2008 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

A 4-0 night yesterday moved the record to 40-12. Now, we’re talking. Let’s see if I can go perfect for the regional semifinals.

MIDWEST REGION

Ford Field
Detroit, MI
#12 Villanova Wildcats (22-12) vs.
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (33-3)
Villanova beat #5 Clemson, #13 Siena
Kansas beat #16 Portland St., #8 UNLV
Unlike Davidson and Western Kentucky, Villanova is not a great story. This is a power conference team that was seeded way too low, finished in eighth place in a mediocre conference, shouldn’t have been let into the tournament in the first place, and has had a rather easy and undeserved trip to the Sweet 16. They beat Clemson, a team that had no previous tournament experience and showed as much in the closing minutes of their loss. Then they beat Siena, a team that was ridiculously hot in a first round upset of Vanderbilt, which meant there was no way they’d play like that two games in a row, and the Cats walked all over them. Sorry, not impressed. Please vacate the NCAA tournament i mmediately. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

Scottie Reynolds is a heck of a player. He is fun to watch. The rest of the squad is a typical Big East team, limited in the skill department, but abundant in size and strength. Better teams can beat them. Heck, teams like Davidson can beat them. Kansas is much, much better than Davidson, and Villanova is not as good as Georgetown. Their luck has run out, they’ll finally have to face a complete team.

Haven’t talked much about the individual matchups in regards to Kansas as of yet. That’s because I expected them to breeze to wins in their first two games. That won’t change here. No need to mention guys like Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. That analysis can wait until Sunday…or even next weekend. I like Kansas. I like them big. No spread in the world is big enough.
Pick: Kansas 92, Villanova 74

#10 Davidson Wildcats (28-6) vs.
#3 Wisconsin Badgers (31-4)
Davidson beat #10 Gonzaga, #2 G’town
Wisconsin beat #14 Cal St.-Full, #11 KSU
Boy, this region has two stinkers. The only way this game is remotely entertaining is if Stephen Curry goes off again. And that could easily happen. When Wisconsin played Kansas State, I said that Michael Beasley had a good chance of outscoring the Badgers by himself. The same applies for Curry. He could outscore Wisconsin if he gets hot enough and the Badgers go into one of their patented funks.

It’s worth mentioning that Curry has scored 70 points in two games so far. And those 70 points came against two very good defensive teams. Georgetown is a taller, slightly more athletic, but much dumber version of Wisconsin. So if Curry can score 30 against the Hoyas, he can do it against the Badgers. Michael Flowers is one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the country, but I’m not betting against Curry right now. Again, if he can score 30 on less than two days rest against a good defensive club, he can do it against Wisconsin.

Other than Curry’s 30, the most important thing to come out of Davidson’s win against Georgetown was the emergence of Andrew Lovedale inside. Those in the know were already aware of Curry and his backcourt mate Jason Richards. The concern of mine heading into the tournament was the complete lack of inside game from the Wildcats. That’s why I picked against them in the opening round. But Lovedale has come alive. Here’s a guy who only averaged six points and five boards during the season. Lovedale had 12 and 13 against Gonzaga and 11 and 7 against Georgetown. If he keeps up his play, and Richards and Curry keep their games up, that gives Davidson three legitimate threats to score. Anything Thomas Sander and Boris Meno give the ‘Cats is a bonus. Davidson can now be a balanced offense.

Wisconsin is the same team they’ve been for the last few seasons. Bo Ryan, who does deserve props for maximizing the talent he has in Madison, is coaching the most mind-numbingly dull team in the country. Like Dick and Tony Bennett at Washington State, Ryan will eventually learn that his team must score more than 60 points with some sort of consistency to every be considered a real threat to win a national title (although the Bennett’s resorted back to their old ways in their 47-point effort against defense-deficient Carolina).


This is what Billy Donovan will look like in 25 years.

