2009 NCAA Tournament: Round 1, Day 2

I went 14-2 yesterday, and one of the losses was Oliver Purnell related. I shouldn't be blamed for that. Anyway, it will be interesting today because I've picked several upsets. Let's see if the record holds.

EAST REGION

University of Dayton Arena
Dayton, OH
#16 East Tennessee State Buccaneers (23-10, 14-6 A-Sun) vs.
#1 Pittsburgh Panthers (28-4, 15-3 Big East)
Jamie Dixon is back! And this time with a number one seed. Surely this means the Panthers can’t choke before the Sweet 16 this season…right?
Pick: Pittsburgh 73, East Tennessee State 48

#9 Tennessee Volunteers (21-12, 10-6 SEC) vs.
#8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-11, 9-7 Big XII)
I know that the Vols lost Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith from last year, but there is just too much talent on the roster for Tennessee to be as bad as they were this season. Bruce Pearl, as gifted a showman and recruiter as he may be, is turning out to be an average coach. His teams have folded twice in the NCAA Tournament to competition they probably should have beaten. Pearl’s Volunteers needed 40 minutes to dispose of American last season in the first round. And this season, Pearl has taken Top 10 talent and turned them into a national afterthought.

OSU is the hotter team. Their win over rival Oklahoma in the Big XII tournament should give them some momentum coming into the big dance. Their only losses in the past month were a four point loss in Norman and an eight point loss to Missouri last weekend. The Cowboys have the horses to run up and down the court with Tennessee, and have the guards to score if the Volunteers happen to get hot. James Anderson and Byron Eaton are tweeners who can score, rebound and distribute. I like OSU’s versatility and I really like how they entered the tournament.
Pick: Oklahoma State 77, Tennessee 69

Taco Bell Arena
Boise, ID
#13 Portland State Vikings (23-9, 11-5 Big Sky) vs.
#4 Xavier Musketeers (25-7, 12-4 A-10)
There are three great examples of the pod system not working. First, why in the world is Villanova allowed to play at the Wachovia Center. That is their second home arena. I don’t care if they didn’t play “enough” home games to have it qualify as a host site. That practice has got to stop. The second example is the Boise sub-regional. I know it’s tough to get local teams to Boise, seeing as Idaho, Montana and Wyoming aren’t exactly bastions of college basketball. But Boise is hosting Xavier, Missouri, Florida State and Cornell this weekend. Two of those teams, including Xavier, are “protected” seeds. I’m not sure how sending those schools to Boise is protecting them, or cutting down on travel time. The third example is even more curious, and we’ll get to it soon.


Nothing says "big game" like Boise, Idaho. I'm sure all FSU's fans are looking forward to a vacation in a city whose average March temperature is 45 degrees.

As for Xavier, I thought last year’s team, with six capable scores, was much better than this year’s squad. Xavier managed to lose five times in conference (if you include the A-10 tournament) and only one of those was to Temple and one to Dayton. Losses to Duquesne, Charlotte and Richmond really have me questioning how good the Muskies are. Portland State is a gift #13 seed for Xavier, and they should have no problems here. The Vikings are about two seeds two high, and won’t be able to handle the initial wonders of B.J. Raymond and C.J. Anderson. However, PSU is the second best three-point shooting team in the country. If they get hot, they have a puncher’s chance.
Pick: Xavier 73, Portland State 63

#12 Wisconsin Badgers (19-12, 10-8 Big Ten) vs.
#5 Florida State Seminoles (25-9, 10-6 ACC)
The Noles return to the dance for the first time in 11 years. Looks like Leonard Hamilton finally did something right. Now how in the world he didn’t manage to make the tournament when he had both Toney Douglas and Al Thornton on the same team is a question that should be asked. But right now, people in Tallahassee are ignoring that.

