2009 ACC Tournament

#4 Florida State Seminoles (25-8, 10-6 ACC) vs.
#3 Duke Blue Devils (27-6, 11-5)
ACC Championship Game

Not going to talk too much about this game since I probably won’t watch too much of this game. Talk a little bit about Maryland’s chances to make the tournament. Writing this now, before the end of the Baylor-Missouri and USC-Arizona State game means that it will be outdated by the time you read it. But this may be the only chance I get to talk about it.

As of now, assuming that at least two from the Baylor/USC/Mississippi State tripod lose, I’d say Maryland’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament is 60-40. If only one of those teams lose, it may be closer to 50-50 or even worse. It’s a shame that the Terps couldn’t get past Duke and assure themselves of a bid. If the committee has watched Maryland the past month, they would see a potential 10, 11 or 12 seed that could wreak havoc on better teams if given a chance. You know, exactly the type of team that makes March Madness entertaining.

Looking at the resume, there’s plenty of good to go along with plenty of bad. The good: strength of schedule (in the 20’s), playing in the #1 RPI conference in the country, wins over UNC, Michigan State, Wake Forest and Michigan and a good end to the season. The bad: the RPI (in the high 50’s/low 60’s), the sub-.500 conference record, the losses to Morgan State and Virginia and a blowout loss to then good, now awful Georgetown. So like the Terps tournament chances, the resume is 50-50.

This will be the first time that I can personally remember that the Terps fate going into Sunday is relatively unknown. The years that Maryland was making Sweet 16 runs, and later, Final Four runs, everyone knew the Terps would be in. The last three times Maryland didn’t make the tournament, it was a strong bet that Maryland wouldn’t be in. So this is going to be a new feeling on Selection Sunday. Do I think Maryland deserves to be in? Not really, but they do belong over teams like Penn State, Arizona, Creighton and others. If I’m I potential 5 or 6 seed, Maryland would scare the beejeezus out of me. No team wants to face a player like Greivis Vasquez in a single elimination tournament. Will the tournament committee see things that way? I have no clue.

As for the ACC Final…I like Florida State. I picked them to beat UNC and I think their defense will create all kinds of problems for the less athletic Dookies. The two teams met less than two weeks ago in a game that FSU dominated. It if wasn’t for a couple of real questionable calls (surprise, surprise), the Noles would have won. FSU is playing real well right now, and I think that Toney Douglas’ supporting cast helps carry the Seminoles to their first ACC crown. By the way, I’ll try my hardest to get my final bracketology out sometime tomorrow.

Florida State 68
Duke 63


ACC SEMIFINALS
Originially posted 3/14/09, 12:05 PM



#7 Maryland Terrapins (20-12, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#3 Duke Blue Devils (26-6, 11-5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
ACC Tournament – Semifinals

On March 3rd, Maryland got out-rebounded by Wake Forest 50-32. Yesterday, Maryland out-rebounded Wake Forest 44-40. That’s a 22 rebound swing. That’s incredible and completely unexpected. Even though the Deacons still got plenty of putback dunks, and they still managed to get 17 offensive rebounds, the Terps managed to 90% of the important boards in the second half. And they did so while James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu went over the back on just about every possession.

Now I won’t sit here and pretend that Maryland earned that win all on their own. I think some of it had to do with Wake Forest’s shot selection. The Deacons, despite having an overwhelming size advantage, decided to take 25 threes. They only made three of them. Now I know Johnson was in early foul trouble, and that forced Dino Gaudio to go smaller than he would have liked. Still, with Aminu, Chas McFarland and several other large bodies, Wake should have dominated inside. So kudos are due Landon Milbourne (11 boards), Dino Gregory (6 boards) and Sean Mosley (6 boards). And also kudos to the Deacons’ shot selection.

