2009 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, Day 2

After a 3-1 evening last night, the overall tournament record is a very solid 41-11. Unfortunately, my first final four team was taken out. Thanks a lot John Calipari. Way to show up against Maryland and then fail to make the trip out to Glendale. However, I would like to sincerely thank Jay Wright and Villanova for getting rid of the scum from Durham. Another nice season by Ratface and company...more All-American talent wasted. Good job Nerds, until next season you pricks.

SOUTH REGION

FedEx Forum
Memphis, TN
#3 Syracuse Orange (28-9, 11-7 Big East) vs.
#2 Oklahoma Sooners (29-5, 13-3 Big XII)
Zone, zone, zone. That’s all I’ve heard the last week when people start talking about this game. Blake Griffin, the consensus #1 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, won’t be able to handle the infamous Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone. Oh really?

Last I checked, nine other teams this season managed to fight through the Syracuse zone. Most of them were not as talented as the Sooners. Also last I checked, Griffin and the Sooners have won 29 games this season. No team wins 29 games against BCS competition with only one great player. The Sooners happen to be a very good team.

The argument for Syracuse to win this game is that their patented 2-3 zone is tailor-made to stop Blake Griffin. And by collapsing on whichever Sooner is inside, and crashing on the glass, there is a rational argument to be made for that happening. Griffin may not have a great game. But the fact that he’s out there is going to create enough of a distraction for the rest of this team to have big games. First off, there’s the other Griffin. Taylor has had a very good season as well. No, he’s not as polished as his younger brother. But he’s still averaging 10 and 6 a game, which is pretty good considering that Blake takes 22.5 and 14.5 a game for himself. Then there is Willie Warren. NO ONE is talking about this guy. Along with Tyreke Evans, he may be the most NBA-ready point guard in the entire country. And there are three solid role players in Tony Crocker, Austin Johnson and Juan Pattillo. So it’s not as if the Sooners are going to be lost out there without a typical outing from Blake Griffin. And it’s not like Griffin is only going to score 12 points and grab 6 boards. I’m willing to bet that he gets close to his averages.

There are two ways to beat Syracuse’s zone, and if the Sooners are patient with it, they have the talent to do both. The first way is to execute crisp passing. With Warren at the point, they should be able to accomplish this and get the zone out of sync. The second way to beat is to shoot threes. While no one on Oklahoma shoots remarkably well from beyond the arc, Warren, Johnson, Crocker and Pattillo all shoot 35% or better from out there. All it takes is one or two of them to go off to spread the zone out and make the inside more susceptible to Griffin’s dominance. OU should be able to accomplish that, and pull away in the 2nd half.
Pick: Oklahoma 75, Syracuse 65

***The Predictor Game of the Day***
#4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-5, 14-0 WCC) vs.
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (30-4, 13-3 ACC)
I’ve also heard a lot of talk this week that Gonzaga can actually go talent for talent with UNC in this game. I don’t see it. The Zags are very talented. They are relatively deep, especially for a mid-major. Their entire starting five averages 10 points or more a game. But you can’t compare Josh Heytvelt to Tyler Hansbrough. You can’t compare Austin Daye to Deon Thompson. You can’t compare Matt Bouldin to Danny Green. Sure, statistically those guys are similar. But Gonzaga was doing most of that against the West Coast Conference. The Heels were doing it against the ACC. While Heytvelt’s stats may compare favorable to Hansbrough’s, the Zags don’t pass the “look test”.

This is by far one of the best Gonzaga teams that have come along in awhile. The Heytvelt-Daye-Bouldin-Pargo-Downs starting five is excellent. Maybe the best starting five left in the tournament…behind Carolina. Against Pitt or UConn, or even Louisville, I would really consider taking the Bulldogs to spring an upset. Especially with a great coach like Mark Few. And I love watching Jeremy Pargo. He is 6’8” power forward in a small shooting guard’s body. But there are two reasons I’m not going to go with the Zags. The first is UNC’s superior depth. When the Heels need to go to the bench, they can pull out Ed Davis and Larry Drew and Bobby Frasor. When Gonzaga goes to their bench, they have Steven Gray and a bunch of guys who play but don’t contribute. It’s one thing to have depth and capable players. The Zags have that. But other than Gray, Gonzaga can’t expect much production from the rest of their bench. At least not the way that UNC can.

The second reason I’m going with the Heels is simple. Gonzaga may have the offensive firepower to score with UNC, but they are undersized at just about every position. On top of that, their defense has been questionable all season…at least when they’ve played outside the WCC. Just this past Saturday, they gave up 81 points to Western Kentucky. WKU isn’t bad. They are a good offensive team. But they aren’t UNC. The Heels are far and away the best offense that Gonzaga has faced this season, and I don’t see any way they are going to stop them.
Pick: North Carolina 88, Gonzaga 83

MIDWEST REGION

Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, IN
#12 Arizona Wildcats (21-13, 9-9 Pac-10) vs.
#1 Louisville Cardinals (30-5, 16-2 Big East)
I don't think anyone can question the inclusion of Arizona anymore. You had to know a team that had both Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger on it could compete at a national level. It also helps to play Cleveland State in the second round, but I digress. Anyway, good job by the Cats to shut all the blowhard analysts up. Stop whining Gottlieb.

As for this game, I think that Arizona runs into the wrong team. The Wildcats are a very athletic team that rarely plays as a single unit. They do well against teams that may show a good deal of teamwork, but are just overmatched in terms of pure athleticism. Zona struggles against other very athletic teams. A meeting against Wake Forest in the second round would have doomed the Wildcats. They caught a break in that round, but not in the regional semis. The Cardinals have several NBA prospects of their own and also work better as a team than Arizona does.

Terrence Williams, Edgar Sosa and Samardo Samuels get all the pub, but Earl Clark has quietly put together Louisville's best individual season. He leads the team with almost 14 points a game. He also grabs nine boards to go along with three dimes a game. He's a 6'9", 225 brute of a forward, but he plays a lot like a guard. The term "point forward" can be used to describe Clark. He is going to make a NBA team very happy next season. He is very similar to Andre Igoudala and Amare Stoudemire.

Look for Rick Petino's hybrid zones and pressure defenses to frustrate the exciteable Wildcats. Hill is the most reliable Arizona player, but has trouble against players as big, or as wide as he is. He'll have to face several tall Cardinals, and I see him on the bench in foul trouble and not making much of an impact in this game. Without him, Budinger and Nic Wise will have to carry the load themselves. I'm not sure they can do that against a better overall team.
Pick: Louisville 81, Arizona 68

#3 Kansas Jayhawks (27-7, 14-2 Big XII) vs.
#2 Michigan State Spartans (28-6, 15-3 Big Ten)
I think it's about time that the Big Ten bowed out of this tournament. As I guaranteed, only two of their seven teams would make the Sweet 16, and I expect that both of them are going to get bounced before the regional finals.

Now in all seriousness, I'm not picking against MSU because of my hatred of the Big Ten, I'm picking against them because Kansas is the better team and they have been playing better basketball for the past month. The Spartans were in cruise control for the final month of the regular season, and mailed in their conference tournament performance. Then they played terribly for 25 minutes against Robert Morris and 38 minutes against Southern Cal. The Jayhawks haven't played great in March, but they put together a complete performance at home against Mizzou, and they've looked good in three of their four halves in the tournament. So I'll spare you more analysis of this one, I think Kansas wins rather easily.
Pick: Kansas 77, Michigan State 65