2009 NCAA Tournament: Midwest/South Regional Finals

I knew I should have picked Villanova, I even wrote that yesterday. Despite one of the dumbest plays I’ve seen in awhile (the full court inbounds pass with ten seconds left), Scottie Reynolds finally had a game to remember on the national stage. I’m now 45-13 for the tournament with five games remaining. Because it is so late in the day, I’m going to speed through these two games briefly.


#2 Michigan State Spartans (29-6, 15-3 Big Ten) vs.
#1 Louisville Cardinals (31-5, 16-2 Big East)
Midwest Regional Final
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
I don’t know how many of you were able to catch the Louisville-Arizona game on Friday. If you didn’t tune into the first ten minutes, chances were CBS switched away from the game to show Syracuse-Oklahoma (not that that game was any better). It was ugly from the word go. Arizona made a valiant run in this tournament and had to weather three straight days of media blowhard after media blowhard talking bad about them. The Wildcats were just no match for anything Louisville threw at them. In fact, I doubt any team in the country could have hung with Louisville on Friday night. If they play like that three more times, they win the National Championship. Plain and simple.

Michigan State caught a break against Kansas. The Jayhawks went up five with a couple of minutes remaining and should have put that game to bed. Instead, they allowed Michigan State to get several second chance opportunities and go on a 12-2 run to end the game. I’m sure some of that was the Spartans tenacity on the board, but it was also Kansas failing to finish out MSU. I don’t think Michigan State deserved to make it this far. They’ve caught several generous bounces and calls at the end of the last two rounds. I don’t see this game coming down to the final two minutes, so it shouldn’t be a problem again.

The Spartans have proven one thing. They’ve proven that they are about more than Kalin Lucas. Even though he is their best player, and almost single-handedly guided MSU to a win over Kansas, the rest of the Spartans have chipped in along the way. Goran Suton has prove that he’s more than a Euro-stiff. Raymar Morgan has made key baskets. Travis Walton, Durrell Summers and even Draymond Green have played crucial minutes. The healthier the team has gotten, the more balanced they’ve become. MSU is more difficult to guard now than they were at this point in February. Again, it won’t matter. The Cardinals are too balanced even for Michigan State. If it’s not Earl Clark, it’s Terrence Williams. If it’s not Williams, it’s Samardo Samuels. If it’s not Samuels, it’s Jerry Smith or Edgar Sosa. Then you throw in Rick Pitino’s coaching ability, and this appears to be juggernaut that can’t be stopped.
Pick: Louisville 80, Michigan State 66


#2 Oklahoma Sooners (30-5, 13-3 Big XII) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (31-4, 13-3 ACC)
South Regional Final
FedEx Forum – Memphis, TN
Here’s the main course for the day. The obvious storyline is the Tyler Hansbrough-Blake Griffin slugfest inside. For sake of time, and to avoid needlessly breaking down the two players, let’s just go ahead and call that match a draw. Griffin may be the slight favorite, but I think the two players will basically cancel each other out in terms of production. It’s the rest of the teams that need a little bit of analysis.

Start with the coaches. I think it’s a strong advantage to Roy Williams, and that’s rare to say. Williams is a great recruiter, a great showman. He knows how to handle his bench. But he’s not a good X’s and O’s coach. He relies heavily on his superior talent and depth to win games. But Jeff Capel is not someone that I’m really impressed with. As I said, he lucked into a great team that Kelvin Sampson recruited. He failed to do adjusting or coaching of any sort when Griffin was out with a concussion. Oklahoma looked completely lost without Griffin, and Capel is to blame. His Oklahoma teams have also had trouble in second halves of games, with or without Griffin. Again, that is on the coach. Williams is the better coach, and that’s saying a lot about Capel’s inability. Should be interesting to see what happens to OU without Griffin and Willie Warren next season.

Warren has to match up with Ty Lawson, who appears as healthy as possible (and it was possible that Lawson and Williams were playing possum with media about the severity of the injury to begin with). Warren may be a better NBA prospect than Lawson, but Ty is a better player right now and he should have the advantage at point. The remaining supporting cast favors UNC slightly. Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson are better and more consistent than Taylor Griffin (foul prone), Tony Crocker (hot against Cuse, but struggled all month before that) and Austin Johnson (doesn’t have a defined role for OU). And other than Juan Pattillo off the bench, there isn’t a whole lot to cancel out UNC’s 9 to 10 deep rotation. It will be close, but it appears that UNC has the slight advantage at just about every position.
Pick: North Carolina 82, Oklahoma 79