Now let the great debate begin. Has Maryland done enough? Three wins over Top 10 competition (and two of those in the last month) suggest yes. Losses to Morgan State and Virginia suggest no. It didn’t help last night that Baylor finally started living up to their tremendous potential and is still alive in the Big XII. They are only 40 minutes away from a bid. Southern Cal remains a problem in the Pac-10. It also doesn’t help that Xavier continues to choke in the A-10 Tournament year after year, making the A-10 a two or three team league every season. And will someone beat Auburn please! But losses by Michigan, Penn State, South Carolina, New Mexico (on Thursday to Wyoming) and Florida certainly help. Losses by fellow ACC-bubble residents Virginia Tech and Miami also ensure that if the ACC gets seven teams in the dance, the seventh will be from College Park. I see Bracketologist/Cheater Joe Lunardi put the Terps in his last four in during SportsCenter last night. That makes me feel slightly better, but not enough to assume that the two tournament wins are enough to get Maryland in. If the Terps are in, they are probably the very last team in at this point. And there are still two days of basketball left to play. A third win in the tournament would seal the deal, and go a long way to calming me down.

And look who it is! Our best friends! After being allowed to push Boston College up and down the court by the officials and the Eagles themselves, the Dookies are looking to continue their success against the Terps. I don’t know about you, but four straight losses to these pricks is enough. This mini-losing streak is starting to get annoying.

Since the ugly 41-point beat down the Dookies handed Maryland in front of the cheer-sheet reading virgins, Duke really hasn’t done a whole lot. Sure they beat Maryland in College Park. And sure they beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. But in both games, the Devils were heavily aided by the striped shirts. To make matters worse, Duke’s MVP Karl Hess didn’t work either of those games. I believe he is slated to use the whistle today. In other words, Maryland should expect to be on the wrong end of plenty of calls in this one. The only real impressive and dominating win for Duke since late January was their 10-point win over Wake. It was at home and they allowed the Deacons to score 91 points. We’ll give Ratface and company the benefit of the doubt and count it as impressive. Even though Maryland is coming off an even better win against the same Demon Deacons team.

Just like the last two games against these clowns, I really don’t expect Maryland to win. The Terps gave a great effort against the Dookies in College Park, despite dirty picks by White Stiff that were never called. Nevertheless, they came out on the wrong end. And I would doubt that Duke really cares about this game, except you know that Gerald Henderson’s Elbows and the Scheyer-Face Backup Singers are looking for revenge on Dave Neal. So there is some incentive for the Nerds to win this one. The question is this: can Gary Williams convince his team that they are not in The Dance? That they desperately need this game? That the real Duke team is the one that Maryland outplayed in College Park for 35 minutes and not the one that they played in Dirty Durham?

I’ve picked against Maryland twice in the ACC Tournament. So I feel compelled to keep picking against them for consistency sake. But I never pick against them when they play Duke. I think I’ll break the latter rule, and hope I’m wrong. By the way, Nolan Smith…keep your head up this time, buddy!

Duke 76
Maryland 74

#4 Florida State Seminoles (24-8, 10-6 ACC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (28-3, 13-3 ACC)
My intuition that UNC won’t win this tournament continues to linger. Their listless performance against Virginia Tech doesn’t help. It is now apparent why Ty Lawson was named ACC Player of the Year and not Tyler Hansbrough. Without Lawson yesterday, the Heels looked strictly average. If he doesn’t get healthy within the next couple of weeks, UNC is in real danger of failing to make the Final Four.

So again, I don’t think UNC will win this tournament. If they get to the finals, they will face either Duke or Maryland. They’ll have motivation to beat both, and it is likely that Lawson would return for that game. If they make the finals, they aren’t going to lose. So this is where Carolina will duck out. And it makes sense for them. They’ve already sealed a #1 seed in the tournament. They’ll be playing two games in Greensboro followed by two games in relatively close Memphis. They’ve already won the ACC regular season title and have won the past few tournaments. So why not get an extra day of rest, make sure Lawson is healthy, and focus on their real goal. I’m not saying the Heels will tank this game on purpose. I just don’t think they’ll have the motivation to win it.