Other than the trip to Boise, FSU has to be pretty happy with their initial draw. They get the weakest Big Ten school in the field and they potentially get a struggling mid-major in the 2nd round. On Selection Sunday, analysts were shocked – SHOCKED – to see the Badgers as a 12 seed. Surely this was a team that should have been an eight or nine. I’m not sure what was so preposterous. Wisconsin was 19-12 in a bad basketball conference. They had a six-game losing streak in January. Their season-saving five-game winning streak in February isn’t that impressive since two of the wins came against Iowa and Indiana. Six of their ten conference wins came to teams below them in the standings. This team would be lucky to get a 12 seed in the NIT (and yes, I know the NIT seeds only go to eight…thank you Mr. NIT Expert). Wisconsin doesn’t belong here and FSU will expose them.
Pick: Florida State 66, Wisconsin 52

SOUTH REGION

American Airlines Arena
Miami, FL
#14 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (24-7, 13-3 Southland) vs.
#3 Syracuse Orange (26-9, 11-7 Big East)
By allowing Syracuse to get a three seed, the committee is basically telling major teams across the nation that the regular season is worthless. All you have to do is show up to your conference tournament, win a couple of games (and it wouldn’t hurt if one was a headline grabbing 6-OT game) and lose in the later rounds respectively. Nevermind the seven conference losses, including one to Georgetown. Or the sixth place finish in the overrated Big East. Or the out of conference loss to Cleveland State. Nevermind that the point guard is a thug who beats up women. No, the Orange had a good three days in New York City, and that’s good enough for the committee. Here’s your three seed and the worst 14th seeded team to go with it. Enjoy!
Pick: Syracuse 78, Stephen F. Austin 61

#11 Temple Owls (22-11, 11-5 A-10) vs.
#6 Arizona State Sun Devils (24-9, 11-7 Pac-10)
Is it just me, or do all the 11 seeds in this tournament look really good? I had UCLA escaping in the first round from VCU, but I don’t like the chances for any of the other sixes. Temple, for several reasons, looks really appealing to me. I’ve seen them play in person once, and they looked real sharp at The Palestra for 39 minutes against St. Joe’s. They almost blew it at the free throw line, but that wasn’t what I was paying attention to. Other than Dionte Christmas, who stands out in every game he plays, I was amazed at how good a passing team the Owls are. Everyone passes the ball real well, including some of their awkward big men. There are six guys on this team that average two or more assists per game. Temple is reliant on Christmas to have a big game, but they do have two players who can score inside if need be. With Lavoy Allen averaging 11 and 9, it’s not entirely a one man show.


The more Temple wins, the more lame Christmas jokes we'll have to suffer through. Prepare yourself.

Arizona State looked like a team to be reckoned with back in mid-February. Since that time, they have not played great basketball. On Saturday, they choked away a 15-point halftime lead to the sixth place Pac-10 team. James Harden is terrific player, but when he doesn’t score, the Sun Devils struggle to win. Temple plays solid defense, and I don’t think it will be easy for Harden to get his 20 points per game. Although it is nice to picture the NC State fans having to watch Herb Sendek in a tournament game while the Wolfpack missed the tournament…again.
Pick: Temple 68, Arizona State 62

MIDWEST REGION

University of Dayton Arena
Dayton, OH
#16 Morehead State Eagles (20-15, 12-6 OVC) vs.
#1 Louisville Cardinals (28-5, 16-2 Big East)
I was unhappy to see that Morehead State (please no laughing, grow-up people) knocked off Alabama State in the play-in – err – opening round game. Otherwise I would have been able to talk about Alabama State’s 7’1” center Chief Kickingstallionsims, who would definitely have a place at center on my all-name team (I don’t know who else would be on that team at the current moment, but I think I’d also reserve a space for God Shammgod). Tough break for Alabama State and Kickingstallionsims.

