’t move. Georgetown should be able to score inside, but I like Curry to put up another great game. He got better as the game went along, so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Curry scores 32, and the Wildcats get their second stunner in three days.
Pick: Davidson 74, Georgetown 69

SOUTH REGION

Alltel Arena
Little Rock, AR
#8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (23-10) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (34-1)
Now we are on Memphis upset alert. If they were able to face Oregon, the Tigers would have dominated them both outside and inside. They get the Bulldogs instead, and they get the more physical of the two teams. To figure out how to beat Memphis, you have to go back to their one loss against Tennessee. They were beat up down low by J.P. Prince and Wayne Chism, and were forced into taking jump shots all game. They never got Robert Dozier or Joey Dorsey into any kind of rhythm. If it wasn’t for Derrick Rose’s shooting that night, the game wouldn’t have been close.

MSU has the bodies down low to do this. Charles Rhodes realized he had a mismatch against Oregon, and exploited it for 34 points in the Bulldogs opening round win. I like teams with big men who aren’t afraid to use them (like Georgetown is). And I really like Mississippi State to give the Tigers a ball game. The Memphis loss is coming soon, I just don’t think it’s coming here. Chris Douglass- Roberts is the x-factor, and the Bulldogs don’t have a player like him on their roster.
Pick: Memphis 81, Mississippi State 75

#7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (23-10) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (29-6)
Of all the 2-seeds for the Hurricanes to face, this is probably the one that is the worst matchup for them. I would have like their chances against Duke, Georgetown or Tennessee. Against Texas, they don’t really have a position advantage anywhere on the court. The Longhorns have the superior backcourt by far. Texas also has enough big men inside, so Miami’s several waves of 6-8 or 6-9 players shouldn’t really faze the Horns at all. I would love to see the Canes spring the upset because it would help me in all of my pools and it would restore a little bit of ACC pride that Clemson and the Dookies left behind after the first weekend. Not going to happen though.
Pick: Texas 85, Miami 67

WEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
***THE PREDICTOR GAME of the DAY***
#13 San Diego Toreros (22-13) vs.
#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (28-6)
Poor Tim Brando. Sure the first day was fun for Timmy, with four upsets at the Tampa site. Unfortunately, that leaves Brando with two 12-13 games to call today. Doesn’t exactly make for the best basketball. Oh, the bracket unkind!

Unlike the other 12-13 game, which features a power conference team against a small conference team, these two teams are both on the mid-major level and should provide us with a close game. I watched almost the entire San Diego upset of Connecticut and the second half and overtime of WKU and Drake. Along with the Marquette-Stanford game yesterday, those were the two best games of the tournament to date. Well, Dook losing was up there too. By the way, the last two “Predictor Game of the Day’s” have been overtime games decided by one point. So do yourself a favor and tune into this one.

I was disappointed when I watched the Hilltoppers. I was excited to finally get a chance to watch Courtney Lee, who’s been tearing up the Sun Belt this season. Lee was virtually non-existent in the second half and overtime of their win over Drake. Instead, I was treated to a terrific performance by Tyrone Brazelton, who made every big shot in regulation, and assisted on Ty Rogers’ winning basket at the buzzer in overtime. Brazelton had 33 points and five dimes and carried WKU by himself. Drake knew exactly what he was going to do, and they couldn’t stop him from doing it. Very impressive performance on a big stage.


After Brandon Johnson and Tyrone Brazelton had great games for USD and WKU, two unexpected players hit game-winning shots.

On the flip side, San Diego used more of a team effort to squeak by UConn. Brandon Johnson had a strong outing, similar to his game against Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinals. And he did it on one good leg. Gyno Pomare, who I kinda made fun of Friday for being such a stiff during the WCC tournament, went off for 22 points and made Haseem Thabeet seem ordinary. The supporting cast of Trumaine Johnson and De’Jon Jackson chipped in crucial points, including Jackson’s last second shot for the win.

I continue to love what I see from the Toreros. Three incredibly fast guards who can all defend. Pomare proved that he’s a big man to be reckoned with. This team has done nothing but win since late February. Brandon Johnson’s health will obviously play a role in this one, but he’s going to start, so I have to assume he’s close to 100%. WKU really got lucky on Rogers’ shot. Drake outplayed them down the stretch, but just missed a couple of key shots in overtime. However, San Diego outplayed UConn in the second half and overtime, and deserved to win that game. Bill Grier, a former Gonzaga assistant, has turned San Diego into a Gonzaga-clone. They play the same style of basketball on both ends of the floor. Now they have something else in common: an win against a much higher seed in the NCAA tournament. How about another upset by the Toreros.
Pick: San Diego 80, Western Kentucky 73

2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 2, Day 1

Through the first round I’m 23-9. Not that good. In fact, that's pretty lousy. I knew, I just knew, I should have taken San Diego. When I first filled the bracket out, I had that upset. I probably changed that sometime on Wednesday. I even knew the game would go into overtime (as you can see by the prediction). I’m pissed, that would have been a great upset to have. On to round 2.

EAST REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-7) vs.
#4 Washington State Cougars (25-8)
Neither team was really challenged in their first round games. Both were popular upset picks and there were many brackets that had both losing. Notre Dame had a 17-0 run in the first half to put away George Mason and helped the nation avoid another undeserving run for an unworthy program. Washington State found themselves tied at the half with Winthrop, but the Eagles didn’t come out for the second. I turned my attention away from that game for five minutes, and the Cougars somehow jumped out to a 20-point lead.