Florida State is the best defensive team in the league. They have the big, physical and athletic bodies up front to limit the Heels frontcourt. And without Lawson, or without a healthy Lawson, there isn’t a Carolina response for Toney Douglas. As long as Lenny Hamilton manages to keep his distance, I think FSU pulls the upset.

Florida State 83
North Carolina 80


ACC QUARTERFINALS
Originially posted 3/13/09, 12:15 AM



#7 Maryland Terrapins (19-12, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (24-5, 11-5 ACC)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
ACC Tournament - Quarterfinals

Wait, you mean the ACC Tournament isn’t a one day thing? Weird, because it always seems like Maryland plays one game then leaves. At least that’s been the case the past few seasons.

Well it seems that the Terps don’t want to go gently into that good night just yet. It looked as if they would take their typical sabbatical in the first round when they got down by 13 in the first half and played with no sense of rhythm or urgency. But thanks to Eric Hayes making an appearance for only the second time this season, Maryland did just enough to scrape past State and actually give their fans a reason to stay in the host city for more than 24 hours.

So in a little bit of déjà vu, the Terps will follow a tough win against NC State with a game against Wake Forest. It’s déjà vu because that scenario just occurred less than two weeks ago. I was complaining that it was ridiculous that Maryland would only face their longtime ACC rivals once…and that it wouldn’t happen until March. Fate has a funny way of making me look foolish. I guess I complained too much, because Maryland has to go through the Demon Deacons again…this time to get an NCAA bid. In all honesty, I would have preferred to give Virginia another try.

There’s a good chance that Maryland will face the 1-3-1 zone that they saw a lot of in their loss to Wake back on March 3rd. With Al-Farouq Aminu at the top of the zone, Maryland had a hard time shooting threes and it was virtually impossible for them to drive. Wake has too many long bodies for the driving to be effective. Which means future NBA-star (sarcasm) Greivis Vasquez will have to do something more than his off-balanced runners in the lane. Hayes getting hot from the wing would certainly help again.

There’s really not much more to say about Wake that I didn’t say 10 days ago. This is the most talented team in the conference, but their inexperience is going to kill them sometime this weekend and somewhere in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve had a lot of curious losses to the bottom half of the conference (and last I checked, the bottom half of the conference was not that good). So who is to say that inexperience won’t rear its ugly head in this game? Well, I’m to say.

Just like I said before the game last week, there are just too many talented players, especially big ones, on Wake Forest. Maryland’s roster as it is right now just doesn’t have the horses to run with the Deacons. Factor in the fatigue that takes place when one team has to play a second game in 24 hours and the other one doesn’t, and all signs point to Maryland bowing out. But this is a desperate team, and I don’t think we’ll see the Terps lay an egg like in ACC tournaments past.

Wake Forest 77
Maryland 72

#8 Virginia Tech Hokies (18-13, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (27-3, 13-3 ACC)
I don’t think the Tar Heels are winning the ACC tournament. I just don’t see it. I’m not sure how much they care about it. This is a team that was built for the single purpose of winning a National Championship. Tyler Hansbrough and company have already won a pair of these things. They want a natty. Add in the fact that Ty Lawson seems to be banged up, and it’s hard to see this team rolling through Tech, FSU and either Duke or Wake over the course of three days.

So where do the Heels mail it in? I’m very tempted to say right here. Tech is still desperate for one more win, and a quality win at that. You’d figure an upset of Carolina would pretty much seal an invite for the Chrome Dome. And they have the benefit of playing another noon game. Those tend to be sloppy. But Tech shook off a little rust yesterday, while Carolina has been inactive since Sunday.

However, a loss in the quarterfinals could cost UNC a #1 seed in the real tournament. So they may have some inspiration to win this game. Plus, the Big Hamburger (Allen) has been struggling as of late. Without his inside game, the Hokies have nothing inside to counter the Hansbrough/Thompson/Green monster. Plus, Malcolm Delaney just finished going 1-10 from the floor, and I don’t think tired legs will help. So unless A.D. Vassallo manages to score 30+, I think the Heels can will themselves to an ugly win.

