2009 NCAA Tournament: Invited...And It Feels So Good

#10 Maryland Terrapins (20-13, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#7 California Golden Bears (22-10, 11-7 Pac-10)
NCAA Tournament 1st Round, West Region
Sprint Center – Kansas City, MO

Like most parties, you may decide not to show up, you’re not sure who else is going, but being invited is always nice. And it was nice to see the Terps get an invite to the NCAA Tournament. Now we could sit here for hours and debate whether they deserved to go. Here is the short answer. Compared to last season’s Maryland team, or several others that haven’t made the NCAA Tourney, this Maryland team doesn’t deserve to get in. They simply aren’t that good. However, when you compare the Terps to the other bubble teams, then it’s obvious to most casual basketball observers (including the committee) that Maryland did indeed deserve their invite to the dance. What, you’d rather see Penn State?

As far as the seeding goes, is Maryland a bit high? Yeah, probably. Maybe by one slot. But I’ve always argued that seeding is never really important. The year Maryland won the NCAA Tournament, and they were seeded as a #1, they had to play Wisconsin (8 seed), Kentucky (4 seed), Connecticut (2 seed), Kansas (1 seed) and finally Indiana (the easiest of the bunch at a 5 seed). It didn’t matter that Maryland was a one seed. They had to play five legitimately good teams to win the championship. That very same year, Indiana got to play Utah (12 seed), UNC-Wilmington (13 seed), Duke (a very weak 1 seed), Kent State (10 seed) and Oklahoma (2 seed) before facing Maryland. Indiana as a five seed had an easier road than Maryland did as a one. So it doesn’t necessarily matter where you are seeded because sometimes the chalk holds and sometimes it doesn’t. Really, does Maryland have a better chance of reaching the second weekend as a 10 seed rather than an 11? Uh, no.

The complaint shouldn’t be where one team is seeded and another isn’t. The complaint should always be focused around did your team get in the tournament or did your team get left out. For all the Kansas fans complaining about a 3 seed or Clemson fans complaining about a 7 seed, let me ask you this: would you rather be where you are than where St. Mary’s is? Or Penn State? Or any of the other 280-something teams that didn’t get into the tournament? Your team is in, stop complaining. I said this two years ago, to advance in this tournament, you are going to have to beat a plethora of good teams. It doesn’t matter what your seed is.

Maryland’s draw looks rather interesting. I think the Terps landed in the most wide open quarter of the bracket. The one seed is UConn, which hasn’t played all that well since losing Jerome Dyson. Memphis and Missouri are the two and three seeds. Both teams have shown plenty of promise, but Memphis doesn’t play anyone decent after New Year’s and Missouri has no tournament experience. The four seed is Washington, a team that won the Pac-10 regular season title, but didn’t do so convincingly. They also looked terrible in the Pac-10 tournament. And it’s not as if the Pac-10 as a whole is lighting the country on fire. Purdue checks in at the five seed. They are an anomaly. The Boilers are a Big Ten team that can actually score. But they play very little defense. They even struggled to keep fellow Big Ten teams off the board. Now they are going to have to face real offenses. Marquette is the six seed, and like UConn, they have not been the same since losing one of their top players, Dominic James. After that, it is a potpourri of good, but obviously flawed teams. Texas A&M, BYU, Utah State and Mississippi State could all potentially make noise, but none are all that scary to better seeded teams. Same goes for California. More on them in a moment.

I want to go back to something that I’ve loosely been talking about for the past month. If Gary Williams didn’t prove how good a coach he is this season, than he never will. He took a roster with no capable player taller than 6’7” and managed to do enough in one of the deepest years in the history of the ACC to make the NCAA Tournament. I’d like to see any other coach in America get the current Maryland roster to 20 wins. Yes, you can say what you will about him as a recruiter. It is partially his fault his roster looks the way it does. But you can never question his coaching abilities. Ever. This team should be a 15-16 win team and 4-12 or 5-11 in the ACC. At best. I don’t want to hear one more Maryland fan, or opposing fan, or local columnist ever question Gary’s ability to coach. No one else in the country could have willed this current team to 20 wins with victories over UNC, Michigan State and Wake Forest. No one. Kudos Gary on another job well done.