This was one of the few second round matchups that I had correctly. I’m going to stick with my original pick. I like Wazzau’s commitment to defense. Other than Pitt, Notre Dame has not had a lot of experience facing suffocating defenses in the Big East. On the other hand, WSU has had to face offenses like UCLA’s, USC’s, Arizona’s and Oregon’s all season long. This should be nothing new to them. Washington State will do what they do best – make the game ugly – and scratch out a win with some timely outside shooting from Kyle Weaver.
Pick: Washington State 69, Notre Dame 64

MIDWEST REGION

Qwest Center
Omaha, NE
#8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (26-8) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-3)
Like the two teams above, neither Kansas or UNLV had problems dispatching their first round opponents. For Kansas, it was expected. They ran through, past and above overmatched Portland State for the easy win. They should be well rested for this game. UNLV held Kent State’s offense to 10 first half points. From the 10-20 minutes of the game that I watched, it looked as if the Rebels could do no wrong.

This will be a very interesting game for the Jayhawks. On paper, they should win going away. But, UNLV is exactly the type of team that’s given Kansas trouble in past tournaments. Undersized, but scrappy and senior-heavy teams seem to have the Jayhawks number. The Rebels have all the tools to beat Kansas. They have two quality three-point shooters in Wink Adams and Curtis Terry. They don’t turn the ball over, as they have one of the best assist-turnover ratio’s in the country. They play sold…not necessarily terrific, but solid defense. And they start all juniors and seniors. Plus, they were in this position last year and beat Wisconsin. So they have tournament experience. This will be a better game than people expect. I think the Kansas height advantage is going to burn UNLV in the end. Unlike the last few years, Kansas has some physicality. They don’t back down if they get hit in the mouth, and they don’t panic when they fall behind. Chalmers, Rush and Jackson just won’t let this team lose. I’m regretting not picking them to win the National Championship. Kansas may overlook UNLV in this one. That, and UNLV’s shooting will keep the Rebels in the game for awhile. Kansas pulls away late for the W.
Pick: Kansas 86, UNLV 78

#11 Kansas State Wildcats (21-11) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (30-4)
I thought for sure that when O.J. Mayo gave USC a one-point lead midway through the second half, that Kansas State was going to wilt and go away. But Michael Beasley, and more importantly, Bill Walker and Rob Anderson, didn’t let the Wildcats lose. Very impressive win by Kansas State in one of the more entertaining games of the tournament thus far. I said that the winner of that USC-KSU game would make the Elite 8, and I’m not going to back down from that prediction. Unfortunately, in my locked bracket, I took the wrong team.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, was predictably less than impressive in their win over Cal State-Fullerton. That game was in doubt until there was about five minutes left to go. Wisconsin may be great defensively, but as I say every season, they simply don’t have enough offense. I can guarantee you that Beasley is just salivating for his matchup with Dook-esque White Stiff Brian Butch. If Walker and Anderson compliment Beasley like they did against Southern Cal, Wisconsin doesn’t stand a chance. This will be a blowout. Even if those two struggle, I still like Beasley to go off for 30-plus and will Kansas State over a team that can’t score. Heck, there’s even an outside shot that he outscores the Badgers by himself.
Pick: Kansas State 71, Wisconsin 57

SOUTH REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#5 Michigan State Spartans (26-8) vs.
#4 Pittsburgh Panthers (27-9)
I’m going to spend as much time on this game as I’m going to spend watching it. In other words, not much time. This is a game that will set back basketball 30 years. First one to 60 wins.
Pick: Pittsburgh 64, Michigan State 58

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
***THE PREDICTOR GAME of the DAY***
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (25-9) vs.
#3 Stanford Cardinal (28-7)
Marquette played a pretty ho-hum game against Kentucky. They never really impressed, but they did enough to get by without really being threatened. The game basically went down as I figured it would. Stanford toyed around with Cornell for 10 minutes, but then put the beat down on the Big Red in the next 30. Neither of the Lopez twins expended much energy and they should both be ready to go this afternoon.

This game is interesting for the contrasting styles. The Eagles are a heavy perimeter team similar to the Dookies (the exception being that Marquette can play tough when it needs to and the Dookies play soft down key stretches). The Cardinal are as reliant on their inside game as any other team in this tournament. I don’t see the Stanford guards hanging with the much quicker Dominic James and company. And I don’t see Ousmane Barro and the smaller Marquette forwards stopping the Twin Lopez Towers. Brook and Robin have been far more consistent than James, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews, so I’ll take the Cardinal in a squeaker.
Pick: Stanford 68, Marquette 66

WEST REGION

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#9 Texas A&M Aggies (25-10) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (32-3)
The best way to describe the Aggies this year is to call them a more talented Maryland. Texas A&M has the ability to beat any team on any given night, but they also have the ability to lose any game they play. Their first round game was an example of that. They jumped out to an 11-0 start against the Stormin’ Mormons, kept BYU at bay for the first 20 minutes, and cruised into halftime. Then the Aggies played terribly for the next 15 minutes, allowing BYU to catch up and even take the lead, before finally overtaking the Cougars in the final five. That’s just like Maryland except A&M actually managed to pull out a victory.

That is what happens when you don’t have consistent guard play. Donald Sloan and Dominique Kirk are both shooting guards. Both have been thrust to the point position this season. Neither one appears that comfortable. When A&M goes bad, these two are turning the ball over, taking bad shots and not involving powerful big men DeAndre Jordan and Joseph Jones. Sounds exactly like Maryland to me.

