2009 NCAA Tournament: From California To Calipari

#10 Maryland Terrapins (21-13, 7-9 ACC) vs.
#2 Memphis Tigers (32-3, 16-0 CUSA)
NCAA Tournament 2nd Round, West Region
Sprint Center – Kansas City, MO

Fantastic win for the Terps, considering that they didn’t play all that well for the last 10 minutes of the first half and the first 10 minutes of the second half. I keep saying that it really doesn’t matter where the Terps go from here. A tournament bid and tournament win in a season with little talent is more than I expected. It’s certainly more than what most people expected. Assuming that Greivis Vasquez stays, the entire team will return intact with at least two legit big men coming in. And Lance Stephenson may not be far behind either.

As for the game against Cal, the Terps defense woke up just in time for the ACC and NCAA tournament. Now the defensive result against the Bears may have just been a result of California finally running into a team that doesn’t play in the Pac-10. But this was the first time that I can remember a Gary Williams team switching defense from possession to possession. The Terps were in man. Then they were in several different zones. Then back to man. They would full court press. Then not press. Then three-quarters court pressure. It was a potpourri that kept the Bears guessing. And other than a 5 to 7 minute timeframe in the beginning of the second half, the Bears never really got into any rhythm.

Also showing up just in time for March is Eric Hayes. It’s taken him almost three full seasons to get the confidence to look for his shot. He finally has it. It used to make Maryland fans nervous to see Hayes spot up, even though it didn’t happen a lot. Now Terps fans actually expect him to make shots whenever he squares. I had my doubts about him coming off the bench, but Gary has been proven right again. I’m still not a big fan of Sean Mosley getting the minutes he’s getting, but it does seem that Hayes is much more comfortable coming off the bench.

Other than Hayes, and the obvious contributions from Vasquez, the Terps got 15 points from Dave Neal. His dream season just won’t end. Almost every shot he made was crucial. Adrian Bowie and Landon Milbourne also rediscovered their games. Everything clicked for the Terps in their win over Cal…well, at least everything clicked in the final 10 minutes. The best news for Maryland? The Terps won using only seven players. Cliff Tucker played for two minutes, so he should be well rested to contribute this weekend. Why he played only two minutes is an issue to debate. But we won’t focus on that now. I fully expect him to see increased playing time against Memphis.

Ok, let’s focus on the Tigers, and do it quickly. Unfortunately I don’t have a lot of time to spend on this game or any other. It’s a shame since it could be the last time I talk about the Terps this season. But that’s the way it goes. Anyway, Memphis owns the best record of any team in the tournament, checking in at 32-3. 19 of those wins were racked up against pitiful Conference USA. The best that conference could offer up was 11-loss Tulsa, 12-loss Houston and 12-loss UAB. So in other words, as is the case every season, it was Memphis and everyone else. The Tigers lost close in late November against Memphis. They lost close in late December against Syracuse. And they lost in early December in overtime at Georgetown. That’s considerably better than Maryland fared against the Hoyas. Although I think both Memphis and Maryland have the last laugh. They do have relatively recent wins at Tennessee and at Gonzaga. They also own one against average Cincinnati. So what does that tell us about Memphis? As usual, not much. This is a team that no one can ever gauge because of the competition they play after the year turns. They could be really good. Or their record could be severely inflated.

Last year, Memphis was legit. Based on their last outing against Cal State – Northridge, the jury is still out on the 08-09 Tigers. What we do know is that Memphis is once again one of the most athletic teams in the country. They are all long and lean, and most are lightning quick. They are led by freshman guard Tyreke Evans (not Tyree Evans, the guard who had now infamous problems qualifying at UMD). This one-and-done is averaging almost 17 points a game. He grabs more than five rebounds per and averages almost four assists. He’s fast. He’s a good ball-handler. And he actually plays defense. Helping Evans out is one of Memphis’ few returning players, Robert Dozier. The often foul-prone forward is managing 13 and 7 when he manages to stay on the court. Shawn Taggert, Antonio Anderson and Doneal Mack are also all big contributors. And Roburt Sallie, who has been quiet most of the season, managed 35 points in their win over the Matadors. He is an occasional three-point specialist and someone Maryland may want to keep an eye on.

The leader of this band of future NBA players is John Calipari. During his career, Gary has had the best of Calipari. In 1994, the Terps came into the NCAA tournament as the 10 seed. After beating Saint Louis in the first round, Gary and company advanced to take on 2nd seeded UMass. The coach at UMass was Calipari, who employed (probably literally) Marcus Camby. Maryland had a rather easy time with the Minutemen and Calipari, advancing to the Sweet 16. History repeating itself would be nice.

Five years ago, the Terps and Tigers met in Massachusetts for a preseason tournament. Again, Maryland rolled over a Calipari-led team. Now that Memphis team was not as talented as the current outfit, and this Terps team is not as talented as the one from five years ago, but the coaches are still the same. Calipari can recruit well (and probably pay well), but his coaching skills leave a little to be desired.

All one needs to do is check the game footage from their game against Northridge. The Matadors threw a couple of different zones at Memphis. For 35 minutes, the Tigers and their freshman point guard looked lost. They couldn’t get anything going in their half court sets. Their frustrations on offense turned in to frustrations on defense. The typical run and gun didn’t work because the Tigers weren’t really trying on the defensive end. Until the vast athletic advantage that Memphis possessed kicked in at the end of the game, the Tigers were easily outplayed by an inferior Northridge team.

