The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 3/10/09

Here is the potentially last Top 25. I will have an updated bids and bracketology before the Selection Show, and maybe even Friday(ish) as well. But I don't see the need to add in another Top 25. And by the way, the Top 25 was done before Monday's games, while the bids and bracketology was done after.

1. North Carolina (27-3), LW-1: Had a rather easy time with Duke in the 2nd half and clinched another ACC regular season title
2. Pittsburgh (28-3), LW-4: Season sweep of UConn, along with a newfound offense has me taking the Panthers a little more seriously. But just a little.
3. Connecticut (27-3), LW-2: Coming up empty twice against Pitt doesn't bode well for the tournament. This has not been the same team since the injury to Kevin Dyson.
4. Oklahoma (27-4), LW-3: Not sure what the excuse will be after losing to Missouri. Can't blame it on an injury to Blake Griffin.
5. Memphis (28-3), LW-5: Ho-hum...just another easy week in Conference USA. Only the tournament will tell us how good the Tigers really are.
6. Louisville (25-5), LW-6: Making a strong push for a #1 seed, but they'll probably have to win the Big East Tournament.
7. Wake Forest (24-5), LW-7: Strong week with wins on the road against Maryland and Clemson team that was playing for a bye week in the ACC Tournament.
8. Michigan State (25-5), LW-10: Here come the Spartans, sneaking up the rankings again. This is probably the only Big Ten team that will make it past the first weekend of the Big Dance.
9. Villanova (25-6), LW-11: Survived a week where they had to play two teams that were fighting for their tournament lives and managed to easily beat both of them (Notre Dame and Providence).
10. Kansas (25-6), LW-8: What was that blowout in Lubbock all about? Game wasn't close from start to finish
11. Duke (25-6), LW-9: Duke continues to prove that they will struggle against other Top 25 teams. This team still has a look of one that will lose in the NCAA 2nd round.
12. Gonzaga (26-5), LW-13: As is the case every year with Gonzaga, and just like Memphis, we won't know about this team until they get to face real competition.
13. Missouri (25-6), LW-12: The good for Mizzou was their upset of Oklahoma. The bad was an ugly road loss at Texas A&M.
14. Washington (24-7), LW-16: The Huskies really are the best team in the Pac-10. Do they deserve to be this high nationally? I kind of doubt it.
15. UCLA (24-7), LW-17: The Bruins have recovered somewhat since a terrible February. Wins against the Oregon schools and losses by the other teams ahead of them move them up to 15th.
16. Clemson (23-7), LW-15: Beat Virginia pretty easily then played well for 30 minutes at Wake Forest before falling. They draw the unwanted fifth seed in the ACC Tournament however.
17. BYU (24-6), LW-21: Winners of 9 of the last 10, the Cougars are starting to show the promise that evaded them in January. This may be the best mid-major team other than Memphis.
18. LSU (25-6), LW-14: A bad week for the Tigers. A loss to Vanderbilt wasn't terrible until it was coupled with a loss at Auburn. Not the way for the best team in a weak conference to enter the SEC Tournament.
19. Florida State (23-8), LW-19: Good win against a desperate Virginia Tech team was partnered with a close loss to Duke that should have been a win. Another case of an ACC team having to play 5-on-8.
20. Xavier (24-6), LW-18: The Muskies followed a strong win against Dayton to clinch the A-10 by sleepwalking in a dreadful loss at Richmond. This team is prime for a first round upset in the NCAA's.
21. Butler (26-4), LW-25: Simply a case of having no one else to put in the #21 spot other than Butler. Still not enough offense to scare anyone in a couple of weeks.
22. St. Mary's (25-6), LW-NR: Winners of 5 straight without their best player, they now get Patty Mills back for the NCAA's. A trip to the finals will be necessary to ensure an at large bid.
23. Syracuse (23-8), LW-NR: Even though it's been against the dregs of the Big East, the Orange have finally put together a winning streak to guarantee themselves they won't be going to the NIT.
24. Arizona State (22-8), LW-21: I was singing their praises a few weeks ago. Now I don't know what's wrong with Sendek's bunch. A win over California saved them from dropping from the rankings entirely.
25. Marquette (23-8), LW-20: This team is falling apart after losing Dominic James. They still have talent in the backcourt, but the Eagles have basically packed it in until next season.


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, there are the small conferences. The conference leaders are in italics, tournament winners in bold.

POWER
ACC (6): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (7): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (3): LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (4): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Bowling Green
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Binghamton
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Cal State - Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: American
Southern: Chattanooga, Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State

Notes: I keep seeing that Michigan is a lock at this point? Really? I don't see the committee taking eight Big Ten teams. Especially because a couple on the fringe will get knocked out in the first round of their tournament. And there will be upsets elsewhere. Seven teams...tops. Meanwhile, I think that St. Mary's has done enough to get a bid, as has New Mexico (which went 12-4 in a brutal Mountain West). Creighton didn't make the MVC final, so they don't make it. Davidson, as of right now, may be the last team in to this tournament. It will be very interesting, and as of right now anybody's guess, as to what the committee will do with them.


THE BRACKETS

BOSTON REGION
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Morgan State
(8) Utah vs. (9) St. Mary’s
Boise
(4) Missouri vs. (13) Siena
(5) Xavier vs. (12) VCU
Miami
(3) Duke vs. (14) Binghamton
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Arizona
Kansas City
(7) West Virginia vs. (10) South Carolina
(2) Memphis vs. (15) Bowling Green

INDIANAPOLIS REGION
Dayton
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Radford/Alabama State
(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Ohio State
Portland
(4) UCLA vs. (13) American
(5) Florida State vs. (12) New Mexico
Minneapolis
(3) Kansas vs. (14) North Dakota State
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Penn State
Greensboro
(7) California vs. (10) Utah State
(2) Wake Forest vs. (15) Chattanooga

MEMPHIS REGION
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Morehead State
(8) Texas vs. (9) Wisconsin
Boise
(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Western Kentucky
(5) LSU vs. (12) Northern Iowa
Philadelphia
(3) Villanova vs. (14) Cornell
(6) Arizona State vs. (11) UNLV
Minneapolis
(7) Boston College vs. (10) Texas A&M
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Robert Morris

PHOENIX REGION
Kansas City
(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Stephen F. Austin
(8) Illinois vs. (9) Tennessee
Miami
(4) Clemson vs. (13) East Tennessee State
(5) Syracuse vs. (12) Davidson
Portland
(3) Washington vs. (14) Weber State
(6) BYU vs. (11) Dayton
Dayton
(7) Butler vs. (10) Minnesota
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Cal State – Northridge