Since I picked UCLA to win it all, this game has me nervous. Very nervous. A&M is just the type of team that can give the Bruins trouble. Jones and Jordan can matchup and play better than Kevin Love and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute. Sloan is a good on and off ball defender, exactly what an opponent needs to stop Darren Collison. Josh Carter and Josh Shipp are nearly mirror images of one another. The matchup between Kirk and Russell Westbrook is basically a tossup. A&M is one of the few teams that can matchup with UCLA at every position. Collison has played very well at point this year for UCLA, and even though Sloan should be able to limit him, Collison should create all kinds of problems for Sloan when the Aggies have the ball. This game will come down to turnovers and backcourt mistakes, and that’s not good for A&M.
Pick: UCLA 75, Texas A&M 70

Verizon Center
Washington, DC
#6 Purdue Boilermakers (25-8) vs.
#3 Xavier Musketeers (28-6)
You want to know how crazy the first day of the tournament was? The highest scoring team was Purdue. Yes, Purdue. 90 points in their win against Baylor. Purdue, from the Big 10, scored more points than any other team on the first day of the NCAA tournament. Some of that was Baylor’s defense, but if you figure out the entire reason why that happened, please let me know.

The law of averages has to work here. There’s no way the Baby Boilers are putting up 90 points again. There’s no way they come close to 90. Got to play the percentages and play the assumption that Xavier’s defense isn’t as bad as Baylor’s. Hopefully.
Pick: Xavier 73, Purdue 62

#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (25-10) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (28-5)
So, who had Belmont +2? Not me. But I was glad to see it. Two bad calls in the final two minutes of the game, and two bad Belmont possessions in the final minute of the game cost the Bruins a chance at a monumental upset. In their loss, the Bruins proved my point. If Dook isn’t shooting well from the outside, they can lose to anyone. That could mean North Carolina or Wake Forest or even as we saw Thursday, Belmont.

The Bruins didn’t even have a big man of note, and they were still the far better team out there. Belmont was better than Dook for about 30 of the 40 minutes, and was one or two plays away from comfortably winning the game. Heck, if Gerald Henderson is too busy swinging cheap elbows on his way to the basket, he could have missed the layup and Dook would have lost anyway. There are too many good teams in the NCAA tournament. There are too many teams with good big men. There are too many teams that play decent perimeter defense. There is no way Dook gets by them all. None.

Let’s go back to what I said on Thursday. I said it was stupid for the Dookies to ask to get away from Raleigh because of all the Tar Heel fans. The fans in D-C are mostly Maryland fans, who dislike Dook as much as our Carolina brethren. To prove that point, The Predictor will be sitting only a few rows from Ratface and the Nerds today. I hope I don’t get anything that’s contagious.
Pick: West Virginia 82, Duke 77

2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

Well, I was 12-4 yesterday. 12-4 isn’t all that bad, except I already lost USC from my Elite 8 and Arizona from my Sweet 16. It would have all been worth it if the Dookies had fallen last night, but they were saved by a couple of late calls that were very questionable (surprise, surprise) and a couple of bad possessions by Belmont. Even though Dook won, Belmont was clearly the better team and the Devils were very, very lucky to avoid an embarrassing loss. Here’s hoping Day 2 goes better for me.

EAST REGION

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (19-14, 11-7 NEC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (32-2, 14-2 ACC)
I’m all for the play-in game, but do we really have to count that as a NCAA tournament win. It’s not as if the winner played NCAA tournament competition. If The Mount can win hear, maybe we’ll talk.
Pick: North Carolina 94, Mount St. Mary’s 66

#9 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11, 9-7 SEC) vs.
#8 Indiana Hoosiers (25-7, 14-4 Big 10)
Dan Dakich may be a nice guy (I have no clue, I’ve never even heard the guy speak), but his team is the NCAA’s version of “Dead Man Walking.” They are done. They’ve been done for the past month. There is no Steve Fisher and the Michigan Miracle to see here. I said at the beginning of March that the Indiana Hoosiers had won their last game this season. What’s happened since then? They’ve lost to Michigan State (not all that bad), Penn State (really???) and Minnesota in the Big 10 tournament (are you serious???). That loss to Minnesota came on a miracle shot at the buzzer. If that’s not karma coming back and biting Indiana for hiring Kelvin Sampson in the first place, I don’t know what is. The Hoosiers could be playing Coppin State, and I’d seriously think about taking Coppin State. The fact that they’re an 8-seed and playing a decent Arkansas team makes this pick even easier. DEAD TEAM WALKING HERE!
Pick: Arkansas 76, Indiana 67


Hard to believe that one of these is responsible for the collapse of a team that has Eric Gordon and D.J. White.

BJCC Arena
Birmingham, AL
#14 Boise State Broncos (25-8, 12-4 WAC) vs.
#3 Louisville Cardinals (24-8, 14-4 Big East)
The Broncos played the most entertaining game of any of the conference tournaments (except for the Tornado Bowl featuring Mississippi State-Alabama). They needed three overtimes, on the road, to beat New Mexico State. The problem for the WAC is that the lesser team won. NMSU would have probably been a 13-seed, and would have been a dangerous matchup to several of the 4-seeds. The Broncos are too slow, and aren’t that tall, to hang with better teams. Reggie Larry is one of the four or five best players in this tournament you’ve never heard of. At 19 points and 9 rebounds a game, Larry does a little bit of everything for the Broncos. It’s his supporting cast that’s the problem. Other than Larry, there’s not much else on Boise State. And they're pretty small in the front court. Louisville is the one Big East team I trust, so I’m going to ride with them for a little bit.
Pick: Louisville 78, Boise State 66

