Maryland Basketball: No Difference A Year Makes

Maryland Terrapins (18-11, 7-8 ACC) vs.
Virginia Cavaliers (9-17, 3-12 ACC)
John Paul Jones Arena - Charlottesville, VA

It’s really hard to get upset about losing when you know the team is putting forth their best effort. There is no doubt in my mind that the Terps played their best basketball in the month of February and continue to do so into March. They aren’t losing because of lack of effort. They are losing because of things like lack of height. And obviously that’s something you can’t coach.

Again, that’s something that we’ve been expecting all season. I was shocked when UNC just kept jacking up threes. Even more shocked when NC State stopped passing the ball to Tracy Smith, who was having a field day against Landon Milbourne and Dave Neal. On Tuesday, a team finally took advantage of Maryland’s shortcomings (please excuse the pun). The Terps were outrebounded by 18, and whenever Wake needed a big basket, all the Deacons did was toss the ball inside. If the first big man didn’t make the shot, there were several other big men waiting for the putback. There’s just nothing Maryland can do about that until next season.

The crack staff here at The Predictor has been monitoring the bubble all week. And for the most part, despite Maryland’s loss, the bubble has been good to the Terps this week. A two-point loss to the tenth ranked team in the country isn’t bad. However, other teams weren’t so lucky with their defeats. First the bad news for Maryland. Both bad results occurred on Thursday. Penn State got the victory against a ranked foe it so desperately needed. It doesn’t matter that it was at home and the Nittany Lions needed a last second shot to win it. It also doesn’t matter that the opponent was Illinois…a team that Penn State already beat in a thrilling 38-33 (yes, that was the final score) contest. At this point, the win itself was huge. Tennessee also won, but they were probably making the tournament even if they lost to South Carolina.

Now the good news. Both Notre Dame and Georgetown officially excused themselves from whatever ridiculous chances they had left of grabbing an at large bid. Kansas State may have had its at large chances snapped in Stillwater. Cincinnati somehow lost to South Florida. Not sure how that happened. Just a terrible loss for the Bearcats. Florida, Kentucky and Virginia Tech all lost on Wednesday. Miami also lost to Georgia Tech, guaranteeing themselves of a sub-.500 conference record. Providence and Arizona lost on Thursday. Right now, there are only three teams that should get bids from the SEC (LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina). Kentucky is right on the fence. Florida should be done. In the Big Ten, other than the obvious three (Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois); Minnesota and Wisconsin have done enough to grab bids. I’m still not sold on Ohio State or even Penn State. The Big East seems to be cutoff at seven teams. The Pac-10 may not get five with Arizona slipping. The Big XII has turned out to be stronger than expected, as Texas A&M and Oklahoma State will join Oklahoma, Mizzou, Kansas and Texas. So there are still several at large bids there for Maryland’s taking.

With that said, we’ve been down this road before. It was just last year that Maryland entered their season finale at Virginia needing a win against a bad Cavaliers team and couldn’t get one. True, that squad had Sean Singletary, but they were still terrible. The Hoos look even worse this time around. They may have the one roster in the ACC that is worse than Maryland’s from top to bottom. The positives? Calvin Baker seems like a nice player. Jamil Tucker gets hot every once and awhile. Sylvan Landesberg has been as good as the hype surrounding him coming out of high school. The negatives? Well, the rest of the team really. Mamadi Diane and Tunji Soroye still getting playing time. Dave Leitao’s coaching. I could keep going. It hasn’t been pretty in Charlottesville since J.R. Reynolds left Singletary alone in the backcourt. Leitao has failed miserably in the last couple of seasons. The rebuilding job he has will take at least two to three more seasons. That’s assuming that UVA gives him the chance to do it.

Virginia is not big, they are not quick, they don’t play team defense and they struggle in just about every phase of the game. If it weren’t for Georgia Tech sinking like rock to the bottom of the ACC standings, the Hoos would be the worst team in the conference by far. If Maryland plays like they have the past month, then they’ll find a way to win. It may not be pretty, but it doesn’t have to be at this point. However, if Maryland overlooks Virginia and starts focusing on the ACC Tournament, then they will lose. The Terps simply do not have the talent to overlook any team this season. That includes one of the worst Virginia teams in recent memory. Maryland needs two more wins. This has to, and most likely, be one of them.

Maryland 74
Virginia 67

ACC Picks:
Boston College 78, Georgia Tech 66
Miami 65, Boston College 61
Florida State 75, Virginia Tech 65
North Carolina 92, Duke 78
Clemson 82, Wake Forest 80