In College Park, there's always time for an awkward man hug.

Now let’s talk a little bit about the Golden Bears. At first glance, our friends from Berkeley seem to be an above average Pac-10 team. And in many ways they are. They have several glaring deficiencies. The main one, like Maryland, is their inability to rebound and establish consistent inside play. Cal possesses tall players, but most of them are projects and don’t contribute. Both of Cal’s 7-footers see very little time. They have a couple of other players who are hovering around 6’8” that do contribute. Jamal Boykin is a little small, but is not out of position playing power forward. He leads the team in rebounding with 6.4 per. As a whole, California only grabs 33.7 rebounds a game, which is less than the Terps.

One reason that Cal doesn’t grab a whole lot of rebounds is that they don’t miss a whole lot of shots. They shoot 48.5% from the floor, which is well above the national average. The thing that worries me, and should worry all Maryland fans, is the fact that Cal shoots 43.4% for three. That is the best percentage in the nation…by far. The next closest team is fellow NCAA squad Portland State, and they are a full percent-and-a-half behind the Bears. Leading the charge from beyond the arc is Jerome Randle. This is Cal’s version of Greivis Vasquez, except he is much smaller and shoots much better. At only 5’10”, it is not impossible to defend Randle on the perimeter. But he is one of the quickest guards in the country and loves to create his own shot. In fact, he’s probably more comparable to Ty Lawson than Vasquez. He leads the Bears in both points (18.4) and assists (4.9) per game. The 50% FG percentage is really astonishing considering how small he is and how many threes he takes.


Hopefully Maryland will play defense better than this against Jerome Randle.

Along with Randle, the Golden Bears possess two other threats. Both are 6’5” swing players who are probably a bit too large and slow to be shooting guards, but are too short to be small forwards. Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson both are well over double digits in scoring. But other than that, neither one of them contributes on the glass (both under four per game) or in distributing (both slightly above two assists per game, low for guards who get a lot of playing time). Neither one is able to play great defense. Christopher isn’t much of threat from the outside but can drive. Robertson shoots better than Randle from the three point line but doesn’t do much other than hang around the perimeter. In other words, both are dangerous, but without Randle feeding them the ball, they tend to struggle. Neither one is a complete player. Offensively they tend to be one-dimensional and their defense is nothing to write home about.

After that, there is a real drop-off for Cal. Other than Boykin, they have no one else averaging close to double digits. Only two guys leave the bench. The three guards average well over 30 minutes a game. Jordan Wilkes, one of the 7-footers, will start at center. But as I said above, he’s a real project. He’s not smooth in anything he does. His stamina isn’t great. He’s below 20 minutes per game, which is the red flag. If he could contribute consistently, at his height, you know he’d be out on the floor more. To his credit, he hasn’t fouled out once this season, but that’s probably because he doesn’t see enough playing time. This is a seven-man team, and the bench is barely responsible for 10% of the scoring. In many ways, this is a team like Virginia Tech. There is a three-headed monster, but if you limit Randle, the rest of this team will fall apart. And unlike Tech, there’s no Jeff Allen waiting inside to get a rebound or flip off the crowd.

The Bears are coached by Mike Montgomery. He coached across the bay at Stanford for 18 years from 1986-2004. His teams were always good but often flopped in the NCAA Tournament (1998 being the one exception and Final Four run). Montgomery took a quick sabbatical/NBA coaching gig/NBA failure with Golden State, before returning to California before this season. Jeez, someone needs to tell Mike there is life outside the greater Bay Area. What’s a road trip for this guy…Sacramento? Anyway, Montgomery inherited very little in Berkeley and has done a nice job turning it around in one season.

When looking at these two teams from style of play, statistics and other factors, Maryland and California are really similar to one another. They are both dominated by guard play, especially the play of one guard in particular. Both teams struggle inside on both ends. Both teams shoot very well from the free throw line. Maryland’s defensive numbers are slightly better than Cal’s, but the Bears shooting percentages are much better than Maryland’s. How much of that is skill, and how much of that is Pac-10 defenses not being as good as ACC defenses will be determined Thursday.