#11 St. Joseph’s Hawks (21-12, 9-7 A-10) vs.
#6 Oklahoma Sooners (22-11, 9-7 Big XII)
In my opinion, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve to be in this tournament. The Atlantic 10 got way too much pub this season. The Hawks got in because of their tournament win over Xavier in the semifinals, but that win should have been negated by their loss to Temple. They’ve had several bad losses in conference. They were only 9-7 in a conference that isn’t one of the Power 6. Their RPI was 44. Their schedule strength was in the 50’s. Their best win outside of the conference was Siena. How is this an at large team? Oklahoma should take care of all that, assuming their entire lineup doesn’t get hurt. But considering that’s already happened once this season, that scenario is not impossible. Blake Griffin (15 and 9 per game) is a beast inside for the Sooners, and if his bum knees hold up, he could be a NBA draft pick in the near future. The Hawks can’t match up with him, or the depth of Oklahoma.
Pick: Oklahoma 68, St. Joseph’s 54

#15 American Eagles (21-11, 10-4 Patriot) vs.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (29-4, 14-2 SEC)
There was a moment there that I was tempted to take American. I’ve seen a lot of them this year because of my job. But that was a fleeting moment. Way too much talent for the Vols on the offensive end. I can’t see Travis Lay and Brian Gilmore hanging with Wayne Chism and Tyler Smith. American’s guards can keep this close for awhile, but Tennessee should pull away easily in the early 2nd half.
Pick: Tennessee 92, American 69

#10 South Alabama Jaguars (26-6, 16-2 Sun Belt) vs.
#7 Butler Bulldogs (29-3, 16-2 Horizon)
At first glance, the fact that South Alabama is playing a short drive from home certainly looks like an advantage. But this is a team that just lost to Middle Tennessee State on their home floor in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tournament. So I’m not sure how big an advantage that is. The Jags are the complete opposite of Butler. They’ll speed it up, shoot quickly and are very loose with the ball. Even though four South Alabama players can basically score at will, Butler has a knack for making faster, stronger and bigger teams play at their level (see Maryland, 2007). They’ll probably be able to pick up at least one win.
Pick: Butler 71, South Alabama 66

MIDWEST REGION

St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa, FL
#13 Siena Saints (22-10, 13-5 MAAC) vs.
#4 Vanderbilt Commodores (26-7, 10-6 SEC)
This is another one of the “trendy” upset picks. I can’t see it. I can analyze it a million ways and I probably won’t see it. Sure, the Commodores were perfect at home and struggled a bit on the road. But all their road/neutral losses came in conference. And all but one came to pretty good teams. Other than that, the Saints don’t hold one obvious advantage over Vandy. Who stops Shan Foster? That would be SEC Player of the Year Shan Foster (20.6 ppg, 5 rpg). Who stops Alex Gordon? Which one of their 6-7 power forwards stops 6-11 A.J. Ogilvy? Yes, they stopped Stanford. But that was without 7-foot pro prospect Brook Lopez, who was suspended at the time. Taking Siena makes as much sense as taking Winthrop, and you all saw how well that worked out yesterday. These MAAC teams (not named Manhatten) always flame out in a big way in the first round. Siena will be no different.
Pick: Vanderbilt 87, Siena 71


Tennessee couldn't stop this team...do really expect Siena to give them trouble?

#12 Villanova Wildcats (20-12, 9-9 Big East) vs.
#5 Clemson Tigers (24-9, 10-6 ACC)
Villanova shouldn’t be in this tournament. If the committee uses team and conference RPI like they say they do, there is no way an 8th team from the Big East (the 5th rated conference in the RPI) gets in over Virginia Tech. Now, as happy as I am not to see that bum Seth Greenberg in the Tournament, I don’t like seeing a watered-down Big East get eight bids. Clemson should take one back for the ACC. No one was more devastated than me to see Vanderbilt and Clemson in the same sub-regional. I liked both of these teams to get to the Sweet 16, and maybe even the Elite 8. Unfortunately, one of them has to lose this weekend. But we’ll get into that on Sunday. As for Clemson in this contest, I think they’ve played some of the nation’s best basketball down the stretch, and they should certainly be hot enough to take out an average Villanova team.
Pick: Clemson 82, Villanova 70

RBC Center
Raleigh, NC
#15 UMBC Retrievers (24-8, 13-3 America East) vs.
#2 Georgetown Hoyas (27-5, 15-3 Big East)
Coming into the tournament, I thought the Hoyas were the worst 2-seed by far. The Dookies went out of their way last night to prove me wrong, but Georgetown, in my mind, is still as lousy as they were when this tournament began. Nothing has changed in the last 24 hours except a near-epic loss by Ratface and his bunch. I think UMBC is better than Belmont, and I don’t think the Hoyas and Little Racist III are any better than the Dookies. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF UMBC WINS THIS GAME. However, with all the Maryland hating that was going on at the America East championship game (I saw and heard it all since I was there in person), I’m not really rooting for the Retrievers to pull off the upset. Seriously, you know all those punks in the stands are Maryland fans most years. But give a fan base a chance to be on ESPN and they turn into morons.
Pick: Georgetown 68, UMBC 61

#10 Davidson Wildcats (26-6, 20-0 Southern)
#7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7, 13-1 WCC)
This is another one of the trendy upset games that I’m shying away from. All I hear about Davidson is how tough a schedule the Wildcats played. The only problem is, Davidson lost to every decent team on their schedule. It’s great that Davidson challenged themselves out of conference, but eventually, you have to actually win one of the tough ones. Yes, they have Stephen Curry, who is an absolutely tremendous player. Yes, that’s the same Stephen Curry that almost single-handedly beat Maryland last season. And yes, Jason Richards has become an excellent complimentary guard to Curry. But Davidson still has no height, which is a problem against better teams. Gonzaga can throw David Pendergraft, Robert Sacre, Austin Dane and the “Mushroom Man” Josh Heytvelt on the court. All those guys are 6-7 or taller. Sacre’s a stiff, but the other three can score and board very well. Jeremy Pargo is a terrific on the ball defender, and should be good enough to stop Richards. Which means it will be Curry trying to carry the team by himself in another tournament game. This is one of Mark Few’s deeper teams, and that depth, along with their height, should be enough to get the Zags past the Curry Show.
Pick: Gonzaga 75, Davidson 72


He's a great player, but Davidson needs more than Stephen Curry if they want to advance in the tournament.