North Carolina 79
Virginia Tech 69

#12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (12-18, 2-14 ACC) vs.
#4 Florida State Seminoles (23-8, 10-6 ACC)
So Lewis Clinch finally got hot and the Jackets managed to fit all 200 of their fans in the Dome and beat a completely uninterested Clemson team. Oliver Purnell…way to motivate! If Clemson is supposed to take the “next step” this season, you may want to start by beating pitiful Georgia Tech. I know that the Tigers are in. And not being from North Carolina, the ACC Tournament doesn’t mean that much to them. But still, you have to beat Georgia Tech. Now the Tigers will have to sit around a week before getting a good mid-major team in the first round.

What Clemson’s loss also did was deprive us all of a Purnell-Hamilton chess match. It’s always fun as a fan to watch a game knowing that you could do better than either coach on the sideline. Alas, Leonard Hamilton has finally managed not to screw up a talented player (poor Al Thornton) and a decent supporting cast. Toney Douglas, in my opinion, is the best player in the conference. The Jackets will be feisty, but FSU’s defense gets the job done

Florida State 72
Georgia Tech 61

#6 Boston College Eagles (22-10, 9-7 ACC) vs.
#3 Duke Blue Devils (25-6, 11-5 ACC)
Looking at the ACC-first team, four of the players make sense. Hansbrough, Lawson, Douglas and McClinton all deserve to be on the team, and no one would argue their inclusion. But Gerald Henderson? No fucking way. He’s a scumbag. He has more dirty elbows thrown than points this season. You put a Clemson jersey on him, and he’d be lucky to make the 3rd team. How he makes it over Tyrese Rice or Jeff Teague is beyond me.

Unless Rice takes his revenge in this game, I think Duke will handle BC pretty easily. This was a great draw for Duke. Much better than Virginia Tech. Way better than Clemson or Florida State. I think BC’s win in Chestnut Hill over the Dookies was pretty much a fluke. Since that time, BC has held steady at mediocre while the Devils have improved slightly. They’ll get this one. By the way, I was only off one point on my prediction of the UVA-BC final score.

Duke 83
Boston College 75


ACC FIRST ROUND
Originally posted at 3/12/09, 1:29 AM



#10 NC State Wolfpack (16-13, 6-10 ACC) vs.
#7 Maryland Terrapins (18-12, 7-9 ACC)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
ACC Tournament 1st Round

Really, who couldn’t see that coming? That loss was so predictable, I didn’t even predict it! But honestly, if you have been following Maryland basketball for the past three or four seasons, then you had to have some sort of feeling that a loss to awful Virginia was going to happen. Especially because the Terps had been playing so well and because their tournament life might have very well hinged on the outcome. All the more reason to expect a letdown.

As for the second matchup with NC State in less than two weeks…I knew it was going to happen as soon as Greivis Vasquez sunk that unnecessary three at the buzzer in the Terps 11-point win in Raleigh. If Ben McCauley didn’t have 18,000 witnesses around him, he might have gone for Vasquez’s jugular right then and there. It was a stupid move, and as soon as he did it, I started cursing because I knew that it was likely that the Terps would draw State in the first round of the tournament. Lo and behold, there are the Wolfpack.

For years under Herb Sendek, the Wolfpack routinely created trouble in the ACC Tournament. If Maryland is the team that never plays will in this tourney, then NC State is their antithesis. Even under Sidney Lowe, who has somehow managed to replace Oliver Purnell and Leonard Hamilton as worst coach in the conference, the Pack have made noise in the tournament. Just two years ago, as a ten seed, State made it to the finals and was just a couple of minutes away from beating UNC. Combine bad history with extra motivation and a crushing loss to UVA, and it is a bad combination for the Terps entering this game. And now it appears that Vasquez had the brilliant idea to announce that he would declare for the draft less than 24 hours before tipoff. Brilliant! What better way to say "fuck the rest of my team". Just when I think I can start liking the guy, he does something like this and becomes a huge distraction. Perfect timing.