When I see Wisconsin in the bracket, I immediately look for the first team that I think is capable of putting up around 70 points on them, and that’s where I usually have the Badgers leaving. Last year I thought it would be UNLV, and I was right. This year, I thought the USC/KSU winner would do it. Wisconsin proved me wrong. But they still have to go through a Davidson team that can score in bunches, dangerous Kansas and even more dangerous UNC just to get to the championship game. Do you really think they’ll be able to keep all three of those teams below 60 points? A team that is completely reliant on defense to win games can not win six games in the NCAA tournament. A team that can’t be counted on to put up 60 a game cannot and will not win a national championship. IT CAN NOT HAPPEN.

I picked Davidson to beat Georgetown, and I think Georgetown was slightly better than Wisconsin. As great as it was to see West Virginia send home Ratface, it was even better to see the Wildcats storm back from a big deficit and knock out Little Racist III. I will reward Davidson by picking them again. They made me look great on Sunday because I said they’d win 74-70 and Curry would score 32 (as I already established, he had 30 and the final score was 74-69). So hopefully they make it two games in a row.
Pick: Davidson 68, Wisconsin 61


Sorry you had to see Bo Ryan. Here's something to make it up to you.

SOUTH REGION

Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX
#5 Michigan State Spartans (27-8) vs.
#1 Memphis Tigers (35-1)
MSU beat #12 Temple, #4 Pittsburgh
Memphis beat #16 TX-Arlington, #8 Miss St.
Since the Spartans are still playing, let me finish my rant on great defense-bad offense teams. Look back at the last 10 to 15 years of national champions. Which of those teams was ever known for its defense? The answer would be none of them. Sure, most of the teams that have recently won the title played solid defense. But all of them could score. The last team to win it all with a famous defense was Arkansas’ “40 Minutes of Hell” in 1994, but that defense was set up to provide non-stop pressure to force turnovers and get instant offense. The Razorbacks were still a high-scoring team that season. Even Michigan State, who won the title in 2000, had guys like obnoxious Mateen Cleaves who could take over a game offensively.

These Big 10 and Big East teams that think they can get away with minimal talent because they hustle on the defensive end usually get tripped up by teams that score in the high-70’s or even low-80’s. Since the Big 10 and Big East have so few teams that can do this, this strategy works in the regular season. However, MSU no longer gets to face the Temples and Pittsburghs of the world. This is Memphis, a team that has five scorers on the court at all-times. The Tigers will be done in by their free-throw shooting, but it will take a close game for that to happen. Memphis won’t find that close game here. We’ll talk more about that on Sunday.
Pick: Memphis 76, Michigan State 64

***The Predictor Game of the Day***
#3 Stanford Cardinal (28-7) vs.
#2 Texas Longhorns (30-6)
Stanford beat #14 Cornell, #6 Marquette
Texas beat #15 Austin Peay, #7 Miami
Finally, a very interesting game. This may be the best game the entire tournament has to offer. I’m looking forward to this game so much, that the local CBS affiliate decided to show Davidson-Wisconsin instead. Ugh, looks like another night watching MMOD on the ol’ computer.

When it comes to seeding the NCAA tournament, and determining the last couple of teams that get in the field, I usually don’t care all that much. I find seeding irrelevant because if you somehow win six games in a row, you’re usually beating 3 to 5 really good basketball teams. No one gets an easy walk to the final game. And the last teams in the field rarely, if ever, make serious charges to the Final Four.

The problem that I usually have with the committee is the way they handle who plays where. If South Alabama is a 10 seed, they shouldn’t be playing down the road in Birmingham against a team that the committee thinks is better than them. How much sense does that make? Davidson should not be playing games in Charlotte. And Texas should definitely not be playing regional games in Houston. I understand rewarding top seeds like Carolina “home court advantage”, but other than the top seeds, the rest of the teams should be at some slight disadvantage. Let’s say you’re John Calipari. Would you rather be the #1 seed in Detroit, which is much further away from your campus…or the #1 seed in Houston, a city much closer to Memphis, but have to face #2 seed Texas in what is basically a true road game? I think Calipari would welcome a trip to Detroit, making him one of the few people in the entire country that would actually want to go to that city.