SOUTH REGION

Alltel Arena
Little Rock, AR
#16 Texas-Arlington Mavericks (21-11, 7-9 Southland)
#1 Memphis Tigers (33-1, 16-0 C-USA)
You know, I think I like Memphis in this game. I know that’s going out on a limb, but what the heck, I’ll take a chance.
Pick: Memphis 93, Texas-Arlington 65

#9 Oregon Ducks (18-13, 9-9 Pac-10) vs.
#8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (22-10, 12-4 SEC)
RPI of 58, a .500 conference record and 13 losses overall. Does this sound like a tournament team to you? Well, how about a team seeded ninth in the NCAA tournament? No? Well, you’re not alone in that train of thought. I like Ernie Kent, I really do. But his team simply does not belong in the NCAA tournament this season. They play no defense, turn the ball over way too much and are maddeningly inconsistent (like beating Stanford and Kansas State, only to lose to Nebraska and Oakland University). MSU is a little bit more consistent, but very thin on the bench. Charles Rhodes, Barry Stewart, Jamont Gordon and Ben Hansbrough (yes, related to Tyler) all play 30 or more minutes a game. The Bulldogs should have enough in the tank to beat the Ducks, but they’re really going to struggle against Memphis with less than 48 hours to rest.
Pick: Mississippi State 78, Oregon 72

#15 Austin Peay Governors (24-10, 16-4 OVC) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (28-6, 13-3 Big XII)
There’s a lot of talent on Texas…as usual. But Rick Barnes is still in charge, which means the Longhorns will probably lose a round or two ahead of when they should. No one does less with more than Rick Barnes. How did Kevin Durant work out last season?
Pick: Texas 84, Austin Peay 67

#10 Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-6, 12-2 WCC) vs.
#7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (22-10, 8-8 ACC)
I already picked Gonzaga, so I don’t think I’m required to make have the Gaels moving any further despite the fact that I’ve been hyping them all season. The Gaels simply don’t matchup well with Miami. As I’ve mentioned here, Miami can throw waves of big guys at you, and there’s only one guy who can counter them on Saint Mary’s. Omar Samhan is a solid post player, but he’s always in foul trouble. And I’m going to assume that Miami’s stable of bigs can get Samhan in trouble again. Patrick Mills is a nice player, but Jack McClinton can outscore him easily. Lance Hurdle and Jamie Dews are nice role players that will have big games for the Canes. It might be a dogfight, and it might be ugly, but Miami pulls this one out and the ACC goes 4-0 in the first round.
Pick: Miami 65, Saint Mary’s 58

WEST REGION

St. Pete Time’s Forum
Tampa, FL
***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#13 San Diego Toreros (21-13, 11-3 WCC) vs.
#4 Connecticut Huskies (24-8, 13-5 Big East)
Looking at this game, there’s nothing on paper to suggest that San Diego will be able to keep it close after halftime. But I fell in love with this team during their run in the West Coast Conference tournament. There’s no way you can convince me that Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are better teams. Each night, it was a different player carrying the Toreros. Trumaine Johnson, Brandon Johnson (who was unconscious in the semifinal against the Gaels) and De’Jon Jackson all played big roles in the backcourt. All three are lightning quick guards who handle the ball very well. Apparently, their performance in the WCC tournament was the best they’ve looked all season. They only average 5 to 6 three-pointers a game, which is in the bottom 10th of the NCAA. As good as Jackson looked in the WCC final, he only averaged 7.7 points per game during the season. Trumaine Johnson, who made big plays in each game didn’t even average six points a game. Gyro Pomare, the Toreros second best scorer behind Brandon Johnson, did nothing in the WCC and looked awkward and lethargic inside. But, I have a feeling that this game is going to be very close. This is a hot team, and I like taking teams that make runs in their conference tourney. San Diego is much faster than UConn. All three guards are great defenders (Brandon Johnson was near the top of the NCAA in steals) and key the Toreros offensive break. If they can press and cause turnovers, and force the Huskies to run, they have a chance. UConn, despite having more talent, is very inexperienced. No senior sees significant playing time. This is a game that the quicker guards of USD can dictate. If UConn is able to slow this game down, and establish 7-3 Haseem Thabeet inside, San Diego will have no answer. Thabeet will struggle in regulation, but when the game goes to overtime, he will be the x-factor and carry the Huskies to victory.
Pick: Connecticut 77, San Diego 75 (OT)


Brandon Johnson and young coach Bill Grier have already had a terrific March. They may even be around a little bit longer.