I was also happy and unhappy to see the Cardinals get the number one overall seed. I was happy for Rick Pitino, who continues to be one of my favorite coaches for the way his teams press and play defense. I was unhappy because I was hoping that Louisville would grab a two seed, and I could pick them to win the National Championship while everyone else picked either Pitt or UNC. My mind was made up in early March that the Cards would win it all. But my secret is out now.
Pick: Louisville 80, Morehead State 53

#9 Siena Saints (26-7, 16-2 MAAC) vs.
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (22-10, 10-8 Big Ten)
Ugh, I really don’t want to talk about this game. Nothing says ugly basketball like a mid-major that can’t score against good teams and a Big Ten team. I wasn’t impressed with Siena last season, even when they stomped on Vanderbilt in the first round. I’m even less impressed with them this season, and they should really be a 12 or 13 seed. Plus, the Buckeyes got a gift with a virtual home game in Dayton. Ohio State is probably just good enough to win.
Pick: Ohio State 64, Siena 57

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, MN
#15 Robert Morris Colonials (24-10, 15-3 NEC) vs.
#2 Michigan State Spartans (26-6, 15-3 Big Ten)
Even though Duke is the weakest #2 seed in the field, if I had to pick one #2 to lose in the first round, it would be Michigan State. They still aren’t playing as a complete unit thanks to their plethora of injuries. Even when healthy, the Spartans don’t score enough to run away from a lot of opponents…even lesser ones. However, Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas are more physical than anyone RMU possesses. With no player taller than 6’7”, RMU will get worn down by the second half.
Pick: Michigan State 72, Robert Morris 56

#10 Southern California Trojans (22-11, 9-7 Pac-10) vs.
#7 Boston College Eagles (22-11, 9-7 ACC)
The Trojans picked the right time to get hot, and managed to surprise the Pac-10 from the sixth seed to clinch the automatic birth. Otherwise, despite playmakers like Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett and freshman star DeMar DeRozan, USC would have been sitting at home. This is not similar case to Mississippi State, a team ran through a conference that was wide open. The Pac-10 has several good to great teams at the top. So what took the Trojans so long to realize their potential? Well, they are the worst three-point shooting team in their conference. With a bunch of “stars”, there isn’t a lot of focus on team defense. And there is no contribution from the bench. In three tournament games, the Trojans got fewer than 20 points combined from their bench.

The Eagles aren’t deep either. As Maryland fans know by now, Tyrese Rice is their only real scoring threat of note. Sometimes Rakim Sanders gets frisky. And it always seems like one of the other starters will step up in a big game. But other than 18 to 20 a game from Rice, there is no reliable scoring option for Al Skinner. He’s been using smoke and mirrors all season to get BC to 22-11. I think the Trojans will stay hot for a little longer, just hot enough to knock off the Eagles.
Pick: Southern Cal 66, Boston College 65

***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#14 North Dakota State Bison (26-6, 16-2 Summit) vs.
#3 Kansas Jayhawks (25-7, 14-2 Big XII)
Congrats to the Bison! NDSU, in their first year of NCAA Tournament eligibility, brought March Madness to the Dakotas for the first time. It’s a great story, and one that could conceivably continue. The Bison are a senior-heavy team, and even though they obviously don’t have tournament experience, lots of seniors counts for something at this time of year. They also have Ben Woodside, who is the leading scorer for all tournament teams. He averaged almost 23 ppg and had a 60-point game against Stephen F. Austin earlier this season. This team is only a few years removed from beating Wisconsin in Madison and beating Minnesota in this very city.


You aren't alone if you've never heard of Ben Woodside. Hopefully Kansas brushes up on his scoring abilities.

Against any other three seed, I would really consider taking the Bison (especially against either of the three seeds from the Big East). However, Bill Self has finally removed the hex that hovered over the Jayhawks during Roy Williams’ tenure. This is no longer a program that can’t win in March. This is no longer a team that is going to lose to Bucknell. Even though Kansas recently lost to both Texas Tech and Baylor, they also managed to beat Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas within the past month. Great season for the Bison, but they didn’t luck out with their first round matchup.
Pick: Kansas 77, North Dakota State 68

#11 Dayton Flyers (26-7, 11-5 A-10) vs.
#6 West Virginia Mountaineers (23-11, 10-8 Big East)
Minneapolis is the Gus Johnson region, and since I don’t see an upset in the other three games (since I don’t count USC beating BC as a huge upset), then I have a feeling this is going to be the one. It wouldn’t be the first round without Gus leaving one of his lungs on press row.