If Lowe is smart (and thank goodness he isn’t), all he has to do is look at the last two games that Maryland played. The Terps faced a 1-3-1 zone against Wake Forest and a standard 3-2 zone against Virginia. Both zones effectively shut Maryland down. The 1-3-1 worked for Wake because Al-Farouq Aminu was playing at the top of the zone. The Pack don’t have anyone of his caliber, so I don’t think that will be an option for them. But just about any team in the country can play a 3-2 or 2-3 zone to some level of effectiveness. All Lowe has to do is coach them a little. Assuming he isn’t distracted by his technicolor red blazer.

Again, given Maryland’s ineptitude in this event, to hope for more than one win, or even the one win itself, is pretty much pointless. Regardless of whether the tournament is in Greensboro, Washington, Tampa or Atlanta, Maryland never plays well and the four Carolina schools always seem to play much better than they are capable of. And only some of that has to do with the officials. Ok, maybe more than some. Still, I have a feeling McCauley goes off in this one, and the Terps will have another disappointing first round exit at the ACC Tournament.

NC State 66
Maryland 64

#9 Miami Hurricanes (18-11, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#8 Virginia Tech Hokies (17-13, 7-9 ACC)
I’m sure there was a lot of frustration last night in Blacksburg and Coral Gables while watching Cleveland State take a bid from the power conferences. These two teams both need two wins, and since the winner in this brawl will draw UNC, that’s unlikely to happen.

Since beating FSU in January, the Canes have been sleepwalking. They dropped 7 of their last 11, including losses to NC State and Georgia Tech. The inside game that used to be so dominant has disappeared. Jack McClinton’s numbers have stayed high, but the rest of his team has sunk around him. While Miami is still relatively deep, they have basically become a one-man team. If anyone has seen Jamie Dews or Lance Hurdle, please call Frank Haith immediately.

As for Chrome Dome and the Hokies, they are a three-man team. 9th-year senior A.D. Vassallo, Jeff Allen and Malcolm Delaney score 72% of Virginia Tech’s points…and it’s been closer to 80% in conference play. There have been several games where they’ll all score 15 or more, and the rest of the team can’t score ten combined. If one of them has an off day, and it’s usually Allen when he’s not flipping the bird, Tech really has no chance. However, they are facing a team that only has one player competing at full capacity, so the Hokies squeak one out.

Virginia Tech 70
Miami 65

#12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-18, 2-14 ACC) vs.
#5 Clemson Tigers (23-7, 9-7)
Unless Oliver Purnell has told his team to tank this game and focus on the big prize at the beginning of next month, there should be no way that the Jackets stage an upset here. None. With that said, the “host” team should at least make this one closer than expected. Hopefully this tournament goes more smoothly than the one played in the Georgia Dome last season. It would be nice to avoid any direct tornado strikes over the course of the next four days. And just in case something happens, maybe the next option over at the engineering school won’t have another leak in the roof. How embarrassing and ironic that was.

Clemson 81
Georgia Tech 70

#11 Virginia Cavaliers (10-17, 4-12 ACC) vs.
#6 Boston College Eagles (21-10, 9-7)
As with Clemson above, unless the Eagles are already thinking about next weekend, they should win this game easily. Virginia just made their season by beating Maryland. Now the team will quit on Dave Leitao as they have all year.

Boston College is going to be a real interesting case study in the NCAA Tournament. Barring a brain fart in this one, I’ll be able to talk about them more as the week progresses. Right now I have them as a seven seed, but I believe a case can be made to have them as high as a six and as low as a ten. Then there’s the question on what they’re actually going to do in the tournament once they get there. I think I know what they’re going to do in this game, and it won’t be pretty for the Cavs.

Boston College 77
Virginia 63