#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (27-6, 16-2 Sun Belt) vs.
#5 Drake Bulldogs (28-4, 15-3 Missouri Valley)
I’ve seen enough of Drake to know that if they’re on from outside, there are very few teams in the nation that can beat them. Every player that steps on the court for Drake can shoot. They’re balanced on both ends of the court and have balanced scoring. Four players average over 10 points a game. The starter that doesn’t is MVC tournament MVP Adam Emmenecker, who is a fun player to watch. He’s all hustle and earns every point, rebound and steal he gets. On the other side, I’m excited to get a chance to see Courtney Lee. I’ve only been able to watch one half of one game for Western Kentucky. I’ve heard a lot about Lee (20.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and I’m looking forward to seeing if the hype matches the production. Other than Lee, there isn’t much on the WKU roster, and the balanced Drake should outshoot and out-defend the Toppers for the win.
Pick: Drake 75, Western Kentucky 64

2008 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 1

Before we move on to the predictions, it’s time once again to check in on “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi. At Noon on Selection Sunday, Lunardi had both Arizona State and Ohio State squarely in the bracket, and both Baylor and Villanova out. In fact, Villanova wasn’t even in his “Last Four Out.” Nova was third in his “Next Four Out.” That means, according to Lunardi, Villanova would have had to jump SEVEN teams to make the dance. Suddenly, around 5:00 p.m., Lunardi did his final update. All of a sudden, there’s Villanova as a 12-seed. I’m not sure what Villanova did from Noon to 5 p.m. on Sunday to jump seven teams, but it must have been something. Or…Lunardi had someone from the committee war-room call him, like he does every year, and slip him the information.

I have no problem with Lunardi receiving inside information. If he wants to get and if the committee wants to give it, who am I to say no. However, his Bracketology is based on guessing. It’s not based on inside info. If you have insider information, you are no longer guessing. You are telling. He is misleading people into believing that he gets 33 of the 34 teams correctly every season, when he clearly doesn’t. Does he get 31 correctly? Yes, but the clowns on talk radio and at the Baltimore Sun can get 31 correctly (hell, even I did it). Does he routinely miss on only one pick a year? Not a chance. Lunardi is giving predicting a bad name. If you have inside information, why don’t write a breaking news article and post it on ESPN.com. That way you’re not representing what you do as guessing. You would instead be telling the public facts which is called reporting. Nice try Joe, I caught you again.

Anyway, I got you covered over the next few days for all sorts of predictions. There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute.However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have Vanderbilt and Clemson advancing to the second round. If both Vandy and Clemson lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses as usual. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between Siena and Villanova that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. Those picks will come daily. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record.

Locked bracket is as follows:

East
1st round winners: UNC, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Washington State, Oklahoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
2nd round winners: UNC, Washington State, Louisville, Tennesee
Sweet 16 winners: UNC, Louisville
East Region Finalist: North Carolina

Midwest
1st round winners: Kansas, UNLV, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown
2nd round winners: Kansas, Clemson, Southern Cal, Gonzaga
Sweet 16 winners: Kansas, Southern Cal
Midwest Region Finalist: Kansas

South
1st round winners: Memphis, Mississippi State, Temple, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Stanford, Miami, Texas
2nd round winners: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Texas
Sweet 16 winners: Memphis, Stanford
South Region Finalist: Stanford

West
1st round winners: UCLA, Texas A&M, Drake, Connecticut, Baylor, Xavier, Arizona, Duke
2nd round winners: UCLA, Connecticut, Xavier, Arizona
Sweet 16 winners: UCLA, Xavier
West Region Finalist: UCLA

FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: UCLA over Stanford, UNC over Kansas
Final: UCLA 77, North Carolina 70

This bracket will be saved right on this post for all to come back and laugh at after the tournament’s over. My predictions for the first round games will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

EAST REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#13 Winthrop Eagles (22-11, 10-4 MAAC) vs.
#4 Washington State Cougars (24-8, 11-7 Pac-10)
The Cougars are a solid team, but with a glaring weakness. Now, they’re not as bad inside as Duke, because they at least have big bodies to throw at you. Those big men just aren’t skilled. When Wazzau gets past the Eagles, who can’t challenge them inside, they’ll probably run into tall Notre Dame followed by the North Carolina Hansbroughs. The Cougars have two of the three things that are necessary at this time of year. The first is commitment to some resemblance of defense. The Cougars take that to the extreme. The second is veteran leadership. WSU starts three seniors and two juniors. The final thing is balance. I’m not just talking about balance on the offensive end. I’m talking about total team balance. The Wazzau defense is so much better than their offense, and their guards are just so much better than their forwards. While their strengths are obvious, their weaknesses are too. I would like to take them farther than the Sweet 16, but I can’t.
Pick Washington State 71, Winthrop 63

#12 George Mason Patriots (23-10, 12-6 CAA) vs.
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-7, 14-4 Big East)
These guys again? The biggest, baddest mid-major is back for more! And this time, their taking names. Ok, I don’t know what that means, but I was all set to pick Mason until yesterday afternoon. As part of my job, I attended their last open practice in Fairfax before their trip to the mountains. First, they all looked dead tired, which in the high altitude is not the best condition to be in. Secondly, the Mason scout team was running Notre Dame’s most basic plays (versions of the high-low screen and release which opens up a shooter at the top of the key or a post man underneath) and the starters were having no luck defending it. Something tells me that when Kyle McAlareny and Luke Harangody start running it against today, the Patriots could have a lot more problems. Plus, the Irish play five different guys who are 6-8 or taller, while Mason only has one player taller than that on their roster. Not this year Jimmy.
Pick: Notre Dame 80, George Mason 67

MIDWEST REGION

Qwest Center
Omaha, NE
#16 Portland State Vikings (23-9, 14-2 Big Sky) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (31-3, 13-3 Big XII)
If you are new to this site, and I have to assume you are, I don’t waste time on 1 vs. 16 games. There is no point. In the current format, no 16 seed will ever beat a 1. We’ll talk about Kansas and the other #1’s on the weekend
Pick: Kansas 95, Portland State 68