Here are three things that Maryland needs to do to win this game. First, lose the zone defense. It won’t work here. I know it’s worked somewhat well recently, but that was against NC State and Wake, two teams that you can zone into taking terrible shots. The zone was largely ineffective against Duke, who easily shot over it. Cal shoots better than the Dookies. A zone would be suicide. Go back to man-to-man, but make sure someone like Landon Milbourne is available to help on the speedy Randle if he blows by his man. Secondly, and this goes with the man-to-man defense, Maryland needs to press the Bears all day. Again, this team is only seven deep, and none of the big men are that athletic. If the press and fast break can tire them out early, Maryland might actually have the advantage inside. I know…hard to believe. Finally, give the ball to Vasquez. I know this sounds obvious. But the Bears have no one to guard him. Randle is too small (he gives up seven inches) and the other two guards are not great defenders. Get Vasquez driving to the basket among the slow forwards and get him to the free throw line. There will be easy points in there. In fact, all the guards would be well advised to attack the basket. The Terps will find it much easier than attacking the basket in ACC play. The only person who should be taking threes is whoever finds themselves against Randle (most likely Hayes or Mosley). If it’s Hayes, then fire away. Otherwise, please attack the rim.

It’s fun to be back in the dance, and it’s fun to see a different team from across the country. Other intangibles: Maryland has played much better the past month than the Bears. California seemed to peak in mid-February. Since then they’ve lost ugly to Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA and USC (in the Pac-10 tournament). So the Terps should have some momentum coming in from that win against Wake, and even the win against UNC.

I don’t see the crowd being much of factor. Maryland will probably travel better than Cal, but the difference probably won’t be noticeable. I have a feeling that Cal will be streaky in this game, so Maryland is going to have to endure a series of three-point basket runs. But it shouldn’t matter if the Terps go inside. Last time Gary and Montgomery squared off, Gary out-coached him for 40 minutes in the NCAA Regional Final in Anaheim in 2001. I’d like to think the coaching advantage still favors Williams.

It has been nothing short of a remarkable run for Maryland. This team should not be in the tournament, but Gary Williams has willed them there with a brilliant and emotional coaching job. Anything from here on out is gravy. But while we’re out in Kansas City, how about a win? Let’s just take it one step at a time.

Maryland 77
California 72


2009 BRACKETS

Day number one, here we go across the rest of the country. I have plenty of good stuff so hopefully you’ll read through it. I don’t have a lot of upsets today (just two according to the seedings). But I promise you, there are juicy ones coming up tomorrow. So let’s fire this thing up in honor of Jimmy Valvano, Bryce Drew and Gus Johnson…who is already screaming somewhere even though he won’t start calling games until Friday.

There are two ways to predict the tournament games. The most common, and the one used in office pools and online challenges, is the locked bracket. You make all your picks at once and you have up until the first game to change it. After that, if your championship team loses in the first round, you are pretty much screwed. You keep track of those using a point system (1 point for a first round win, 2 points for a second round win, etc…). I will put in my locked bracket in a minute. However, I also want to predict and talk about each game. So before each round of action, I analyze the games for that upcoming day. Even if I didn’t have either team in my locked bracket, I will make new predictions for each round. For example, I have Gonzaga and Western Kentucky advancing to the second round. If both Gonzaga and WKU lose in the first round, it will hurt my locked bracket for the rest of the tournament (Not only would I lose two points for getting the games wrong, but I would not be able to pick up two points for the next round). In the “refreshing bracket”, I would be charged for the two losses as usual. However, I would be able to make a new prediction on the second round game between Akron and Illinois that I wouldn’t be able to make if the bracket was locked. Those picks will come daily. I’ll keep track of those picks using a win/loss record.