The more I look at West Virginia, the worse they look. They have a lot of medium-sized guys. Not a lot of true power forwards. Certainly no point guards of any note with Joe Mazzulla out for the season. Freshman Darryl Bryant runs the point. Freshmen and March don’t go together well. WVU doesn’t rebound all that well. They are good on the defensive end under Bob Huggins, but tend to get complacent from time to time. It’s a team that’s ripe for an upset.

Dayton has had some bad losses in conference. But they beat the Big East’s Marquette when Dominic James was healthy, and Marquette was better than WVU during the season. Both Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson can take games over. WVU has also been strictly average away from home…as most Huggins teams are. I like the Flyers and I hear a classic Gus Johnson call in the making.
Pick: Dayton 68, West Virginia 64

American Airlines Arena
Miami, FL
#13 Cleveland State Vikings (25-10, 10-6 Horizon) vs.
#4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (24-6, 11-5 ACC)
So the Deacs return to the NCAA Tournament with a lot of questions surrounding them. Five of their six conference losses were of the bizarre variety, falling to ACC teams well beneath them in the standings. However, this is still the same Wake team that owns victories over UNC, Duke, Clemson and Florida State. But make no mistake about it, this team struggles away from Winston-Salem because of their youth, and their inexperience will be their eventual undoing. Not here though, not against an also-ran from an average mid-major conference.
Pick: Wake Forest 77, Cleveland State 61

#12 Arizona Wildcats (19-13, 9-9 Pac-10) vs.
#5 Utah Utes (24-9, 12-4 Mountain West)
And now for the third example of how the pod system isn’t working. If you choose to skip South Beach and head to the Heat’s basketball arena for the day, you’ll get to see Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. Not the easiest locale for their fans to get to. And both Utah and Arizona possess rather large fan bases. Is there no way for some of these teams to play in Boise, Portland or even Kansas City?

As for the actual game, there’s been a lot of whining about Arizona. But I’m going with the Wildcats in this one. They remind me a lot of last year’s Villanova team that made the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed. They have two NBA ready players in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, which is a luxury the Utes do not have. Plus, the main reason Zona made the dance is their out of conference gauntlet. That included wins over Kansas, Gonzaga and San Diego State. Add in wins against UW and UCLA, and that’s good enough for me.
Pick: Arizona 72, Utah 71

WEST REGION

Taco Bell Arena
Boise, ID
#14 Cornell Big Red (21-9, 11-3 Ivy) vs.
#3 Missouri Tigers (28-6, 12-4 Big XII)
It will be interesting to see how the Ivy League kids handle the newest installment of “40 Minutes of Hell”. I don’t think they saw anything like it during their SAT’s.
Pick: Missouri 83, Cornell 55

#11 Utah State Aggies (30-4, 14-2 WAC) vs.
#6 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9, 12-6 Big East)
I’ve been targeting Marquette for a first round exit ever since Dominic James got hurt. In many ways, this Marquette team is comparable to the Indiana team that limped into the tournament last year after Kelvin Sampson was fired. While losing a player is not as serious as NCAA violations and probation, it seems to have the same effect on Marquette. This has been a dead team walking since early March.

Utah State is one of only two teams entering the tournament with 30 wins, and they are a very good team. Don’t let the mid-major label fool you. If Gonzaga went 30-4, they’d be a two seed. USU has to have this kind of season on a consistent basis to get better seeding in the future. Gary Wilkinson is a great story. He went from high school dropout who had never picked up a basketball, to WAC Player of the Year in less than six years. He’s turned his life around, picked up the game very easily, gotten married and is about to lead the Aggies to a first round win.
Pick: Utah State 70, Marquette 63