#9 Kent State Golden Flashes (28-6, 13-3 MAC) vs.
#8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (26-7, 12-4 Mountain West)
Kent State is a little team, but I don’t think they stand much of a chance in this one. UNLV has struggled this year against teams with big centers. It’s not that UNLV doesn’t go inside. They actually do attack the hoop quite a bit. The Rebels just don’t have anyone who is taller than 6-8 on the team and they don’t do well against athletic big men. Luckily for UNLV, Kent State doesn’t have an athletic big man. These two teams might as well be mirror images of one another, and UNLV has been beating those kind of teams all season long in the Mountain West. If you get a chance, check out UNLV’s Wink Adams. He may the best pure shooter in the tournament not named Shan Foster.
Pick: UNLV 79, Kent State 74


ON A WINK AND A PRAYER: Get to know Wink Adams, who should deliver at least one tournament victory for UNLV

#14 Cal State-Fullerton Titans (24-8, 12-4 Big West) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (29-4, 16-2 Big 10)
Again with the Badgers. The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Badgers won’t have the problems with Fullerton that they did in their first round game last year against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. But they’re still going to have problems in the second round. Wisconsin simply can’t score enough. We’ll get into that on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Titans are anything but. They start three players who are 6-5 and two who are 5-11. Wisconsin should have a field day inside. Should.
Pick: Wisconsin 65, Cal State-Fullerton 49

***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#11 Kansas State Wildcats (20-11, 10-6 Big XII) vs.
#6 Southern California Trojans (21-11, 11-5 Pac-10)
This was the obvious matchup that jumped out at me, and I’m sure at most fans, in the first round when the brackets were first announced. The game will actually take a backseat to the Michael Beasley-O.J. Mayo contest, even though they both play different positions and won’t be going one-on-one. Still, it will be interesting to see the two freshmen go at it before heading to the NBA. Nice to see the NCAA decided to put this game in Omaha, a city that just screams out “big game.”


O.J. Mayo (32), has Taj Gibson to help him out. Michael Beasley? Well, there's a reason he had to average almost 30 points a game.

As for the game itself, it’s very tricky to pick. I really think the winner of this game makes the Elite 8. The problem is, either one of these teams could win it. If you pick the wrong one, your bracket is in early trouble. Beasley can carry a team more than Mayo can, but Mayo is on the better team. Other than Bill Walker, try naming another KSU player. It’s hard because the rest of them don’t have an impact. Even Walker has trouble staying in the game because he commits too many dumb fouls. Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson for USC are consistent contributors, and the supporting casts are going to make the difference in this one. Unless Beasley drops 40. If that’s the case, I can’t be held responsible.
Pick: Southern Cal 83, Kansas State 77

SOUTH REGION

Pepsi Center
Denver, CO
#13 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (24-8, 16-2 Summit) vs.
#4 Pittsburgh Panthers (26-9, 10-8 Big East)
This is a trendy upset pick, and trust me, I want to pick it. ORU just doesn’t matchup well enough with Pitt for me to take them. ORU can score, but they are extremely streaky. They can score 80 points one night, 60 the next. Their best player even comes off the bench (Robert Jarvis who leads the team with 16 points per). The only reason they won 24 is the conference they play in. When Tulsa is your best win, you probably shouldn’t be a 13 seed. On the other side, you know how much I dislike Pitt, known on this page as the Wisconsin of the East. They got a terrific draw, and it would be hard for Jamie Dixon to pull off his usual 2nd round exit. Then again, never underestimate him.
Pick: Pittsburgh 68, Oral Roberts 64

#12 Temple Owls (21-12, 11-5 A-10) vs.
#5 Michigan State Spartans (25-8, 12-6 Big 10)
All you really need to know is this stat: the Spartans are 17-0 at home, and 7-7 when they’re not. I’m assuming that Denver is no where near Michigan State. While MSU has impressive wins, they’ve also had some poor losses. This is typical Big 10 team. They have some decent defense coupled with inconsistent to lousy to awful offense. Temple has three proven scorers, including talented Dionte Christmas. They also have the height, the patience and the discipline to go toe-to-toe with an average Big 10 team. Plus, guess who’s calling the action in Denver? None other than Gus Johnson! What would the first round be without Gus’ head almost exploding during an upset. It just wouldn’t be March. The biggest upset of the first round goes to the Owls.
Pick: Temple 62, Michigan State 55


It's clear to me that Scarlett is thrilled to be back sponsering this page again during tournament time. She's also not excited about Big 10 basketball. But no one else is either.

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#14 Cornell Big Red (22-5, 14-0 Ivy) vs.
#3 Stanford Cardinal (26-7, 13-5 Pac-10)
These schools have a lot in common. Both lack a sense of plurality. Both are extremely tough academically. Both have players 7-feet or taller. That’s where the similarities end. The Cardinal have the talent and balance to make the Final Four. The Big Red…eh, not so much.
Pick: Stanford 74, Cornell 57

#11 Kentucky Wildcats (18-12, 12-4 SEC) vs.
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9, 11-7 Big East)
Unlike their Big East brethren Pitt, or their in-state brethren Wisconsin, Marquette can put some points on the board. If they could just do it consistently, they’d be all set. Unfortunately, they’ve had five months to fix that problem and haven’t done it. Their guard play should be good enough to notch a win here, but they’ll have a lot of problems in the next round. As for Kentucky, anyone who read this page last season knows I’m a huge Billy Gillispie fan. It’s not his fault that there wasn’t much in the cupboard in Lexington this season. However, the Cats did not deserve a NCAA bid. Even more so since losing Patrick Patterson to injury. I like the Eagles, and karma, for this game.
Pick: Marquette 77, Kentucky 71