Locked bracket is as follows:

East
1st round winners: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Florida State, Villanova, UCLA, Duke, Texas
2nd round winners: Pittsburgh, Florida State, Villanova, Texas
Sweet 16 winners: Pittsburgh, Villanova
East Regional Finalist: Pittsburgh

South
1st round winners: UNC, LSU, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Temple, Oklahoma, Clemson
2nd round winners: UNC, Gonzaga, Temple, Oklahoma
Sweet 16 winners: UNC, Oklahoma
South Regional Finalist: North Carolina

Midwest
1st round winners: Louisville, Ohio State, Wake Forest, Arizona, Kansas, Dayton, Michigan State, USC
2nd round winners: Louisville, Wake Forest, Kansas, Michigan State
3rd round winners: Louisville, Kansas
Midwest Regional Finalist: Louisville

West
1st round winners: Connecticut, BYU, Washington, Purdue, Missouri, Utah State, Memphis, Maryland
2nd round: Connecticut, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis
3rd round: Connecticut, Memphis
West Regional Finalist: Memphis

Final Four
Semifinals: UNC over Pittsburgh, Louisville over Memphis
Finals: Louisville 78, North Carolina 72

This bracket will be saved right on this post for all to come back and laugh at after the tournament’s over. My predictions for the first round games will be identical to the first round picks in the locked bracket (but with analysis). The difference between the locked and refresh brackets will become more obvious on Saturday. Friday’s games will be predicted tomorrow. Enjoy.

EAST REGION

Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, NC
#15 Binghamton Bearcats (23-8, 13-3 America East) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (28-6, 11-5 ACC)
Of all the two seeds, Duke remains the weakest in my mind. Sure they won the ACC Tournament, but didn’t have to go through UNC or Wake to do it (they were a combined 1-3 against the two best teams in the ACC). And it was only a year ago that the Dookies needed several breaks to sneak past 15th-seeded Belmont. Meanwhile, Binghamton clinches it’s first ever bid. It comes complete with an article full of accusations by the New York Times that some Bearcats players may not be academically eligible. And those are the tamest of the accusations. Anyway, this Duke team seems slightly better than last year’s version, but they still may not get to the second weekend.
Pick: Duke 82, Binghamton 68

#10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (22-10, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#7 Texas Longhorns (22-11, 9-7 Big XII)
Tubby Smith continues to turn around a Minnesota program that was a mess only a few seasons ago. While Tubby is dancing, the team that ran him out on a rail will be watching the Big Dance. And while Smith is not the only coach getting revenge on a former team (see: Sendek, Herb), it has to be the most satisfying. The divorce between him and Kentucky was particularly ugly. Most of it had nothing to do with basketball. Turns out Kentucky is still a pretty racist state! Who knew?

While I want to focus more on the Big Ten mediocrity, I’ll skip it here since there will be plenty of time for that later. Texas is a team that really intrigues me. While they have struggled in the Big XII, they’ve had some solid wins outside of the conference. They’ve beaten Villanova, UCLA and Wisconsin. Plus, their point guard play has slowly improved as the season has gone along. I think a venture outside the Big XII will do Texas good…and may even get them to Boston.
Pick: Texas 74, Minnesota 65

Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA
#14 American Eagles (24-7, 13-1 Patriot) vs.
#3 Villanova Wildcats (26-7, 13-5 Big East)
If Jeff Jones is going to jump to a better job, this would be the year to do it. There are seven seniors on this team, and all seven are important. The odds of American reaching the tournament in the next few seasons are slim to none. While I like the Garrison Carr-Derrick Mercer backcourt, the frontcourt for the Eagles continues to be a question mark. They are going to be playing a physical Big East team with undersized Brian Gilmore and Jordan Nichols. Dante Cunningham, a true power forward, will be too much for the smaller Eagles to handle. Only way American wins is if Carr channels a little Stephen Curry.
Pick: Villanova 76, American 63

***THE PREDICTOR GAME OF THE DAY***
#11 VCU Rams (24-9, 14-4 CAA) vs.
#6 UCLA Bruins (25-8, 13-5 Pac-10)
Oh, look out! Here is the popular upset pick. Two years ago, VCU rolled into the tournament at a #11 seed and beat an overrated Duke team with head coach Anthony Grant at the helm and sophomore Eric Maynor as his best weapon. This time, the Rams are a #11 seed with Anthony Grant at the helm and senior Eric Maynor as his best weapon. And now the Rams even have a frontcourt player! Larry Sanders is coming off the CAA Championship Game when he had an eye-popping 18 points, 20 boards and seven blocks. No wonder this smells like an upset.