So look for Maryland to use a lot of zones. Also, since the Terps are one of the best teams in the country in terms of turnover margin, the Tigers offense shouldn’t have the fast breaks they need to go on a quick run that can change the game. Being extra careful with the ball and throwing some zones at Memphis will help keep it close. I just don’t see Maryland winning. There are too many tall players. There are too many guys who shoot well. There are too many players that are good at contesting shots. This team is much more balanced than the Cal squad Maryland just disposed of. If Vasquez doesn’t go off for 30 plus, I don’t think Maryland will be able to score enough. It’s been a great run in the last month, and I hope it continues. I wish I could be more optimistic. I expect the Terps to keep it close – and who knows – with some more luck, they could pull off another upset.

Memphis 76
Maryland 67


As for the rest of the country, I was doing extremely well up until midnight. Then FSU somehow blew a 12-point lead to Wisconsin, a team that sometimes struggles to score 12 points all together. Ohio State lost a game in which their opponents gave them 22 turnovers. And if anyone has seen Wake Forest recently, the concerned citizens in Winston-Salem would like to know. Who would have thought the last three ACC teams alive would UNC, Duke…and Maryland! Crazy. I was 25-7 in the first round, which is still pretty good. I landed my upset picks of Arizona, Dayton, USC and WKU. So all and all, not bad.

EAST REGION

Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, NC
***The Predictor Game of the Day***
#7 Texas Longhorns (23-11, 9-7 Big XII) vs.
#2 Duke Blue Devils (29-6, 11-5 ACC)
My favorite part of the Duke-Binghamton game was when every single Bearcats starter was whistled for one foul in the first three minutes of the game. Duke was in the one-and-one bonus before the first TV timeout. If that generous officiating happens again, poor Texas won’t stand a chance. On the assumption it doesn’t, I like the Longhorns here. Turkish sensation Dogus Balbay has locked down the UT point position, and the Longhorns have been playing good ball ever since. Texas is more physical inside than most teams that the Dookies have played in the ACC. And A.J. Abrams is one of the most dangerous scorers left in the tournament. The more balanced, and bigger Longhorns advance.
Pick: Texas 79, Duke 75

Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA
#6 UCLA Bruins (26-8, 13-5 Pac-10) vs.
#3 Villanova Wildcats (27-7, 13-5 Big East)
Definition of fair: the opposite of what the Bruins have to go through. After playing a knock down, drag out game against VCU (By the way Ratface, did you see what Darren Collison did against Eric Maynor on the final shot? That’s how a team is supposed to play defense against a premier scorer. Good thing your team couldn’t do it two years ago.), UCLA has to play a virtual road game at 10:10 am back on the West Coast. All signs point to Villanova in this one.
Pick: Villanova 68, UCLA 62

SOUTH REGION

Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, NC
#8 LSU Tigers (27-7, 13-3 SEC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (29-4, 13-3 ACC)
The Tigers are the only team left carrying the SEC banner entering the first weekend. Based on how they barely squeaked by Butler, and how Tennessee and Mississippi State played, the SEC is as bad as everyone thought it was. With or without Ty Lawson, the Heels roll here.
Pick: North Carolina 92, LSU 74

Sprint Center
Kansas City, MO
#10 Michigan Wolverines (21-13, 9-9 Big Ten) vs.
#2 Oklahoma Sooners (28-5, 13-3 Big XII)
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the SEC, was the performance put on by the Big XII. The power of the Great Plains had a spotless 6-0 record in round one, and most of the games weren’t close. Meanwhile, the Wolverines needed some Oliver Purnell coaching (or whatever it is he does on the sideline) to make it through to round two. Sooners should have no problem with the smaller and slower Wolverines.
Pick: Oklahoma 81, Michigan 68

Rose Garden
Portland, OR
#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (25-8, 15-3 Sun Belt) vs.
#4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-5, 14-0 WCC)
WKU had no problems dispatching an overmatched and vastly overrated Illinois team. Gonzaga took a siesta for the first half of their game against Akron before taking command early in the 2nd. It was a rather easy win for both teams, and both should be well rested. That’s good because neither team is exceptionally deep. If this is the best Zags team in years, then they should have another easy win. Something tells me this is going to much, much closer than expected. In the end, the Hilltoppers will be one possession short from their second straight Sweet 16 trip.
Pick: Gonzaga 80, Western Kentucky 78

WEST REGION

Wachovia Center
Philadelphia, PA
#9 Texas A&M Aggies (24-9, 9-7 Big XII) vs.
#1 Connecticut Huskies (28-4, 15-3 Big East)
Well, I said that Texas A&M was a streaky team. I just didn’t expect them to be on a hot streak on Thursday. The Aggies hit their first ten shots and never looked back against the Stormin’ Mormons. Of the seven games I lost, only Wake’s ugly performance against Cleveland State made me look worse than A&M’s dominating game over BYU. The other five games I got wrong were decided by a total of 17 points and three overtimes. A hot A&M team could give UConn trouble, but the taller guards for the Huskies should give Josh Carter and company fits.
Pick: Connecticut 77, Texas A&M 69

Rose Garden
Portland, OR
#5 Purdue Boilermakers (26-9, 11-7 Big Ten) vs.
#4 Washington Huskies (26-8, 14-4 Pac-10)
If anyone missed Jon Brockman’s performance against Mississippi State, then you missed a treat. It may have been one of the best big-man performance of the year. Not only did he shut down Jarvis Varnardo on both ends of the floor, he finally looked like the NBA prospect that he’s been claimed to be. The 14 rebound-game was really impressive. Even though Purdue has a great backcourt, the Huskies have the obvious advantage in the paint, and their backcourt can hold their own. I originally had Purdue advancing in my locked bracket. That will obviously stay the same. Here, I’m going to change my pick and go with UW. Brockman, Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter will be too much in what should be a home game for Washington.
Pick: Washington 84, Purdue 77