WEST REGION

Honda Center
Anaheim, CA
#16 Mississippi Valley St. Delta Devils (19-15, 12-5 SWAC) vs.
#1 UCLA Bruins (31-3, 16-2 Pac-10)
Like I said, there’s no reason to waste time on 16 vs. 1 matchups. Cool name though for Mississippi Valley. Maybe they should put in a call to Jerry Rice for this game.
Pick: UCLA 86, Mississippi Valley St. 55

#9 Texas A&M Aggies (24-10, 8-8 Big XII) vs.
#8 Brigham Young Cougars (27-7, 14-2 Mountain West)
Because I’m a Gillispie fan, I still remain a fan of Texas A&M, even though Gillispie is in Kentucky and Acie Law is in the NBA. Mark Turgeon has gone through growing pains in his first season in a power conference. Turgeon had the misfortune of losing Law, and he doesn’t have another true point guard on the roster. This can explain why A&M has been up and down all season, despite having quality players at all the other positions. That’s also why the Aggies won’t be around the tournament too long. Teams without good point guards don’t make Final Fours. They should be good enough to sneak by the Stormin’ Mormons. I already picked UNLV, which means my self-imposed rule of picking at least one Mountain West to advance has already been fulfilled.
Pick: Texas A&M 74, BYU 71

Verizon Center
Washington, DC
#14 Georgia Bulldogs (17-16, 4-12 SEC) vs.
#3 Xavier Musketeers (27-6, 14-2 A-10)
Now we come to the Washington DC games. This is a really intriguing region. I would love to have the day off on Thursday and take a quick skip down to the Phone Booth. Three of the games today could go either way, and that other game involves a team I would love to heckle for 40 minutes. Both games on Saturday should be close too. We start with the red-hot Bulldogs, at team that has already played Cinderella, against a Xavier team that I can’t figure out. Georgia kicked down the door and earned their invite by winning the Tornado Tournament in Atlanta. Winning three games against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Arkansas in a span of 27 hours was very impressive. Fatigue should not be a concern for them. In fact, having four days off may cool off the Dawgs. Xavier, as noted a lot on TV this week, is the only Division 1 team with six players averaging 10 or more points a game. Impressive to be sure. But other than Drew Lavender (who can do more than score), none of the Musketeers really stand out. However, Xavier has three of the things I talked about earlier. They have senior leadership, balance throughout the team and they play enough defense to get by. They’ll probably lose in this region because their defense isn’t spectacular, but it shouldn’t be in this game.
Pick: Xavier 72, Georgia 67

#11 Baylor Bears (21-10, 9-7 Big XII) vs.
#6 Purdue Boilermakers (14-8, 15-3 Big 10)
This is the game I would really like to see. Baylor is so much fun to watch. They get up and down the court. While their defense is extremely suspect, their offense can make up for it. They also press on almost every made basket, which can explain part of the reason their defensive stats are below average. Purdue comes from the Big 10, which automatically earns them a strike in my book. As you might have noticed, I have three of the Big 10 teams losing in the first round and Wisconsin falling in the second. So none of the Big 10 teams should make it out of the first weekend. I think Baylor handles Purdue pretty easily here. The older players on this team remember what happened a few seasons ago with the Dave Bliss-Carl Dotson-Patrick Dennehy mess (ironically enough, if both Baylor and Georgia win, the Bears will face a player named Dave Bliss). This is a team playing with a major chip on their shoulder. Should be good enough to get Baylor past Purdue, and maybe even past Xavier.
Pick: Baylor 81, Purdue 71

#15 Belmont Bruins (25-8, 14-2 Atlantic Sun) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (27-5, 13-3 ACC)
You know why people hate Dook? It’s because of the breaks they get. First of all, this team is a traditional three seed, but they get over-seeded as usual. Then they get a cushy sub-regional, with Xavier as their 3 seed and incomplete teams like Purdue, WVU and Arizona hanging around. Finally, they get to play in DC instead of Raleigh. The Dookies don’t want to play in Raleigh because the building is going to be 75% Carolina fans. So of course, the committee bends over backwards to send them to Washington. Even though that’s what Dook wanted (and asked the NCAA for), I’m not sure why they think DC will be better. Who do you think is going to occupy most of the seats? Maryland fans! It will also be filled with Georgetown fans that don’t have the money to follow their team to Raleigh. Georgetown fans also tend to have a strong dislike for Dook. Here’s hoping that this plan backfires on the Blow Devils and the NCAA on Saturday. I’m sure we’ll see Karl Hess officiating to make sure the Dookies get to Phoenix.
Pick: Duke 86, Belmont 63


Felt this was a good time to show some Eric Maynor. I doubt Belmont's Shane Dansby will get a chance to do this today.

#10 Arizona Wildcats (19-14, 8-10 Pac-10) vs.
#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (24-10, 11-7 Big East)
The reason that Arizona made this tournament is because of their stellar road wins. They’ve won at Washington State, at UNLV and at Southern Cal. And they played UCLA tough in Los Angeles. If this was the early game, and you were making Arizona play at 9:30 a.m. PST, then the Fightin’ Hicks would have a huge advantage. Since they’re not, and West Virginia really hasn’t beaten anyone of significance away from home, then Arizona stacks up pretty well despite the poor finish and poor record. The Cats have also had tons of injury problems, but most of them have been solved. Jerryd Bayless is a player that WVU has no answer for. Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill more than counter West Virginia’s Joe Alexander inside. WVU has height, but other than Alexander, that height is raw. The big guys for West Virginia are basically bodies. They are fouls to give. The ‘Queers have no slashers, no good mid-range shooters and are both poor rebounders and free throw shooters. Too many athletes on Arizona. Too few for the Hicks.
Pick: Arizona 83, West Virginia 74