Conveniently, everyone seems to have forgotten about Darren Collison. He’s only one of the best defensive players in the country. With him, UCLA possesses a defense against Maynor that Duke didn’t have two years ago. While Maynor has the potential to become the Curry of this tournament, and while I correctly picked VCU two years ago against the Dookies, this upset pick seems to be too popular. I’m going to avoid it and go with the veteran Bruins in a close one.
Pick: UCLA 71, VCU 69


The Eric Maynor Stopper.

MEMPHIS REGION

Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, NC
#16 Radford Highlanders (21-11, 15-3 Big South) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (28-4, 13-3 ACC)
Without a healthy Ty Lawson, the Heels can lose to any team in the country. Wait…they’re playing Radford? Nevermind. More on the Heels Saturday.
Pick: North Carolina 93, Radford 69

#9 Butler Bulldogs (26-5, 15-3 Horizon) vs.
#8 LSU Tigers (26-7, 13-3 SEC)
The ultimate toss-up game in round number one. There are several things to dislike about both teams. We’ll start with Butler. Other than their terrible style of basketball, which should automatically qualify them for membership in the Big Ten, the Bulldogs are one of the youngest teams in the country. I don’t know if you’ve paid any attention to the NCAA Tournament for say – I don’t know – 25 years, but young and inexperienced tournament teams tend not to go very far. Plus, this Butler outfit managed to lose three times in Horizon league play and once in the conference tournament. And that doesn’t include the several close calls they had in conference during the regular season. Something tells me that national competition will be a little less forgiving.

On the other hand, you have LSU. Their 13-3 conference mark would usually seem very impressive. That is until you consider the state of the SEC this season. Have you seen this conference lately? Actually, chances are you haven’t, since none of their teams have been relevant this season. The fact that LSU was the best team by far in the conference, and they could only muster an eight seed, should tell you about the SEC as a whole. However, LSU still contains some key players from the team that knocked off Duke a few years ago. So they have a tad more experience than the Bulldogs do (those who remember their upset of Maryland two years ago would not recognize this current Butler team). I think I’ll take my chances with the Tigers in an ugly game. The fact that this will be the first game of the first day is not the best way for CBS to sell the tournament.
Pick: LSU 58, Butler 53

Sprint Center
Kansas City, MO
#15 Morgan State Bears (23-11, 13-3 MEAC) vs.
#2 Oklahoma Sooners (27-5, 13-3 Big XII)
No, the Sooners have not been playing the best basketball for the past month or so. And yes, Morgan State managed to beat Maryland this season. But the Terps didn’t have a guy named Blake Griffin. The Sooners do. That’s where rational discussion of this game ends.
Pick: Oklahoma 86, Morgan State 60

#10 Michigan Wolverines (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#7 Clemson Tigers (23-8, 9-7 ACC)
Again with the Big Ten teams. And this is one of the two that didn’t deserve to make the field. Tell me what about Michigan’s 20-13 record was so appealing. Was it the fact that they only have two players average in double-digits, and the next closest scorer only has 7.0 ppg? Was it the fact they only averaged 67 points a game as a team? How about the fact they only broke 80 in a game four times, and two of them came at the hands of cupcake competition (one was against Duke…go figure). Was it the fact that they barely managed to go 9-9 in the strictly mediocre Big Ten? Or the fact that they managed to lose to awful Iowa just three weeks ago? What exactly about this team screams anything other than NIT?