Just picture this stadium filled with burnt orange. How is this fair?

I know the sites are determined ahead of time, and that every once and awhile, situations like this can happen. But this happens three to four times every tournament. The easy solution would have been to take the #1 Kansas-#2 Georgetown combination, and move them to the Houston region, while taking Memphis-Texas to the Detroit region. There, problem solved. Neutral court for every team. You can not give teams with lesser seeds chances to play at home. It was possible, had Arizona beaten WVU and Dook, for the Wildcats to play their regionals down the road in Phoenix. The 15-loss Wildcats could have been playing virtual home games for the right to go to the Final Four. That can’t keep happening.

Stanford is the first team to have to deal with the burnt orange. After a great season in the tough Pac-10, the Cardinal deserve a little better than this. The crowd probably won’t be a big deal for the Cardinal, considering they have to play at places like Oregon, Arizona and UCLA every season. They should be well prepared. Teams like Memphis, that don’t see boisterous crowds all that often in CUSA, will be the ones that pay.

Let’s move on to the game. It should be a real good one. Like their game against Marquette, Stanford finds itself battling a team with much better guard play, but not a whole lot in the middle. The Cardinal had their way inside with the Eagles, as the Lopez twins combined for 48 points. Robin Lopez put most of his points up in the first stanza, while his better half struggled (while Robin may be the lesser of the two on the court, he’s apparently dating Michelle Wie off of it…so he’s one up on his brother in that category). Brook came to life in the second, and all the way into overtime, as he tallied the game winning field goal with 1.3 seconds left in the game. Both Lopez’s did whatever they wanted in the middle, as Marquette’s big men couldn’t even post them up without committing a foul. Along with Curry, the Lopez’s have had the best tournament to date.

The problem for Stanford isn’t so much the offensive play of their guards. In fact, their much maligned backcourt of Mitch Johnson, Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill held their own. Johnson had 16 assists in the win over Marquette (most of those going to Lopez 1 and Lopez 2), which was a second round NCAA tournament record. The problem for Stanford is the defensive play of their guards. As easy as the Lopez twins had it inside, Marquette’s three-guard rotation had it just as easy outside. No one in the Stanford backcourt could stop Jerel McNeal or Dominic James from driving or shooting the three. It was real exciting to see strength verses strength, and it took a last second shot for the Cardinal to win the most thrilling game of the tournament.

Texas poses a similar threat. As most fans know by now, the initial-twins of D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams are probably the best guard tandem in the entire country. The two combine for 36 points and 8 assists per game. Augustin is the most complete guard remaining in the tournament and is sure to be a lottery pick. He does it all. He’s a solid defender who can create his own shot outside or on the drive and he can pass the ball better than almost everyone else in Division 1. He has carried this team since the beginning of the season

Augustin is the reason Texas is here, but he’s also the reason they’re vulnerable. He has no true backup. So when he’s sitting, or when he gets in foul trouble, the Longhorns get lost on the court. When he’s having a bad game, Texas had no chance. As good as Abrams is, he cannot carry this team the way Augustin can. Even with Augustin in the lineup, Texas has been weak against physical teams. They’ve lost to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Texas A&M and Kansas (along with two curious losses to Texas Tech and Missouri). All four of those teams are good to great perimeter defenders, and all have an overwhelming advantage inside.

Stanford possesses that advantage inside, but not the great outside defense. Which makes this game, at least in my mind, a virtual tossup. The home advantage for Texas may actually put more pressure on the young Horns like Gary Johnson, Damion James and Justin Mason, all of whom play supporting roles to Augustin and all of whom have little to no tournament experience. Or it may completely overwhelm Stanford. I like what I’ve seen from the Lopez twins, and call me crazy, but I think that the Stanford guards can at least hold their own. If they hold Augustin and Adams to slightly under their usual 36 per game, Stanford wins. I think the Lopez twins have another big game (somewhere in the 40 point vicinity) and the Cardinal eeks out another close win.
Pick: Stanford 80, Texas 79


Imagine 14-feet of Lopez coming at you...not pleasant.