The Big Ten as a conference was a joke this year. Unless I counted wrong (I did go to Maryland and did not major in math), only five teams in the Big Ten scored 80 or more points in a conference game this season. That is unbelievable. There's a good chance that ACC teams would score 80 or more in conference games five times over the course of a week. This isn’t the 1950’s. This isn’t a case of great defense. It’s a case of terrible offense and bad teams. Other than Michigan State, and possibly Purdue, you can’t possibly expect any of the other five teams that made it to reach the Sweet 16. That Michigan tied for seventh place in this conference and still made The Dance over a team like St. Mary’s is disgusting.

Before I hand it over to Clemson, we always have to take into account the Oliver Purnell Factor. If there is a way to lose, Purnell will help the Tigers figure it out. This team was way too talented to finish at 9-7 in the ACC. Recently, Doug “I hate everyone but Oklahoma State” Gottlieb managed to take the Purnell-hating to a new level. After penciling in Gonzaga to the Elite 8 for the 7th straight year, Gottlieb started talking about Clemson. He actually thinks Michigan will win because, and I quote, “Purnell’s Clemson teams always choke in the tournament.” Always, Doug? They’ve only been in once under Purnell. And they lost a close game to under-seeded Villanova. I’m taking Clemson in a blowout if for no other reason than to pick against Gottlieb.
Pick: Clemson 83, Michigan 66



Annual tournament sponsor Scarlett Johansson is ignoring Big Ten basketball and anything Doug Gottlieb has to say.

Rose Garden
Portland, OR
#13 Akron Zips (23-12, 10-6 MAC) vs.
#4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-5, 14-0 WCC)
I’ll be honest. I don’t know much about the Zips. I like the name. Their mascot is some sort of kangaroo thing. Plus, it makes this the Zips-Zags game! I like it.

Akron was 10-6 in the MAC, which is the Big Ten of mid-major conferences. There was not a lot of scoring in that league along with a bunch of average teams cannibalizing themselves. When they do score, it seems to be balanced. Five players are hovering at or around 10 ppg.

The real question is…will this finally be the year for the Zags? Since reaching the Elite 8 and becoming America’s Cinderella ten years ago, Gonzaga has yet to improve on that plateau. Well, they should win this game easily. Their “draw” is relatively easy until UNC in the Sweet 16. I just refuse to be suckered in by this team anymore. Sorry Gottlieb.
Pick: Gonzaga 75, Akron 61

#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (24-8, 15-3 Sun Belt) vs.
#5 Illinois Fighting Illini (24-9, 11-7 Big Ten)
Finally, an upset I can get behind! Like VCU-UCLA, this one has upset written all over it. Illinois’ best player is injured. The Illini don’t score that many points to begin with (they allowed 38 points in a game against Penn State…AND LOST). And frankly, like the rest of the Big Ten, they aren’t that good. Plus, WKU pulled an upset last season against an Illinois-clone Drake and they’ve had a history of pulling out upsets over the course of the last 10-12 seasons.

The reason a lot of people aren’t jumping on the Western Kentucky bandwagon is a lot of people don’t know who the Hilltoppers are. I’ve seen a few of their games, and I like what I see. Four players average double digits. A.J. Slaughter has a great name and a game to go with it. Check him out if you get the chance. The Illini picked the wrong year to be a five seed.
Pick: Western Kentucky 71, Illinois 58

WEST REGION

Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA
#16 Chattanooga Mocs (18-16, 11-9 Southern) vs.
#1 Connecticut Huskies (27-4, 15-3 Big East)
We return to our regularly scheduled program of me ignoring 16 vs. 1 games. The Mocs were a thorn in the side of the NCAA and the tournament committee by winning Davidson’s conference. They kept Mr. Curry out of the spotlight and extra change from the NCAA coffers. They were punished by being offered up as a sacrifice to UConn.
Pick: Connecticut 84, Chattanooga 57

#9 Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 9-7 Big XII) vs.
#8 BYU Cougars (25-7, 12-4 Mountain West)
Whoa, I have a weird case of déjà vu. Didn’t this matchup happen last year? With the exact same seeding too? Oh wait, it did.

Apparently, the committee was convinced this year to have Texas A&M as a nine seed and BYU as an eight. For whatever reason, they couldn’t figure out a way for the Stormin’ Mormons to play on Thursday/Saturday unless it was against the Aggies. If you are not familiar with LDS rules, Mormons are not allowed to play games on Sundays. So the committee painted themselves into a corner and had to go with a rematch, which the committee typically hates to do. First, why couldn’t you switch the A&M with Butler? Seems to work just fine. Also, this is the second time the committee has bent over backwards to make sure the Cougars aren’t potentially playing on Sunday. I don’t remember the exact year, but within the last decade, the committee put BYU in a Friday/Sunday sub-regional, only to later inconvenience several teams and change the brackets after they came out. I understand trying to keep BYU from potentially playing on Sundays if possible. But if it can’t be helped, then tough luck for the Cougars. BYU can either break the rule and play on Sunday, or forfeit their tournament bid. No other team gets this kind of treatment.


Ahhhhhh! When Mormons attack! (Just not on a Sunday)

Last year I correctly picked Texas A&M over the Mormons. This year, the Aggies have been too inconsistent for my taste. This was proven just recently in a loss to dreadful Texas Tech in the Big XII Tournament. If Josh Carter doesn’t get going, the Aggies really have no chance to win. And he’s either very hot, or very cold. I’m going to take the more consistent Lee Cummard (not touching that one) and the Missionaries to advance. Thankfully they won’t be playing on Sunday.
Pick: BYU 75, Texas A&M 71

Sprint Center
Kansas City, MO
#15 Cal State Northridge Matadors (17-13, 11-5 Big West) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (31-3, 16-0 CUSA)
Eesh…this might as well be a 16 vs. 1 game. The Matadors did a nice job holding off Pacific out in the Big West. But there are way too many athletic bodies on the Tigers for CSN to contend with. We’ll talk about Memphis more in depth during the weekend. How much more in depth depends on their next opponent.
Pick: Memphis 76, Cal State Northridge 49

Rose Garden
Portland, OR
#13 Mississippi State Bulldogs (23-12, 9-7 SEC) vs.
#4 Washington Huskies (25-8, 14-4 Pac-10)
Poor Lorenzo Romar. After a couple of tough seasons, he finally gets the Huskies back on to the national stage. He wins the Pac-10 regular season title. His team gets a four seed. And he has to face a dangerous and hot BCS school in Mississippi State. Looking at the other 13 seeds (Portland State, Cleveland State and Akron), MSU is probably not the one he wanted to see.

Like the Bulldogs from Georgia last season, the Bulldogs from Starksville got hot at the right time and ran through an incredibly open and weak power conference tournament. The funny thing is, MSU had the talent to win a few more games than they did this season. They have the nation’s leading shot blocker, and perhaps the best big defensive player in Jarvis Varnado. They have a team that scores both inside and out. The Dogs have four capable scorers, so they’re balanced. Not sure what took them so long to get their act together.

Two things worry me about MSU. First, their best win outside of the lousy SEC was Western Kentucky. They also lost to Washington State, who the Huskies beat twice with relative ease. Second, Georgia was so exhausted from their run through the Tornado Tournament last season, that they put together a lackluster performance against Xavier in the first round. This game will be close, and I would have picked MSU if they beat anyone outside of their conference, but I think the Huskies prevail.
Pick: Washington 75, Mississippi State 68

#12 Northern Iowa Panthers (23-10, 14-4 MVC) vs.
#5 Purdue Boilermakers (25-9, 11-7 Big Ten)
Like I hinted at above, this is the only Big Ten that remotely intrigues me. We know Michigan State is good, but they aren’t necessarily fun to watch. Purdue can at least score. Robbie Hummel finally appears to be healthy, and joins E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson as the third scorer and a normally spelled name. The Panthers were able to win the Missouri Valley Conference, but it was not a typical year in the MVC. Other than Creighton, there wasn’t a whole lot of challenge for UNI, and losses to Iowa, Iowa State and Wyoming don’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence.
Pick: Purdue 72, Northern Iowa 57